Week 13 Daily Fantasy Football: Picking the Optimal Lineup
We’re getting closer with our weekly optimal lineup in daily fantasy football. Week 12 was really ruined by, oddly enough, Julio Jones, a would-be safe Chiefs defense and an injury to Jimmy Graham.
Dontrelle Inman was a big hit, Odell Beckham Jr. and Russell Wilson went nuts and everyone we used outside of the Chiefs had at least 10 fantasy points.
The end result was placing in DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker game, but we could have been a lot higher had Julio actually been elite and KC’s defense not suddenly gone spare against a pedestrian Buffalo offense at home.
We won’t focus on the bad, though, as it overall was a fantastic team and if you used it (or a combination) you probably made out OK. Let’s see if we can’t do even better as we try to mix some studs with some quality value options going into week 13:
QB: Tom Brady – Patriots ($8k)
There’s no denying Brady’s two biggest deterrent’s: he’s down a good amount of weapons and he’s rather pricey. His upside fits the payment, though, and he should still have Danny Amendola back this week. He’s also at home against a really bad Eagles defense. Like, fourth worst against quarterbacks on the year, bad. There could be a mild decline with Rob Gronkowski on the shelf this week, but I fully expect Brady to still get the job done. Besides, all of the minor concerns could help make him a solid contrarian play.
RB: C.J. Anderson – Broncos ($3.5k)
Anderson blew up for 34 fantasy points last week and now appears to be the main guy in Denver’s rushing attack thanks to 14+ touches the past two weeks. Even if he’s still going to lose work to Ronnie Hillman, it doesn’t really matter thanks to this sick price. I don’t know if he drops 30 again this week, but he faces an awful Chargers run defense and Brock Osweiler has really opened things up for the Broncos’ rushing attack. Anderson will be rightfully highly owned, but there is too much value not to take the dive.
RB: David Johnson – Cardinals ($3.4k)
It’s much the same with Johnson, who is arguably even more talented than C.J. Anderson and could be looking at “25 touches” with both Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington ruled out for week 13. Arizona loves this kid and prior to this week he was a super efficient touchdown machine. He has feature back ability and is rather explosive, while this week’s matchup against a shaky Rams run defense certainly doesn’t strike fear into the heart. Both Johnson and Anderson do carry a little risk, but at their insanely low price tags it just doesn’t pay to look elsewhere at running back this week.
WR: A.J. Green – Bengals ($7.6k)
Tyler Eifert (stinger) is almost certainly out this week which is one more reason to love Green’s upside. You don’t need to search high and low for reasons to want to play him anyways, especially since he gets a very good matchup against a Browns pass defense that has ranks fourth worst against wide receivers over the past four weeks. Green wasn’t really needed last time against the Browns (Eifert scored three touchdowns), but he’ll see more work this time around.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins – Texans ($8.8k)
Nuk is a little banged up and was a total dud last week, two big reasons why I think people will be a little down from him in week 13. No one likes paying up for a stud that is going to fail them, but that’s not something someone as good as Hopkins will do very often. You could also consider Odell Beckhm Jr. here, but I like Nuk because he could be lower owned. He’s even a bit of a value, as his prices drops about $300 from last week.
WR: Julio Jones – Falcons ($9k)
I’m stacking elite wide receivers this week and I have half the mind to drop down from Tom Brady so I can go get ODB, too. For now I like Green enough to pair him with Nuk and Julio, who is another flat out stud who is coming off of a surprisingly quiet week. This week should be anything but, however, as Jones faces a shaky Buccaneers pass defense that he lit up for a sick 12-162-1 line just a few weeks ago. In a must-win game for the Falcons, I wouldn’t be overly shocked to see a similar (or even better) line.
TE: Scott Chandler – Patriots ($2.5k)
Rob Gronkowski played last week and thanks to other injuries, Chandler still produced with a nice 5-58-1 line. Now that Gronk joins Julian Edelman on the sidelines, you have to think Chandler has a steady role in his place. Chandler isn’t the same talent and could easily go spare, but it’s a little unlikely given how much he’ll be needed. The matchup versus the Eagles is not favorable from a positional perspective, but he’s at home and this price is absurd when you consider his potential role. I’m using Brady in this lineup, too, so it makes sense to get 1-2 of his weapons.
FLEX: Danny Amendola – Patriots ($4.7k)
Why not double down with Brady here? Gronkowski and Edelman are out, which is going to open the door to a ton of targets and potentially elite production out of Chandler and Amendola. You need to make sure Danny is playing (knee) but the guy hauled in 17 receptions in his two games before going down with a knee sprain. He should be ready to rock against an Eagles pass defense that ranks dead last against the wide receiver position on the season.
DEF: Houston Texans ($2.5k)
I am loving the value this week, as it just screams to me in such an obvious way. It’s one of those weeks where if my value picks don’t work out, it’s a big bowl of whatever. I’m going to ride and die with these picks and hopefully my studs can finally come through for a change. Houston is another one of those value picks, as I keep getting burned by expensive defenses and frankly, I’m getting tired of it. The Texans could go all Texans on me and sack me as well, but they’re facing a pretty one-dimensional Bills offense in what is a huge game for their division title aspirations. Houston is ranking first against the quarterback position over the past four weeks and in their last four games haven’t dipped below 8 fantasy points even once. Hopefully they don’t go all Kansas City on me and that trend continues.
This week really hinges on the value picks, as I’d be incredibly surprised (and disappointed) if the likes of Brady, Julio, Green and Nuk went spare. They could, but I really like the roles and matchups this week. The issue will be whether or not Amendola, Chandler, Houston, Anderson and Johnson can crush their price tags. I think they can, and if I’m right this week’s optimal lineup could help us win our biggest payout yet.
Regardless of what you do in daily fantasy football in week 13, hopefully my look at some of these guys shed some light on some of your own concerns. As always, good luck in DFS this week!
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