Week 4 Daily Fantasy Football Value Buys at DraftKings
Week three was rather hit or miss in daily fantasy football, as we had some very odd games produce a ton of daily fantasy numbers, and others that were expected to do well really struggle.
The two most obvious where the Buccaneers/Rams and Chargers/Colts. We saw Indy and San Diego both struggled to put up points, while the Rams and Bucs oddly found it incredibly easy in what many pegged to be a defensive battle.
A lot of craziness went on in week three, with Trevor Siemian and Emmanuel Sanders shredding Cincinnati, the Steelers putting up just three points in a blowout loss and Terrelle Pryor going absolutely nuts against Miami.
More happened, but hopefully you made it out of the insanity with some cash. That very well may have been the case if you bought into some of our week three NFL DFS value plays, as Dak Prescott, Melvin Gordon, Frank Gore, Charles Sims, Steve Smith, Eric Ebron and Jimmy Graham were all solid to amazing.
There were some real stinkers, too (we’re looking at you, Marcus Mariota), but we still had a pretty strong week without daily fantasy football value players. We set out to do the same – but even better – in week four:
- Philip Rivers – Chargers ($6.9k)
- Kirk Cousins – Redskins ($6.5k)
- Carson Palmer – Cardinals ($6.3k)
- Joe Flacco – Ravens ($5.9k)
- Dak Prescott – Cowboys ($5.7k)
- Trevor Siemian – Broncos ($5.4k)
Quarterback may be a great spot to find value in week four, as Philip Rivers heads the list under $7k. He’ll be at home against a bad Saints defense, and after not meeting expectations last week, a lot of DFS gamers may be off of him. That could make him a value and contrarian, which is often a lethal combo.
Cousins is another guy to consider, as he’s been heating up the past two weeks and may be in for a second straight big game when he takes on a bad Browns defense this week. Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco and Carson Wentz have all had success against this defense, so it makes sense to roll with Cousins here.
You could also roll the dice on Palmer bouncing back from a horrific week three performance. Palmer was picked off thrice and could do nothing right last week, but in week four he’ll get a familiar Rams team at home. Los Angeles can play defense, but this feels like a good spot for Palmer to get things together a bit.
Flacco, Prescott and Siemian all deserve nods, as well. Prescott has just been decent all year and he’s coming off a pretty nice week three performance. His yardage and dual threat ability already make him appealing, but it also feels like a big day through the air is coming. That could very well be this week against a trash Niners defense.
Flacco gets a bad Raiders defense and may also be due for a blow up, while we can’t ignore Siemian, who just destroyed the Bengal to the tune of 300+ yards and four passing scores. He might not do that in successive weeks, but it will be difficult to ignore his value when he takes on an inconsistent Buccaneers defense.
- Mark Ingram – Saints ($5.9k)
- Devonta Freeman – Falcons ($5.5k)
- LeGarrette Blount – Patriots ($5k)
- Jordan Howard – Bears ($3.7k)
Ingram has not been great to start 2016, but he can’t be ignored with a tasty week four matchup at this price. He draws the Bolts, who just lost inside linebacker Manti Te’o and really haven’t been amazing defensively overall. Ingram is due for a big game and this could be the one.
Freeman’s story is quite similar, as he’s sharing the rock with Tevin Coleman but ran well in week two and is due a big performance. It could come in week four, where he’s criminally underpriced against the Panthers.
Blount continues to be the hot hand in New England and while his price spikes a bit, we can’t look away from his killer role at home against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense looked nastier last week and Blount has little help from his passing game right now, but the value, talent and role may be too good to fade.
Howard might be the best overall running back value this week, depending on what happens with normal starter, Jeremy Langford. Langford hurt his ankle on Monday night and on a short week, suddenly may be limited or even held out. Howard stepped up with Langford hobbled, totaling 92 yards on 13 touches. He showed good patience and a nice burst, so he will definitely be worth a look if he has a big role ahead of week four.
- Mike Wallace – Ravens ($5.2k)
- Terrelle Pryor – Browns ($4.3k)
- John Brown – Cardinals ($4.3k)
- Adam Humphries – Buccaneers ($3k)
In an effort to not repeat our favorite values every single week, we’re just pointing out a few wide receivers that are cheap and probably deserve a good, hard look.
Wallace has three times this year already and has seen six targets in every single game. Against a bad Raiders secondary, that’s going to feel like a massive number.
Pryor was a machine last week, taking on roles as a receiver, runner and passer. His matchup with Josh Norman isn’t ideal, but if he’s this active in the offense, that shouldn’t matter.
Brown may finally be back, as he saw a whopping 11 targets last week and turned them into 70 yards on six catches. A big game is just around the corner and he remains super cheap.
We’re not ridiculously high on Humphries despite a stellar 9 catches and 100 yards, but we obviously need to pay attention to this dude at the bare minimum for receivers. Going up against a tough Broncos defense this week could have him needed out of the slot again.
- Jimmy Graham – Seahawks ($4k)
- Dennis Pitta – Ravens ($3.9k)
- Zach Miller – Bears ($2.7k)
- Hunter Henry – Chargers ($2.7k)
Most of the top tight ends are seeing their prices rise, which means we have to dip down even further than usual at the position, now three weeks into the year. Graham still is cheap and is coming off a massive week three performance. I’m not sure he crushes like that again this week, but it’s going to be hard to ignore his value and upside.
Pitta may be a good pivot here, as he’s slightly cheaper and probably has a safer week to week role. After a down week three, I wouldn’t be surprised if he tore it up against Oakland in week four.
Miller and Henry are dirt cheap and after showing their skills last week, both should be on your NFL DFS radar. Miller scored twice and may have a massive role as long as Brian Hoyer is under center, while the athletic Henry showed plenty of ability while filling in for an injured Antonio Gates. Miller is the preferred play of the two, but if Gates sits again, Henry will be in the mix with a plus matchup at home against the Saints.
- Dallas Cowboys ($2.9k)
- Buffalo Bills ($2.6k)
- Baltimore Ravens ($2.4k)
Dallas gets the Niners this week and have surprisingly been solid through three weeks, while the Bills stepped up big time last week and may be “back”. A date with the Patriots could go either way, but if Jacoby Brissett gets a second straight start we’d have to give the edge to Buffalo’s defense.
The Ravens are the play here, even though they’re taking on a good Oakland offense. The Raiders are still on the road and weren’t great a week ago. Baltimore is at home and has now registered 9 sacks and 5 picks over their first three games. I smell a defensive touchdown coming.
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