Week 4 NFL Picks: NFL Odds and Predictions
After two shaky week of NFL picks to start the season, we finally scored a stellar showing in week three, where we went a strong 12-4 straight up. That included getting burned by the Redskins, who we should never trust and having to pick between the Browns and Raiders, which is pretty much impossible.
Against the spread was a challenge, as we felt the 49ers would give more of a fight, while the Texans actually covered what we thought to be a gaudy -6.5 spread. We were still in the green at 9-7 against the spread and waltz into the fourth week of the year, 28-20 straight up and 22-26 against the spread).
We all have a better understanding of who we’re dealing with in these NFL teams, or so we think. Let’s put it to good use as we pick the week four matchups:
Ravens (Favorite: Ravens, -3) @ Steelers
Baltimore has lost three really tight games in a row. A Super Bowl contender prior to the regular season, this is still a team that could actually rise up out of their ugly 0-3 hole. It’s tough to start that process on the road against a divisional foe, but no Big Ben gives the Ravens the edge they need.
Pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 23
Jets (-1.5) @ Dolphins
This is a tough game to call, as Miami has tons of talent on both sides of the ball but this isn’t even a home game (its in London) and they’ve truly looked awful two out of three games to start the year. New York’s nasty defense has the edge with home field advantage not a real thing for either squad this week.
Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 20
Jaguars @ Colts (-9.5)
The Colts obliterate the Jaguars with ease on the regular and after seeing the Jags get pasted last week by the Pats, we know their strides aren’t as big as we had hoped. Indy’s also at home and trying to dig themselves out of a 0-2 start. They’ll get back to .500 with a huge win.
Pick: Colts 34, Jaguars 16
Texans @ Falcons (-6.5)
Houston kept their season alive with a big home win last week and now they’ll head to the Georgia Dome to try to give the Falcons their first loss of the season. I don’t think they do it, but Atlanta has two wins they maybe shouldn’t and definitely still has some holes in their game. I like the Texans to threaten and ultimately cover in this one.
Pick: Falcons 27, Texans 24
Panthers (-3) @ Buccaneers
The Panthers have been a pretty quiet 3-0 team and now they have a chance to go to 4-0 against a division rival. The Bucs have been more competitive the past two weeks but something tells me they’re about to fall apart at home for the second time this year.
Pick: Panthers 31, Bucs 13
Giants @ Bills (-5.5)
Eli Manning has been fairly underwhelming so far this year and it really feels like the only reason the G-Men are in games is because of Odell Beckham Jr. I just can’t see them marching into Buffalo and doing enough against a Rex Ryan defense to get the win.
Pick: Bills 30, Giants 20
Raiders (-3) @ Bears
If Jay Cutler plays I’m giving the Bears the shot. Chicago is at home and it’s unfair to say they’re so bad when they simply haven’t been healthy all year. If they’re healthy, they could win a shootout. If Cutler sits, however, I’ll take Derek Carr and the Raiders, who actually look pretty good. In other words, I’ll take the Raiders straight up for now and I’ll take Chicago to beat the spread.
Pick: Raiders 31, Bears 30
Eagles (-3) @ Redskins
Kirk Cousins has proven two times in the first three weeks that he’s about as bad as we ever thought. Even at home, I just don’t trust him. The Eagles seemed dead after the first two weeks but showed serious life last week. I’m not a firm believer in them all of a sudden, but I’m warming back up to them.
Pick: Eagles 27, Redskins 17
Chiefs @ Bengals (-4)
Kansas City is going to be awfully desperate heading into Cincy this week, but they’ve under-performed on both sides of the ball and ever since week one just haven’t looked like the playoff contender we thought they’d be. I think they keep it close and beat the spread, but I still like the Bengals at home, straight up.
Pick: Bengals 30, Chiefs 27
Browns @ Chargers (-7.5)
If Johnny Manziel is the starter I think Cleveland wins last week and would have a shot in week four. With Josh McCown, I don’t. I think they can narrowly beat the spread, but they won’t win. San Diego is better than they’ve been playing and they’re at home.
Pick: Chargers 27, Browns 20
Packers (-8.5) @ 49ers
San Francisco’s best game by far came at home in week one, so there’s always a chance they show up to play in a huge rivalry game with the Packers. But the reality is the Packers are one of the best teams in the league right now and SF no longer is. Aaron Rodgers and co. should move to 4-0.
Pick: Packers 34, 49ers 23
Vikings @ Broncos (-6.5)
Adrian Peterson has mashed his way to 250+ rushing yards in two wins over the past two weeks, but this week he’s on the road against a very good Broncos defense. That isn’t likely to bode well, especially since Teddy Bridgewater is doubtful to give him much help. I like Peyton Manning and co. to stay undefeated.
Pick: Broncos 24, Vikings 16
Rams @ Cardinals (-7)
The Rams have the makings of a good team, but winning in the desert is tough and Carson Palmer and the Cards have looked amazing. Divisional matchups can go either way, though, so for the second week in a row I like the underdog to beat the spread against AZ.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Rams 23
Cowboys @ Saints (-4)
If Dallas leans on their ground game and plays sound defense they’ll get a couple wins while Tony Romo is out. If not, they lose like they did last week. This week could be worse, as they’re on the road against an extremely desperate Saints team. If Drew Brees starts (shoulder), Dallas is looking at a second straight loss.
Pick: Saints 24, Cowboys 17
Lions @ Seahawks (-10)
The Detroit Lions are in a bad way, as they draw their fourth tough matchup in a row to get 2015 going. On the road against the Seahawks is not the ideal setting for your first win of the year, and it’s unlikely this one is even close.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Lions 13
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