2016 MLB All-Star Odds: Will Giancarlo Stanton Win the Home Run Derby?
The 2016 MLB All-Star game arrives on Tuesday, but the break is already alive and well on Monday, with the much-anticipated Home Run Derby ready to sound off.
Daily fantasy baseball and the 2016 MLB season are put on hold for the All-Stat festivities, which could kick off with a bang on Tuesday night, when eight of baseball’s heaviest hitters face off for the Home Run Derby crown.
2016 Home Run Derby Bracket
The Home Run Derby is once again in a bracket form for the second year in a row and shapes up like this:
- (1) Mark Trumbo vs. (8) Corey Seager)
- (2) Todd Frazier vs. (7) Carlos Gonzalez
- (3) Adam Duvall vs. (6) Wil Myers
- (4) Robinson Cano vs. (5) Giancarlo Stanton
Home Run Derby Scoring
Each masher gets four minutes a piece, with one 45-second timeout (they get two in round two) and the winner of each head to head showdown advances to the next round.
A little fun piece to the puzzle? The guys with the longer jacks benefit, as players can earn 30 extra seconds of bonus time if they can manage to knock two home runs of 440+ feet into the stands. Ties enter a 60-second home run dash.
It’s a very exciting HR Derby set-up, and with the stars on hand, it promises to be as thrilling of an event as ever.
2016 Home Run Derby Odds
Per Bovada, Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton is the odds on favorite to win this year’s Home Run Derby.
Stanton faces a tough challenge right out of the gates with a matchup with past derby winner Robinson Cano, though.
The rest of the bracket doesn’t have things getting any easier, either, with any of the eight contenders having a realistic shot at taking the crown.
Here’s the full odds for each masher, per Bovada:
- Giancarlo Stanton +300
- Mark Trumbo +375
- Todd Frazier +500
- Wil Myers +650
- Adam Duvall +700
- Carlos Gonzalez +800
- Robinson Cano +800
- Corey Seager +900
This field includes two past Home Run Derby winners, with Frazier taking first place last year and Cano winning back in 2011 when he was with the New York Yankees.
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) July 8, 2016
Frazier and Cano are with new teams and this is a new year, but both have won and still carry heavy bats. They wouldn’t be in this field if they weren’t viable threats, so they need to be considered.
Frazier winning would give us a second repeat champion in the past for years, as Yoenis Cespedes accomplished the feat during the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That might be tough to do, though, since Cespedes was the first repeat Home Run Derby champ since the great Ken Griffey Jr. made it happen during the 1998 and 1999 seasons.
Of the two, Cano is the one with far more interesting odds and could be the best bet when you look at ability and upside. His +800 odds make a $100 bet quite interesting, as he certainly has a chance to win and that bet could return a cool $800 fairly easily at Bovada.
In that same breath, we need to think long and hard about guys like Duvall, CarGo and Seager. These three are absolute mashers and have similar odds, while Seager is a rookie and could be a bit of a dark horse in this competition.
Who Wins the Home Run Derby?
Bovada says Stanton is going to win, but in what looks like a wide open event, how do we know who to actually bet on in this year’s Home Run Derby?
— Baseball Tonight (@BBTN) July 11, 2016
Stanton is a mild favorite just because he’s been absolutely mashing so far in July – 4 homers in just 29 plate appearances. That’s a staggering pace, but Stanton had been struggling for much of the year up til this month and that’s not a huge sample size.
Then again, Stanton is an all-or-nothing kind of guy, so focusing on just jacking bombs out of the park certainly favors his game.
He’s not the only heavy hitter here. The entire 8-man field is stacked and it’s truly open for anyone to step up and take the crown from Frazier.
Frazier and Cano are in the mix just because they’ve won before, while Frazier could maybe be seen as the better pick just because he won last year in this same bracket format. Repating as HR Derby champ hasn’t been very easy in the past, though, so we’re not sold on Frazier. Like Stanton, he’s an all-or-nothing hitter, too, so if he’s not on, he could come out and disappoint greatly.
Mark Trumbo feels like a very interesting pick, as he’s have a huge 2016 season for the Baltimore Orioles. Our favorite option, however, is none other than Colorado Rockies star dong-producer, Carlos Gonzalez.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 7, 2016
The man best known as CarGo is a total home run machine thanks to playing at the power-inducing Coors Field, but he also owns four of the longest mashes in the majors in 2016. Stanton has the top two and three overall, but Gonzalez has more and is just as good of a power hitter.
Stanton has an effortless swing and the odds are in his favor, but the gap is not wide and the field is strong. We’re rolling with a pick that both makes sense and also gives us more upside in terms of payout. It’s CarGo or bust for us at the 2016 MLB Home Run Derby.
Got someone else for Monday’s Home Run Derby? Tell us all about it in the comments below!
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