Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Preview: Sleepers, Busts and More
Week six in daily fantasy football is already here, with Thursday night’s game between the Broncos and Chargers out of the way. That gave us an early look at the unpredictable nature we might be able to expect this week, as Hunter Henry destroyed Denver’s seemingly elite defense in an unlikely San Diego win.
NFL DFS staples like Emmanuel Sanders, Melvin Gordon, C.J. Anderson and others, meanwhile, disappointed.
It wasn’t the ideal setting for daily fantasy football glory, of course, so we’ll aim to focus on the situations and players you’ll want to target (and avoid) going into the rest of the week.
To do that, we’ll take a look at our favorite (and not to favorite) plays with a dive into some sleepers, busts, chalk and contrarian plays. Let’s get to it:
Note: Prices used from DraftKings.com
Top Week 6 NFL DFS Sleepers
- Brian Hoyer, QB, Bears ($5.8k)
- DeAndre Washington, RB, Raiders ($4.2k)
- Eli Rogers, WR, Steelers ($3k)
- Coby Fleener, TE, Saints ($3.5k)
- Raves DEF ($2.6k)
Hoyer is dancing a fine line between being a sleeper and a total chalk play. He’s cheap, gets a burnable Jaguars defense and has put up 20+ fantasy points three weeks in a row.
Brian Hoyer is on pace to break the league’s single-season record for completion percentage.
— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurke_SI) October 13, 2016
While he’s clearly an attractive play, it’s possible his ownership stays fairly low since there are so many good quarterbacks with plus matchups to consider this week.
Moving on, DeAndre Washington may have another shot at erupting, as Latavius Murray will miss his second game in as many weeks. Washington was decent last week in a slightly expanded role, but saw a TD get vultured by Oakland’s running back. If he can maintain that role and get a score, he’ll definitely pay off in week six.
Rogers may be a nice NFL DFS sleeper either way this week, but the shaky status of deep threat Sammie Coates (finger) may give him a considerable boost. His role is hit or miss, but the Dolphins aren’t scary and he’s the minimum price at DK.
Fleener might be a fun sleeper, seeing as he’s at home against a Panthers defense that has ranked just 30th against the tight end position over the past four weeks. He has explosive upside in what could be a shootout and it’s possible he’s fairly low-owned with other more attractive TE options on the main slate.
Baltimore has been a pretty stable defense for much of 2016, notching at least 6 fantasy points in four of their five games. This week they get a Giants offense that has really been struggling to punch in touchdowns. If that can keep up for just one more week, the Ravens look like a fun, cheap sleeper at the team defense slot.
Players to Avoid
- Eli Manning, QB, Giants ($5.9k)
- Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons ($4.8k)
- Terrelle Pryor, WR, Browns ($6.1k)
- Jordan Reed, TE, Redskins ($6.1k)
- Chiefs DEF ($2.8k)
You can probably cue the exact opposite now that we’re vouching for the Ravens D and telling you to avoid Eli, but the numbers suggest playing him in week six would be a mistake. He fired in 3 TDs in week one, but since has just two scores and three picks. Baltimore isn’t a favorable matchup, either, having given up just the 8th most points to opposing quarterbacks in 2016.
Coleman scored three touchdowns three games ago and that’s proven to be quite the anomoly. He’s mostly getting his production as a receiver in a split backfield and after going nuts last week, he might look like a cheap value play. That’s doubtful, seeing as Seattle ranks 2nd against receiving running backs (12 catches, 0 scores on the year) and 10th overall against the position on the year.
Pryor is another NFL DFS player to avoid, seeing as he’s slowly fallen away from his elite week three performance. This week things get even more difficult, as he gets a Titans defense that does well against the pass (6th against WRs) and has shut down the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Jarvis Landry in successive weeks.
Reed feels like an obvious fade on paper, seeing as he has yet to even be cleared (concussion symptoms).
Jordan Reed is surprisingly listed as questionable, rather than doubtful or out, after another concussion https://t.co/AGMY1dEc4K
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 14, 2016
He’s a clear player to avoid if he doesn’t play, but we don’t love him even if he suits up. The injury risk is there, but he’d also be taking on an Eagles pass defense that ranks #1 against the tight end position. That’s a big bowl of “no thanks” on our side of things.
Kansas City exploded two weeks ago and gets Justin Houston back this week, so many might think they represent serious value in week six. Perhaps, but we’re not biting with a huge AFC West clash going down in Oakland. The Raiders have been very tough to stop in 2016, and KC’s defense so far hasn’t really been all that elite. They gave up 43 points last week and have allowed 100+ rushing yards three out of four games.
Top Chalk Plays
- Cam Newton, QB, Panthers ($8.1k)
- Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers ($7.9k)
- Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers ($10k)
- Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots ($6.7k)
- Bills DEF ($3.7k)
Cam Newton looks to be back from a concussion that robbed him of a week five start, and with the Panthers in a bad 1-4 hole, he figures to be set up for a huge game.
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 14, 2016
You can double down on that narrative, as he gets a bad Saints defense that is just 24th against quarterbacks on the year. He’s the most expensive QB on the week six NFL DFS slate, but he’ll probably be worth the hefty price tag. Just make sure he starts.
Ditto for Bell, who comes in as the most expensive running back and has been awesome (24+ fantasy points) in both of his first two games back from a suspension. It’s tough to imagine him falling on his face here, as he actually hasn’t even truly exploded with a big TD game yet. A date with the Fins could provide that.
Brown is super pricey, but people will probably wrongly think that makes him contrarian as he prepares for an explosive showdown with a bad Miami secondary. The guy has been ho-hum with 22+ fantasy points in each of his last three games and could be slated for a career day against a Miami pass defense that ranks 29th against WRs on the year. Not having Sammie Coates (finger) potentially gives him a serious boost, as well.
The Gronk returned to NFL DFS relevancy last week, but got three touchdowns vultured from him by fellow Pats tight end, Martellus Bennett. Tom Brady should make that up to him this week, even with a tough matchup on paper against a Bengals defense that is middle of the pack against TEs.
Buffalo is chalk to end all chalk this week, as they’re pricey but get a home date with a dreadful 49ers team. Colin Kaepernick starting is probably going to be the biggest gift ever for them.
- Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons ($6.7k)
- Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns ($4.6k)
- Julio Jones, WR, Falcons ($8.9k)
- Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars ($4.2k)
- Jaguars DEF ($2.7k)
Going contrarian doesn’t always have to be a huge gamble, but this week riding a Matt Ryan/Julio Jones stack feels like a risk worth taking. Jones got absolutely nullified two weeks ago against a good Broncos defense, and he’ll also have Richard Sherman draping him all day.
Matt Ryan is no joke. The Falcons QB is first in fantasy points scored and is not stopping anytime soon pic.twitter.com/hoKglzvdKL
— Bleacher Report NFL (@BR_NFL) October 10, 2016
Seattle isn’t a good matchup, either, as they play host and boast the #1 defense against QBs and #3 defense against WRs. The Falcons are something special in 2016, though, so it could be worth it to throw caution to the wind and stack the seemingly unstackable in week six.
Crowell could be a fun contrarian play, too, albeit a very risky one against a staunch Titans defense that ranks 5th against running backs in 2016. That could mean bad numbers, but Crowell maintains a very solid role, goal-line upside and has twice busted out for 120+ rushing yards. We don’t like him this week at all, but few would see this one coming.
Julius Thomas doesn’t really have a risky matchup in week six, as the Bears are simply a middle of the pack unit against tight ends. The kicker here is Thomas seems to be getting lost in the shuffle of appealing TE plays this week. He’s not the top option, but he’s pretty cheap and has 11+ fantasy points in two of his three starts. He has the talent and upside to go off in any game and could very well do so here.
Last, but not least, is the Jags defense. Brian Hoyer and the Bears are a popular value unit offensively, yet people seem to be ignoring that he’s still BRIAN FREAKING HOYER and you know, it’s THE BEARS. So, apologies to Chicago fans, but this isn’t exactly a quarterback/team to fully trust. Jacksonville isn’t, either, but the Jaguars do have a ton of defensive talent and have been solid lately (8 and 9 fantasy points in their last two games). It’s not as if betting against Brian Hoyer and the Bears is a huge leap, after all.
That does it for our look at week six in daily fantasy football. Hopefully some of our picks help you out or at least lend some insight that assists you elsewhere. Regardless, we wish you well in your week six NFL DFS contests!
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