2016 MLB Betting: 4 Upsets to Consider on Thursday
Chasing upsets in Major League Baseball can be a ton of fun. It’s even better when you listen to our advice and get the right ones.
We’ve had some success lately and with a nice slate arriving for Thursday night, we thought it’d make some sense to scour the MLB betting airwaves and see what upsets could be worth targeting.
Here are four upsets to consider for Thursday night’s MLB slate, and why:
Mets Over Cardinals
Anytime Adam Wainwright toes the rubber, the Cardinals (-176) are a decent team to bet against. That wasn’t the case even a year ago, but Wainwright has been extremely volatile in 2016 and he simply can’t be trusted.
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 25, 2016
It doesn’t help that the New York Mets (+161) are getting healthy at just the right time, either. They sport heavy bets via Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes and while they haven’t been amazing on the year, they can pop up out of nowhere and bring some trouble.
That just might happen tonight, when they get Wainwright, who they lit up for 11 hits and four runs the last time they saw him. New York has Seth Lugo in their corner, which doesn’t add to the allure, but it could be another reason why the betting action sways to the Cardinals.
St. Louis is certainly a tough out in general (and hot with a 7-3 run in their last 10 games), but they’ve oddly been weak at home on the year (29-34). This could be a good spot to bet against them.
Braves Over Diamondbacks
I’m a fan of Robbie Ray, who headlines this matchup for Arizona’s defense. He can strike a ton of guys out, as seen by an awesome 13-K night in his last outing. That being said, he’s at home, where pitching goes to die.
Arizona’s ballpark is not good for pitchers at all, and Ray hasn’t been immune to it’s nasty ways. He’s just 4-5 at home on the year and has given up nine home runs and 38 earned runs in those starts.
That doesn’t kill Arizona’s hopes to win tonight, and considering Bovada has them at -177 favorites, they probably still deserve your consideration. However, the D’Backs are just 5-5 over their last 10 games and have struggled immensely in their home park in 2016 (an ugly 23-41).
The Braves are not a world beater by any means, as they’ve crumbled in their last 10 (2-8) and still don’t have the best offense around. However, they’re far better away from home (27-37) and may have enough juice here to be an interesting bet.
Orioles Over Nationals
This is where tonight’s slate truly gets interesting. Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nats (-225) at home and hypothetically should be fine, as he truly throws his best stuff in front of Washington’s home crowd.
Baltimore (+195) also traditionally is not very good on the road, and it’s highly believable that even their best bats will come up lame against an elite arm like Mad Max.
Then again, one thing Scherzer definitely struggles with is the long ball, and he also hasn’t exactly been in top form over his last two starts.
Baltimore comes in hot with three straight wins, while the Nats are stumbling a bit with four losses in a row (4-6 over last 10 outings).
If Baltimore can get hot and rock Scherzer early, this could be a terrific upset bet.
Angels Over Blue Jays
The biggest upset to chase tonight, without a doubt, is the Angels stealing a win in Toronto (-280). The odds are most certainly stacked against the Halos, as they face pitcher J.A. Happ, who has been unflappable.
Happ has been amazing on the year (17-3), but he’s specifically been tough lately and at home. He’s riding a nice five-game winning streak and has a gaudy 10-1 mark at his home stadium in 2016.
So, why consider the Angels?
Odds, baby, odds. There really is not much to love about the Halos here, but you don’t need to bet big on their +240 odds to see a nice payout if they somehow land the upset win.
It helps that the Angels did just beat Toronto in the second game of their current series and could use that momentum to mount a massive upset tonight. The fact that Jered Weaver is taking the mound for them doesn’t support them as an upset play, but with odds like this, it’s worth a shot.
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