2016 French Open Odds: Can Murray Defeat Djokovic?
The 2016 French Open has gone largely as planned, save for an injury forcing Roger Federer to withdraw, Rafael Nadal not making it to the end and Andy Murray making it to his first French Open final ever.
Federer’s injury obviously opened the door for others to advance, while Nadal faltered and missed the championship round for the second year in a row. This wouldn’t be startling news for most star tennis players, but considering this was Nadal’s playground since 2005 (nine title appearances), it’s fairly shocking.
The only real normalcy comes in Murray’s opponent that awaits, with Novak Djokovic looking to take care of some unfinished business after falling short to Stan Wawrinka in 2015.
— The Guardian (@guardian) June 3, 2016
Murray, oddly enough, made it to his first ever final at this event by taking down Wawrinka. Is that foreshadowing that Murray will be able to take down his nemesis in Njokovic and find his first ever French Open title? Only time will tell, and we all get to find out this Sunday.
Murray vs. Djokovic Odds
Djokovic enters the French Open final as the obvious (-1.5, 175) favorite, and for various reasons. The biggest is he’s been to this stage numerous times (three times in the last four years) and has come incredibly close to taking home the trophy.
Like Murray, Djokivic has come up short each time and on Sunday will be chasing his first ever French Open title.
One other advantage Djokovic clearly has is in the matchup, seeing as he’s dominated Andy Murray in head to head showdowns throughout their careers. To this point, Djokovic has claimed 23 of 33 official clashes on the tennis court. The stranglehold was temporarily lifted when Murray topped Djokovic in the ATP World Tour Masters in Rome, but before that upset win, Djokovic had secured four straight wins over Murray and 12 of the last 13 showdowns.
Djokovic is 23-10 vs. Murray, including a 3-1 edge on clay. Murray won last meeting, which was on clay, in Rome final.
— ESPNTennis (@ESPNTennis) June 3, 2016
An argument can be made that Murray has shifted the power with his most recent win and that with neither of these elite tennis pros having won at the French Open, this one is totally up for grabs.
Murray (+1.5 +135) could be an interesting bet when you consider the odds, too, especially with an intriguing +260 Moneyline. Of course, Djokovic enters as the clear favorite at -325 per Bovada, so the real upside here is in the payout, not the odds.
If you’re not crazy about picking one of these guys straight up, consider throwing some money down on how the match plays out.
Per Bovada, there are six possible ways this thing could go and they all carry different odds:
- 3-0 Djokovic +155
- 3-1 Djokovic +255
- 3-2 Djokovic +400
- 3-0 Murray +900
- 3-1 Murray +800
- 3-2 Murray +700
Clearly, rolling with Djokovic seems like the safer, more logical play. He’s dominated Murray for his entire career, has severely owned him over the past three years and makes good sense as a title winner after coming so close three times before.
Of course, Murray does have 10 career wins over Novak, he won the last meeting and upon reaching his first ever French Open final, it’s fair to argue all records and history could go out the window.
As cool as it’d be to win some cash off of Murray and see him take down Djokovic, it’s just not likely. Given Novak’s hold over Murray, it’s very hard to believe he both drops a second straight meeting to him and gives up the French Open title in the process.
Djokovic is ranked #1 for a reason and he’s going to make it happen on Sunday to earn his first French Open championship. The #2 player in the world may make it difficult and makes for better betting, but the result should match up with the history we’ve seen between these two.
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