Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Buys at DraftKings For 3/9
Big NBA Wednesday returns in what could be literally the fifth straight day of insane daily fantasy basketball action. Two nights ago a score of 384 fantasy points was merely enough to place moderately over at DraftKings, while last night the same was the case with a nice score of 310.
This is the life and death world of the GPP scene, but on Monday even placing in 50/50 games was a tall order. It’s just been crazy and just about everyone has been going off, so the emphasis on picking the right studs and nailing the right value plays is greater than ever.
Luckily there is a lot of value to be had across the board. Let’s focus on the deeper value at and below $6k at DK tonight:
PG: Norris Cole – Pelicans ($5.4k), Deron Williams – Mavs ($5.2k), Mario Chalmers – Grizzlies ($5.2k), Patrick Beverley – Rockets ($4.8k), Jerryd Bayless – Bucks ($4.5k), Shelvin Mack – Hawks ($4.3k) and Toney Douglas – Pelicans ($3.3k)
Point guard is seriously loaded tonight, with some big time studs and some really solid intermediate value. A lot of guys have seen inflated prices, but there is still a ton of value and it certainly trickles down to our $6k and below range.
It starts with Cole, who is mildly questionable (back), but he played 40 minutes and produced over 40 fantasy points in his last game. In a date with the Hornets in what should be an up-tempo game, there’s not much to hate here. Just make sure he’s active.
D-Will can be sacky and he faces a Piston team that can play good defense at times, but he’s much too cheap for what he’s capable of doing. He may not crush his price tag, but he should at least meet value.
Super Mario should be at it again with Mike Conley on the shelf for at least one more game. He handles the rock a ton when he starts and put up a healthy 37 fantasy points the other day against the Cavs. His matchup with the Celtics is less appealing but he was able to drop 32 fantasy points on them last time and his role is huge, so he’s going to be pretty chalky.
Bev has a low ceiling and floor and is always a little risky, but thanks to Ty Lawson leaving, his run and value is very nice. He faces the Sixers and that’s always fun, so he should get around 28-30 fantasy points tonight, if not a lot more.
Bayless has a locked in role with MCW (knee/hip) shut down for the season, so we should expect about 28-33 minutes out of him on a nightly basis. The Bucks keep using Giannis Antetokounmpo as a point forward and that saps Jerryd’s upside a bit, but he still dropped in 33 fantasy points in his last game. He’s a strong value and he possesses some upside due to his scoring ability.
Mack is a total throw-in simply because he starts, is cheap and gets around 27-30 minutes. I don’t like the matchup on the road against the Warriors at all, but if you need someone around the $4.3k range to close out a GPP team, he’s not the worst try.
Douglas could be a mighty fun GPP dive if the aforementioned Cole sits tonight. Douglas sees about 15-20 minutes either way, but Cole sitting, combined with the loss of Eric Gordon (finger) could make Douglas an awesome value play. I wouldn’t use him if Cole is active, however.
SG: Rodney Hood – Jazz ($5.3k), Devin Booker – Suns ($5.3k), J.J. Redick – Clippers ($4.9k), J.R. Smith – Cavs ($4.7k), Arron Afflalo – Knicks ($4.6k), Wes Matthews – Mavs ($4.4k) and Vince Carter – Grizzlies ($3.7k)
Hood has returned to form after a minor head injury and looks like a good value. The Warriors give up some production to shooting guards, so he’s a decent option to close the night. I’m not enamored with him (or any Jazz players) but there is value to be had here.
I’d rather use Booker, who is the same price and carries way more upside. He’s on a torrid run with two 40+ fantasy point efforts in his last three games. He can be hit or miss but now is a good time to ride him. It’s probably James Harden or punt at SG tonight, anyways.
If you want to punt a little harder, considering Redick, J.R. or Afflalo. Redick can get hot at anytime, while both Afflalo and Smith have nice matchups against defenses that give up high outside shooting percentages. Smith takes on the Kings, who have one of the worst defenses in the league and specifically get destroyed by two guards.
Matthews is a tough call against the feisty Kentavious Caldwell-Pope tonight, but he’s really cheap and can get hot at anytime. You can’t ignore Vinsanity if he’s set up for a big role again tonight, as he put up 29 fantasy points last game and Memphis is dealing with a rash of injuries right now.
SF: Luol Deng – Heat ($6k), Tobias Harris – Pistons ($6k), Rudy Gay – Kings ($5.9k), Jae Crowder – Celtics ($5.7k), Jerami Grant – 76ers ($5.2k), Tony Allen – Grizzlies ($4.5k) and Lance Stephenson – Grizzlies ($4.4k)
Deng might be a bit expensive when you consider his downside and how many capable bodies now reside in South Beach. The run and upside are still there, though, as he can do a little bit of everything and is going to keep rebounding pretty well with a lot of his time coming at power forward. His matchup with the Bucks looks amazing on paper, as well.
Harris and Gay are similar prices and might be better plays, as both are pretty safe and might have a little more upside to their game. Harris is shakier, though, while Gay feels like the obvious value at the position. Unless you’re paying up for KD, I think saving with Rudy Gay is probably the way to go tonight at small forward.
You can keep diving lower, though, as Crowder is cheaper and is fairly safe, while Grant could continue to see crazy run if Nerlens Noel and/or Jahlil Okafor (update: Okafor is OUT) are out or limited.
Memphis is banged up supremely right now, which puts all of their spares in play. Tony Allen racks up defensive stats and if he’s playing 35+ minutes he’s a lock as a GPP option. The same goes for Lance, but Matt Barnes for sure needs to miss a second straight game for me to love either of these guys.
PF: Serge Ibaka – Thunder ($5.9k), Dirk Nowitzki – Mavs ($5.8k), David Lee – Mavs ($5.1k), JaMychael Green – Grizzlies ($4.5k), Richaun Holmes – 76ers ($3.8k) and Carl Landry – 76ers ($3.2k)
Paying up for power forward makes good sense tonight (Brow/Boogie), but if you want to drop down, Serge and Dirk make good sense as fairly safe value plays. Both can go full spare, though, so going cheaper with Lee and Green makes good sense.
I’m not trusting Lee as much against Andre Drummond, as he’ll probably get into foul trouble. His price keeps climbing, too, so I might need Nowitzki to sit out (potential rest) to use him. Green is still in play despite a price bump, as he was amazing (50 fantasy points) against the Cavs and does a little bit of everything. He could be in for another big game against a beatable Boston interior defense.
Keep an eye on the Sixers big men, as Noel/Okafor being out or limited could open the door to either Holmes or Landry returning solid value. Landry is the better try of the two, as he’s much cheaper and was solid last time out with 28 fantasy points.
C: Jared Sullinger – Celtics ($5.9k), Robin Lopez – Knicks ($5.6k), Al Jefferson – Hornets ($4.8k) and Tyson Chandler – Suns ($4.4k)
I don’t like the idea of going cheap at center tonight, but if you do it starts with Sully, who has 25+ fantasy points in each of his last 10 games and could have a good matchup against Memphis at home. He missed practice time with a skin infection, though, so be sure to stay on top of his status leading into tonight.
Lopez is hit or miss but he could get some revenge against the Suns (one of his former teams) tonight. He’ll be needed against Tyson Chandler and Alex Len, so he should get solid run, too.
Big Al remains a good price and is slowly seeing his minutes rise off the bench. He has a good matchup with a bad Pellies defense and this could be a fun spot to toss him into a GPP.
Chandler also could get some revenge against the Knicks tonight and he logged 33 minutes last time out. He’s pretty hit or miss, but he’s a good price and could easily get a double-double and return decent value in this spot.
That does it for Wednesday night’s top value buys at DraftKings. Hopefully some of our insight helps you win big tonight. Good luck!
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