Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football: Picking the Optimal Lineup
We got burned by some key would-be studs in week 11. Randall Cobb laid an egg with just 10 fantasy points, while DeAngelo Williams couldn’t do anything against the freaking Browns.
It’s weird, too, considering Cobb was at home against the Lions. Green Bay oddly decided not to show up, losing their third game in a row and to a Lions team they hadn’t lost a home game to in 24 years.
Nice work, Packers. Because that makes sense. If Cobb’s weak showing wasn’t bad enough (hey, he topped 10 points, at least), D-Will was a total fail thanks to a fumble and a real lack of effectiveness against the worst run defense in the league.
Sure, that works.
Blake Bortles wasn’t amazing, either, but he was fine enough and the rest of our week 10 optimal lineup was on fire. Martavis Bryant wrecked, DeMarco Murray got 17 points, the Steelers defense saced Johnny Manziel and forced some turnovers and both Jordan Reed and Allen Robinson scored.
The best part was the potential switch I alluded to in last week’s column. I first had Stefon Diggs but said if Matt Forte was out I’d probably roll with Jeremy Lanford. He was, I did and we placed in a big GPP.
The day could have been quite amazing if Williams and Cobb weren’t utter failures, but hey, winning is better than losing.
Hopefully you followed along in some fashion and also hit the green last week. If not, climb aboard the week 11 optimal lineup train and we’ll show you to some money:
QB: Tom Brady – Patriots ($8.5k)
I’m torn this week because I really like the value Derek Carr represents. However, short of dropping from The Gronk (and I don’t want to do that), switching to Carr really doesn’t open this team up enough to warrant doing so.
The nice thing is Brady is expensive (top priced QB of week 11) and a lot of people will balk at that and look elsewhere at quarterback. Brady’s projected ownership is still going to be rather high, but he’s as safe as any fantasy passer gets. I’m willing to take my chances, as he’s at home against Rex Ryan and he torched the Bills last time for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. It’s possible Buffalo gets the best of him this time, but considering Brady torched them on the road and this time he’s at home, it’s not overly likely.
RB: Adrian Peterson – Vikings ($6.8k)
Even as a Packers fan, I gotta have me some All Day this week. Fresh off of a ridiculous 200+ rushing yard day, Peterson has been the key cog in Minnesota’s offense and has them on a wild 5-game winning streak. This wee they draw the Packers, their main competition in the NFC North, for a huge divisional clash. I don’t know if the Vikes win for sure, but Peterson routinely clowns Green Bay and this is way too big of a game for him to come up small. Is he going to drop 200+ on the green and gold? I don’t know, but his price is a discount and he has insane upside. I can’t pass on him this week.
RB: Charcandrick West – Chiefs ($4.5k)
West is a potential RB1 every week filling in for the injured Jamaal Charles, and that was before he got one of the worst run defenses in all of the NFL (Chargers). San Diego cannot stop the run and is flat out reeling with five losses in a row. This game could still go either way, but West is without a doubt the value play of the week at running back – and that’s possibly the case across all positions. He’s versatile, explosive, cheap and has a dream matchup. Even if he stinks, you can’t be mad about using him with all of that logic.
WR: Danny Amendola – Patriots ($4k)
There have been whispers that the Pats might “manage” Amendola due to his injury history, but his 10 catches last week after Julian Edelman went down tell us all we need to know. The reality is he’s a demon out of the slot and Brady and co. need him in the worst way. Even if he is held back to some degree, he’s looking at at least 6+ catches and 50-60 yards. My guess is 10 fantasy points is his floor right now and for his price, that’s a bargain. Now just cross your fingers he finds the end-zone, too.
WR: Stevie Johnson – Chargers ($3.9k)
Johnson is another cheap wide receiver that has a big role and a nice matchup. He faces a Chiefs pass defense that has been better lately but on the year has gotten burned quite a bit. Johnson would be worth a try as a shifty slot option no matter what at this price, but with Keenan Allen done for the year and Malcom Floyd also out this week, he’s nearly a must-play. Johnson wasn’t amazing in his start two weeks ago, but he did get 13 fantasy points and that could be his floor moving forward.
WR: Sammy Watkins – Bills ($4.8k)
Watkins is a top shelf receiver talent so right away at this price we know we’re getting supreme value. He’s also been banged up all year and was previously sharing face time with Percy Harvin. That’s no longer the case, as he’s now much healthier and Harvin is on injured reserve. Watkins also faces a beatable Patriots pass defense that he dropped a solid 6-60-1 line on in week two this year. He might not completely crush, but he should be plenty fine for this cheap price.
TE: Rob Gronkowski – Patriots ($7.7k)
Gronkowski was a dud when I told you to use him two weeks ago, but he turned around last week and dominated the Giants. He even had a 76-yard touchdown. In week two Stephon Gilmore said the Bills had a plan to stifle the stud tight end. The Gronk proceeded to piece together a sick 7-113-1 line. Gilmore once again is saying the Bills know how to stop him, but in five home games no one is stopping Gronkowski (23 fantasy points per contest). I like the stack job of Gronk/Danny/Brady and it keeps me from taking an unnecessary gamble at a highly volatile position.
Flex: Jarvis Landry – Dolphins ($6.7k)
There is literally no one safer in fantasy football than Jarvis Landry. He’s a do it all talent who is constantly involved in Miami’s offense, no matter the situation. With at least 10+ fantasy points in every single game in 2015, he’s a no-brainer play for my Flex spot.
Def: Philadelphia Eagles ($3.1k)
There are plenty of defenses to consider this week, but I like the Eagles for several reasons. They’re at home in a huge game they need to win to keep pace for the top of the NFC East, and they get Jameis Winston. Winston has actually only thrown 5 picks since a horrific NFL debut, but Philly really gets after the quarterback and this is simply a defense that both forces turnovers and knows how to turn them into touchdowns. I don’t know if Winston completely caves on the road here, but that distinct possibility has me liking the Eagles.
Again, I’m very interested in a Derek Carr/Amari Cooper stack this week, but I’m pretty sure I like the Brady/Amendola/Gronk look a good amount more. It’s safer and more expensive, so it’s likely that trio together will be less owned. Most of all, this week’s optimal lineup is about value that simply cannot be passed up. Try it out entirely or in pieces and see if it can’t help you win some cash in daily fantasy football leagues in week 11!
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