Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football: Matchups to Avoid and Exploit
Week five was not so friendly in daily fantasy football, especially if you aimed high for GPP tourneys. For one, the Eagles really burned us by waiting to show up in Detroit in the second half. Zach Ertz somehow sow three balls come his way all night, Jordan Matthews was a total spare and Philly’s amazing defense finally laid an egg.
We also got harshly betrayed by the Giants, who couldn’t at all take advantage of a shaky Green Bay secondary. They’re a total mess and may be best off left avoided until they get hot again.
That leads us to our week six matchups breakdown, as we again try to ponder which NFL DFS options we should be targeting and avoiding.
Last week was a mixed bag, as we voted against the Lions, and of course their passing game was ablaze somehow. We did nail avoid calls in Julio Jones and Matt Jones, however, while targets like Jordan Howard and Kelvin Benjamin worked out just fine.
Regardless, it’s on to week six:
Matchups to Avoid
Philip Rivers vs. Broncos Secondary
It’d be too easy to tell you to refrain from Matt Ryan @ Seattle this week, so we’ll take a few steps back and say no to Rivers against the Broncos. San Diego has been pretty competitive, but the wheels are bound to fall off after a 1-4 start and so many injuries weighing that team down.
The harsh reality is the Bolts are on a short week and get a rival that will want to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the year. Denver ranks 5th against quarterbacks on the year and promises to keep Rivers from putting up elite numbers in week six.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Packers Run D
It sounds crazy to fade a guy like Zeke when he’s knee deep in an insanely hot run, I know. He’s on a ridiculous tear and it’s quite possible it doesn’t end anytime soon:
Ezekiel Elliott has been showing out this season pic.twitter.com/4MOxlrPJ8r
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 9, 2016
And we’re not even fully saying “don’t play this guy”. More than anything, we’re pointing out that Green Bay has been the top defense against running backs throughout 2016 and it hasn’t been close.
Elliott is on a serious tear, but two of his big games were at home and two came against weak 49ers and Bears defenses. This week six battle will be on the road and Green Bay will be 100% looking to stop Zeke ahead of anything else Dallas tries to throw at them. Fading him could be dangerous, but it’s fair to brace for less than stellar results.
Mark Ingram vs. Panthers Run D
Ingram is another back I’m souring on for week six, as he could hit a wall this week when he gets a Panthers run defense that ranks #2 over the last four weeks. Carolina has had issues against the pass this year, but the run defense is spot on. They know Ingram and in a must-win game, they may sell out to shut down the run.
Ingram comes out of his bye week red hot, as he put up 22+ fantasy points in each of his last two outings. That being said, the matchup does not look great on paper and with Cam Newton back in the saddle, it could be the Panthers that dictate the pace of this game.
Terrelle Pryor vs. Titans Secondary
Tennessee no longer seems like a joke, as they’ve really stifled top receivers lately. They held DeAndre Hopkins to just one catch in week four and last week they shut Jarvis Landry down (three catches), as well.
Given Cleveland’s shaky quarterback situation and the Titans ranking (7th against WRs) it makes sense to jump off the Pryor bandwagon for week six.
Dwayne Allen vs. Texans Pass D
Jordan Reed draws the toughest tight end matchup of the week, but he’s Jordan Reed, so we’re going to stray from having you fade him for the moment. Instead, it’s Dwayne Allen we should shy away from, as he gets the #2 defense against tight ends.
Houston is fading a bit with J.J. Watt on the shelf, but they still stifle tight ends and this week get a TE who really sees his role change from week to week. Allen had a big week five, but he’s pretty inconsistent, so it stands to reason he’ll be far less involved this week. Throw in a tough matchup against a rival, and that makes even more sense.
Matchups to Target
Russell Wilson vs. Falcons Secondary
Wilson was hobbled (ankle/knee) the last time we saw him, but that didn’t stop him from torching a suspect Jets defense for 3 scores. He’s had the past week to rest up and now the Seahawks host the Falcons in a huge “battle of the birds” contest. Even if Atlanta wins, they’re not stopping Wilson. Their pass rush is very hit and miss and Wilson finally has something cooking. Oh, and they’re dead last against fantasy quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
Carson Palmer vs. Jets Pass D
Palmy is another DFS quarterback we like for week six, as the Jets are simply reeling right now at flat out cannot stop the pass. Palmer should return from a concussion and really needs to get going if the 2-3 Cardinals are ever going to turn their season around.
Luckily Palmer’s first game back (he sat out of week five) is against New York, who ranks 31st against quarterbacks over the past four weeks. You should be able to safely dial Palmer up in week six.
LeSean McCoy vs. 49ers Run Defense
I like Shady regardless of matchup, as the Bills want to run the ball and they’re red hot right now with three straight wins. Things are clicking and your boy McCoy is probably one of the most reliable rushers in fantasy football (13+ fantasy points in every game this year, 20+ in last three).
LeSean McCoy leaving no survivors this season. pic.twitter.com/D6200uTBJ4
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) October 11, 2016
On top of his role, talent and recent success, he gets a cakewalk matchup with the Niners. There are going to be so many opportunities for Shady to pay off here, as he looks to crush a 49ers run D that ranks 31st against running backs over the last four games.
Giants WRs vs. Ravens Secondary
We said we wouldn’t, but it’s back to the well with the G-Men, who laid an egg in Green Bay last week but have too much upside to completely bypass. Hear us out: Sterling Shepard is too talented to be stuck in a rut forever and Odell Beckham Jr. just finally scored for the first time in 2016 last week.
The matchup this week suggests greener pastures are ahead, too, as the Ravens are getting absolutely torched right now, ranking just 30th against the position over the last four weeks. Baltimore is regressing with two straight losses, too, so I can see the Giants getting something going through the air in week six.
Delanie Walker vs. Browns Pass D
Last, but not least, is Delanie Walker. Walker returned to relevance last week (17 fantasy points) and has now seen at least 6 targets in each of his last three contests. The role is there, he’s involved in the red-zone and this week he draws the Browns, who are dead last against tight ends over the last four weeks.
Martellus Bennett just dropped three scores on these guys last week, so the upside is amazing. Luckily Walker is already a decent bet most weeks and also is a fair price at DraftKings. He probably won’t score three times, but the value and matchup is too good to ignore. Feel free to fire him up in week six.
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