Week 5 Daily Fantasy Football Value Buys at DraftKings
Week four of daily fantasy football could be as easily put as this: if you used DeAndre Hopkins, you may not have won anything. And if you didn’t use some type of combination of Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, you certainly weren’t winning big.
This is perfect evidence of superstar talents coming through for us, while Nuk is that scary example of a star failing badly.
The trick each week in daily fantasy football, naturally, is deciding which stars to fade and which to trust in. That’ll be the case again in week five, and part of making that tough call is also figuring out which value plays make enough sense to include in your final lineup.
Let’s take a look at the salaries over at DraftKings this week and see which cheaper options could be in play for your NFL DFS roster:
- Philip Rivers – Chargers ($6.9k)
- Derek Carr – Raiders ($6.8k)
- Carson Wentz – Eagles ($6.4k)
- Eli Manning – Giants ($6k)
- Brian Hoyer – Bears ($5.5k)
- Paxton Lynch – Broncos ($5.2k)
Rivers was a solid DFS play last week and he’ll enter as one again in week five, with a solid matchup against a beatable Oakland secondary. The Raiders have given up over 27 points in three of their first four games and have specifically struggled against good passing games. Rivers is still a good price and is plenty capable of putting up 300+ yards and 2-3 scores.
Carr is right there with Rivers, as he also has a good matchup in the same game and is coming off a huge 4-touchdown week four performance. Better yet, Carr gets to play at home, where he and the Raiders tend to be at their best.
Wentz is the first truly cheap value play, as he’s not even $6.5k despite playing very solid football to start his first NFL season. He could easily be headed for his first bad pro outing, but he’s also yet to truly explode on the DFS NFL scene. A tasty matchup with a bad Lions pass defense could allow that to happen in week five.
I’m not sure what DK is thinking listing Eli Manning at such a low price, but the last time I checked, Green Bay’s pass defense hasn’t been particularly good. The Packers allowed Blake Bortles to drop 300+ yards on them in week one, couldn’t stop Sam Bradford in week two and gave up huge days to Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones Jr. the last time we saw them. It’s not easy to win at Lambeau, but it’s pretty hard to buy the Giants not putting up some passing numbers in this game.
Hoyer is not a good quarterback by any means, but the Chicago offense has looked better with him under center than it did with a healthy Jay Cutler. It’s also equated to solid DFS numbers, as Hoyer has notched 22+ fantasy points in each of his last two starts. With a tantalizing date with a bad Colts defense in week five, he’s very much in play.
We also need to consider Broncos rookie passer Paxton Lynch, who looked solid in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian (shoulder) last week.
.@PaxtonLynch on the run throws for his FIRST career NFL TD!!
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) October 2, 2016
With Siemian likely out a couple of weeks and Lynch almost the minimum, he should be a popular play in week five. Taking on a torchable Falcons pass defense at home will only help matters.
- Eddie Lacy – Packers ($5.9k)
- Frank Gore – Colts ($5.7k)
- LeGarrette Blount – Patriots ($5.6k)
- Jordan Howard – Bears ($5.2k)
- Terrance West – Ravens ($4.8k)
- Jeremy Hill – Bengals ($4.2k)
- Latavius Murray – Raiders ($4.2k)
- Wendell Smallwood – Eagles ($3.4k)
There is actually some really nice value up in the $6k range at running back this week, plus with no amazing bargains down low, there just may not be a need to dive at the position.
That being said, lacy, Gore and Blount are staples of strong offenses. They are well priced, are threats to score and have good roles. Blount could see his role dry up a tad with Tom Brady returning, but all three of these guys should still see solid work and have a chance to punch in a score.
Howard was an awesome value play last week, but his priced has spiked pretty quickly and he’s slowly starting to lose his value.
John Fox on Jordan Howard: "We'll ride him pretty good going forward." https://t.co/zci3iqWkAc
— FantasyLabs NFL (@FantasyLabsNFL) October 3, 2016
He’s still a strong value (and probably chalk) play in week five, of course, as Jeremy Langford remains out and Indy (the defense he’s facing) has been horrendous against the running back position.
West and Hill just have nice roles and are under $5k. Of the two Hill feels a little more reliable, but he offers no PPR value and pretty much needs to score to work out. West dropped 100+ rushing yards last week and may need big rushing days to pay off in Baltimore’s offense. That’s no lock, but this week he has a beatable matchup with the Redskins and again, he’s a great price.
Murray has seen his role dip considerably, but with that his price has also dropped. He’s still worth a gamble in the hopes he busts a big play or two, and/or scores.
Smallwood is the top value play, possibly of the entire week. He took on a bigger role last game with Ryan Mathews hurt, and it resulted in 17 carries and a score. There’s no telling where he goes from here, but at $3.4k it’s probably worth it to take a flier on him in a few GPPs.
- Will Fuller – Texans ($5.8k)
- Sterling Shepard – Giants ($5.5k)
- Mike Wallace – Ravens ($5.1k)
- Quincy Enunwa – Jets ($4.6k)
- Eddie Royal – Bears ($4.2k)
- Robert Woods – Bills ($3.9k)
- Brice Butler – Cowboys ($3.5k)
Wide receiver is another position rapidly losing value, as a lot of the sleepers have found themselves producing at a high level or at least locking down reliable roles. Fuller, Shepard and Wallace are still all under-priced. Shepard hasn’t had a bad game yet and Fuller has been pretty awesome in three of four games. Those two rookies are big parts of their offenses and that shouldn’t change moving forward.
Wallace is even cheaper than those guys, yet he holds just as much upside deep down the field. He and Joe Flacco haven’t been connecting the past two weeks, but the odds are growing stronger another big game is just around the corner. A week five date with the Redskins could ensure that.
Eric Decker is badly banged up and might not even play again in 2016, which firmly puts Enunwa in a great spot.
Jets can overcome Eric Decker injury if Quincy Enunwa pulls a Pippen https://t.co/w7nr3u53Fk
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) September 30, 2016
He is still a little tough to trust, but he’s topped 10+ fantasy points safely now in three of four 2016 outings. As long as Decker is out and he’s this cheap, he’ll be worth a try.
Royal, Woods and Butler are all going to be hit or miss sometimes, but they all have solid roles. All three of these guys topped 15 fantasy points this past week and could see their roles grow from here. Butler is a speedy receiver with loads of upside as long as Dez Bryant is out, Woods should continue to see targets with Sammy Watkins out for the year and Royal’s slot role should only be safer with Kevin White banged up.
- Tyler Eifert – Bengals ($4.2k)
- Hunter Henry – Chargers ($3.3k)
- Gary Barnidge – Browns ($3.2k)
The value is getting harder and harder to find at tight end, as guys are on bye this week, hurt or just becoming too pricey. Eifert could be finally making his return from an ankle injury, though, so if he’s active in week five his elite TD upside makes him a must try.
On a related note, Tyler Eifert expected back next week. #EifertEffect
— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) September 30, 2016
Henry has been rock solid in two spot starts for the injured Antonio Gates, yet his price really hasn’t climbed that much. He even scored last week and provided Gates remains out, should continue to find success as one of San Diego’s top passing weapons.
Barnidge hasn’t scored yet in 2016 and is dealing with his third quarterback on the year, but we’ve at least seen his role increase every week and he could be nearing a big outing. With the Browns sure to be playing from behind all day against the Pats this week, he could be in for his best day yet.
- Rams ($3.2k)
- Eagles ($2.9k)
- Bengals ($2.8k)
- Raiders ($2.4k)
Getting a strong defense is very important, as it can totally swing things in a big GPP tourney. Last week a lot of people got burned by some good defenses, so it’s often best to either find a safe value unit you feel you can trust, or just pay up at the position.
The Rams are somewhere in the middle of that argument and they’ve been amazing lately, with 10+ fantasy points in each of their last three games. The Buffalo team they’re facing is red hot with two straight wins, though, so you’ll have to pick a side there (Bills are also $3.1k).
I might prefer to drop down for the Eagles or Bengals, both of which are fairly cheap for how solid they’ve been in 2016. Philly is a mighty surprise with three straight 10+ fantasy outings to start the year, but it’s clear by now it’s not an accident. With them facing a Lions offense that has been very erratic so far, they feel like a strong play, per usual. The same goes for Cincy, who haven’t registered fewer than 5 fantasy points yet in 2016 and get a Dallas offense with two rookies playing huge roles.
Oakland could be worth a deep dive if you really need to save, of course. The Raiders have started to flex their defensive muscle in recent weeks, notching 4 and 11 fantasy points. With the Chargers crumbling right on schedule, this could be a fun week to fire up the Raiders.
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