2016 NASCAR: AAA Drive For Autism 400 Odds and Pick
The 2016 NASCAR season rolls on this Sunday, May 1st, with the AAA Drive For Autism 400 hitting up the Dover International Speedway.
Jimmie Johnson enters as the top favorite per Bovada, coming in as a 10-time winner at the track. He won’t be alone in terms of competition, however, as a fully stacked lineup of elite drivers figure to help finalize a giant 40-car field at The Monster Mile.
The Monster Mile.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) May 11, 2016
Let’s take a look at the odds for Johnson and the other top favorites, as well as some sleepers and fun bets for this weekend’s big race:
Top Favorites and Odds
- Jimmie Johnson (+400)
- Kyle Busch (+500)
- Kevin Harvick (+550)
- Carl Edwards (+800)
- Martin Truex Jr. (+800)
- Matt Kenseth (+850)
- Joey Logano (+1000)
- Denny Hamlin (+1100)
- Brad Keselowski (+1200)
- Kurt Busch (+1200)
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1600)
One thing to consider here is that six drivers have already earned their spots for The Chase and the incentive for them to go hard may not be so great. Brad Keselowski, who remains one of our favorites and is in with two wins this season, suggested that some of the top drivers that have earned their spot may not have the necessary motivation to try to win.
That could take a couple of our favorites out of the equation, but we also still can’t discount them – especially someone like Johnson, who won last year and has truly dominated this event.
Of course, he’s just the odds on favorite and as we’ve learned across all sports, that often means nothing. All of the top contenders and even some sleepers deserve serious consideration.
Kyle Busch is probably the hottest driver entering this race, coming in with an insane nine top-10 runs and three wins. He’ll be a top challenger to Johnson and there’s little doubt to why Vegas gives him the second best odds to take down the checkered flag.
Harvick is right up there with both of these guys and carries the third best odds after leading most of the way in a win at Dover in 2015. He’ll be a good bet to stay up front for a good portion of this weekend’s race, as well.
You can run down the list and make a case for the other favorites, but few have the luring combination of talent, experience and playable odds like Earnhardt Jr. He’s finished inside the top-20 at Dover in 13 of 22 runs, in addition to five top-5 placements and one win. He hasn’t been amazing this year, but comes in searching for his first win, backed by a solid four top-five runs. With his odds, a $20 bet could net you a sweet $320 at Bovada this weekend.
- Chase Elliott (+2800)
- Kasey Kahne (+3300)
- Kyle Larson (+3300)
- Austin Dillon (+5000)
- Ryan Newman (+6600)
- Tony Stewart (+6600)
- Clint Bowyer (+7500)
There is a ton of sleeper potential here, and it starts with the rookie Chase Elliott. This will be his first Dover appearance ever, but he’s enjoying a great 2016 that’s gotten him 7 top-10 finishes and three landings inside the top-5. He could parlay his early success into his first win this weekend. His odds don’t return much for the risk involved, but he’s a reasonable bet to consider.
Kahne is always in play and he finished inside the top-10 in both races at this track in 2015, plus he’s just a good driver. Larson was third at this track last year and Newman has always ran well at Dover. All of these guys are in play, plus Dillon could finally find some success with his first NASCAR win during his best season to date – six top-10 finishes and three top-5 runs.
The sleeper to watch is going to be Stewart, though.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) May 12, 2016
His last win on any track came at Dover and he has demolished here throughout his career (11 top-five finishes). He has had a rough couple of years (no wins since 2013), but cracked the top-10 in one of three races in 2016. It’d only be fitting for him to finally rebound with a strong run at a track he knows so well.
- Greg Biffle (+10000)
- Ryan Blaney (+15000)
- Aric Almirola (+25000)
- A.J. Allmendinger (+25000)
- Danica Patrick (+50000)
Almirola might be the best bet beyond odds of +10000 to make, as he’s done well at this track, finishing 5th in both races here in 2015. He hasn’t been great in 2016, but if history is any indication, he might be a fun bet ($20 would return a ridiculous $5,000).
Patrick hasn’t finished better than 16th in her last 10 races and was just 28th in her first appearance at Dover this year, but she’s still chasing that elusive first win and you just never know. Taking a small dive here for $20 returns a ridiculous $10,000 so here’s to history!
If you want to take an even deeper dive, consider shelling out a few bucks for the likes of Cole Whitt, Chris Buescher, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Josh Wise, Landon Cassill, Matt DiBenedetto, Michael Annett and/or Michael McDowell. None of these drivers have a strong bet to win this weekend, but their crazy +1000000 odds could turn a playful $20 bet into a cool $20 grand if they somehow won.
Um, Jimmie Johnson. Why deviate from the obvious? If you want safe money, just go with the guy who has a ridiculous 77 career wins – 10 of which lead the way at this track.
— Team Lowe’s Racing (@LowesRacing) May 11, 2016
That’s more than any other driver at Dover ever and the guy hasn’t cooled down in 2016, nabbing two wins and five top-five runs.
He’s not the play for big money, but a moderate bet can see a nominal return and the odds are pretty good. We also like Martin Truex Jr. to rebound and of the favorites, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has the most interesting odds.
Johnson probably wins, but be sure to throw in a couple of those hail mary bets just in case something crazy happens. After all, as Keselowski pointed out, the lack of motivation for guys who have already won (like Johnson) could leak out onto the track this weekend. If that happens, you’ll want a hand in some of the outside action.
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