Week 12 Daily Fantasy Football Value Picks at DraftKings
You probably fared pretty well in daily fantasy football leagues last week if you checked out our NFL DFS value picks, as several of our favorite plays crushed.
Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Frank Gore and Doug Baldwin were just some of our daily fantasy football value picks that panned out, and if you had shares of them, you weren’t disappointed.
We did miss the mark a few times, too, of course. Martellus Bennett was our biggest gaffe, as he caught just one pass for 14 yards, while Blake Bortles was a big miss (14 fantasy points) despite a favorable date with a bad Lions defense.
Misses like that aren’t so easy to avoid, but we always aim to provide more successful picks than bad picks. That doesn’t change going into week 12, as we’re provided with a very interesting 12-game main slate.
Exluding the Thursday games, let’s take a look at the top value picks to target in daily fantasy football contests at DraftKings in week 12:
- Cam Newton – Panthers ($6.8k)
- Derek Carr – Raiders ($6.1k)
- Carson Palmer – Cardinals ($5.3k)
Newton isn’t cheap, but for what this guy can do for you when he’s cooking, we all need to consider using him in week 12. Newton finally got back to his elite dual threat capabilities two games ago, when he put up 24 fantasy points.
It was disappointing to see Newton come up lame against a bad Saints defense last week, but he still carries monster upside and for his potential, is coming in at a discount. Oakland is just 21st in the league against fantasy quarterbacks, so this isn’t a terrible spot to target Newton and hope his 2015 form shines through.
That same game could feature and even better value in Carr, who has twice gone nuts in the last three weeks (22 and 39 fantasy points). Carr can go off in any matchup, but Carolina is especially tantalizing as their defense ranks just 25th against quarterbacks.
Perhaps we should go back to the well with Carson Palmer, too, as he’s almost the minimum at DK when he takes on a Falcons defense that ranks dead last against quarterbacks this year.
Atlanta is the better team and this game is on the road, but Palmer has loads of weapons and Arizona is in a must-win situation. He could implode, but he’s topped 20+ fantasy points twice in the last three weeks and the risk is minimal for the price.
- Melvin Gordon – Chargers ($7k)
- Lamar Miller – Texans ($5.8k)
- Todd Gurley – Rams ($5.7k)
- Thomas Rawls – Seahawks ($5.7k)
The value is far more appealing at running back this week, and it starts with Gordon. He’s $7k, which obviously isn’t cheap, but he has been a monster all year and is still just the fifth priciest rusher on this slate.
That’s not a bad price to pay for a guy who can easily top 30 fantasy points and is a borderline lock for around 15. He gets a nice matchup with the Texans, too, who rank just 26th against running backs in 2016.
There is even better value to be had in this same game, though, as the explosive Lamar Miller is under $6k and possesses enormous upside.
Miller is banged up and questionable for week 12, but he’s coming off a nice 22-point fantasy outing and draws a date with a San Diego run defense that ranks just 27th against the position.
Gurley and Rawls are also very cheap this week and look like strong values with even stronger matchups. Rawls returned to DFS relevance last wek (11 fantasy points) and could be even better this week, as he gets a Buccaneers run defense allowing the 24th most fantasy points to running backs.
Gurley is obviously the better talent with more upside, though, so he could be the preferred play against a terrible Saints defense. Gurley chipped in 13 fantasy points last week and draws the Saints, who rank just 29th against running backs in 2016.
- Brandin Cooks – Saints ($6.8k)
- DeAndre Hopkins – Texans ($6.3k)
- Brandon Marshall – Jets ($6.1k)
- Jarvis Landry – Dolphins ($5.9k)
- Tyler Boyd – Bengals ($4k)
Wide receiver could be a fun spot to seek value this week, as well, as Cooks comes in at a discount. Cooks has major big play upside and he’s back at home this week, where he averages over 21 fantasy points per contest.
The Rams aren’t the greatest matchup, but Cooks and the Saints tend to wreck at home. For a guy who is usually well over $7k, Cooks looks like a fantastic value play at wide receiver.
On sheer talent and price alone, though, Nuk, Marshall and Landry look like big names that will be very tough to bypass. They’re all having down years, but these guys can pour in huge performances any any time and all have either decent to favorable matchups this week.
Hopkins may be the best overall play, as he’s been solid for most of 2016 and gets a Chargers secondary that ranks just 25th against wide receivers over the last four weeks.
One other guy to consider who is a major dive is rookie receiver Tyler Boyd. A.J. Green went down (hamstring) in week 11, which at least for the moment opens the door for Boyd to have a big role.
A date in Baltimore with the Ravens probably isn’t something to lust after, but Boyd will see a snap increase and the Ravens do rank just 30th against receivers on the year. You could make worse daily fantasy football picks in week 12.
- Greg Olsen – Panthers ($5.8k)
- Travis Kelce – Chiefs ($4k)
Tight end is not a place to find value this week, which is why we’re actually listing the most expensive option – Olsen – as one of our two favorite value picks.
The reality is, he still is a tremendous value, as Olsen is generally a very reliable DFS performer and after two shaky weeks in a row, he’s probably due for a big outing. He gets the Raiders this week, too, and they rank just 25th against tight ends on the year.
There are some dangerous dives to be made at tight end, but this may not be the week to do that. Olsen feels like the play, or perhaps Kelce, who is a good price ($4k) and offers some nice upside.
Kelce doesn’t have an amazing matchup, but Denver did get burned by Hunter Henry earlier in the year.
For the most part, we hate the value at tight end. Olsen is a stud at a good price and looks like the easy play in week 12.
- Tennessee Titans ($2.8k)
- New Orleans Saints ($2.8k)
There isn’t a ton of safe value at team defense, either. That being said, the Titans look like the easy call with a date against Matt Barkley very likely for week 12.
Barkley is inexperienced and by all accounts flat out terrible, which makes a usually so-so Tennessee defense a borderline must-play option.
If you don’t love them, consider the Saints, who are at home and get Jared Goff and the Rams. New Orleans isn’t exactly safe defensively, but anytime you can face a raw rookie, you need to consider that plunge.
Overall, week 12 does not have crazy value for daily fantasy football leagues across the board. There are some interesting plunges worth taking at running back and wide receiver, however, while cheap defense might also make sense.
At tight end, however, we’d spend for Olsen and also pay up at quarterback and also try to get David Johnson. For more of our NFL DFS advice be on the lookout for our week 12 daily fantasy football optimal lineup. Regardless of what you do this week, good luck in your NFL DFS leagues!
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