Andy Dalton and Week 7’s Daily Fantasy Football Value Picks at DraftKings
Week six was insane for daily fantasy football. Absolutely insane. Don’t believe us? Let us count thy ways.
Cole Beasley scored two touchdowns and poured on 23 fantasy points. That nearly tripled the production Antonio Brown bestowed upon our NFL DFS brethren.
Jay Ajayi went nuts, putting up 200+ rushing yards and two scores on a day where Arian Foster returned from injury. Spencer Ware, on a day Jamaal Charles was scheduled to see a bigger role and even scored, also went crazy with over 130 rushing yards and a score.
— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2016
Ajayi had over 30 fantasy points, while Ware topped 20. You know who didn’t? Trendy “safe” picks, Le’Veon Bell, Carlos Hyde, Jordan Howard and DeMarco Murray.
Week six was the week of the “out of nowhere insane running back production”, too, with Matt Jones piling on 135 rushing yards and a touchdown, Terrance West producing 100+ total yards and two scores and Jonathan Stewart (in return from injury) running for 85 yards and two touchdowns of his own.
Running back wasn’t the only place for NFL DFS insanity. Case Keenum finished as a top-5 fantasy quarterback with over 300 yards passing and four total touchdowns (shame on you, Lions), while Kenny Britt (100+ yards and 2 scores) and Golden Tate (165 yards and a score) had pretty much the best games of their careers.
Week six was insane.
The one good thing that came away from week six, of course, was we still saw the Saints/Panthers game live up to expectations, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski went off together and both LeSean McCoy and Lamar Miller were spot-on predictable monsters.
Oh, and we got to see the benefit of maddening value in daily fantasy football, front and center.
There’s more where that came from, as we dive into week 7 of NFL DFS with an early look at the best value buys at DraftKings:
- Marcus Mariota – Titans ($6k)
- Andy Dalton – Bengals ($6k)
- Jameis Winston – Buccaneers ($5.9k)
- Tyrod Taylor – Bills ($5.5k)
- Sam Bradford – Vikings ($5.1k)
Mariota has really stepped it up the last two weeks (6 TDs) and there’s little reason to think he starts sulking against a bad Colts defense in week seven. He remains a great price on DK and figures to have 200+ yards and another 2-3 scores.
Marcus Mariota has averaged at least 0.93 fantasy points per dropback in each of the last 2 weeks. No other QB has two such games this year. pic.twitter.com/yn2PuGexUb
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 17, 2016
Dalton fared well on the road against the Pats last week, and despite some scoring issues has been as stable as ever with 21+ fantasy points in four of six games this year. A Tyler Eifert return this week could make him an elite fantasy passer, but facing the Browns alone just might do that.
Winston doesn’t have an amazing matchup by the numbers against the Niners this week, but San Francisco is falling apart and has given up some big DFS outings. Cam Newton destroyed them in week two and Tyrod Taylor notched 20 fantasy points against them last week. Winston will be fresh off a bye and at this low price could be one of the top NFL DFS value buys of week seven.
The aforementioned Taylor is again in the mix this week, as he remains quite cheap and gets palatable matchup with the Dolphins. In a big divisional game, this may not be a bad spot to trust Taylor and his dual threat ability.
Why not roll the dice with Sam Bradford this week? He’s almost the minimum price for quarterbacks at DK in week seven and gets an Eagles defense that has fallen apart the past two weeks. Bradford leads a 5-0 Minnesots squad and has yet to toss a pick in 2016, so worse risks have been taken.
- Devonta Freeman – Falcons ($5.9k)
- Spencer Ware – Chiefs ($5.8k)
- Jamaal Charles – Chiefs ($5.7k)
- Carlos Hyde – 49ers ($5.6k)
- Giovani Bernard – Bengals ($4.8k)
- James White – Patriots ($4.6k)
- Jay Ajayi – Dolphins ($4.5k)
Freeman took a step back last week, but in week seven he’s back at home against a Chargers defense getting destroyed by running backs. He remains a solid price and may be in position for a massive outing.
Ware and Charles are together here as solid value picks with a nice matchup in week seven. Ware looks like the superior play at the moment, while this is dicey with both guys getting work. If we catch wind of one getting more work for the other, they could become a must-start option.
Hyde was a disappointment last week, but has three 20+ fantasy outings and in week seven draws a Buccaneers defense that can get burned at times. He has a shoulder issue, though, so keep an eye on his status.
Gio saw his role increase last week and he’s now topped 13+ fantasy points in each of his last two games. His role, talent and versatility give him a shot in any matchup, but week seven’s date with the Browns might make him the top value play of the week.
We can’t ignore White or Ajayi, who both went nuts last week and could be in line to crush it again in week seven. White has officially taken over the “Dion Lewis role” and is a mighty fine try against a Steelers defense that just got demolished by Ajayi last week.
Speaking of Ajayi, he does have a tough date with a good Bills defense, but he’s super cheap and ignoring 200+ rushing yards isn’t easy. It’s possible he’s a flash in the pan, but he actually looked quite legit last week and at this price doesn’t really need to be amazing to pay off.
- Mike Wallace – Ravens ($5.8k)
- DeSean Jackson – Redskins ($5.7k)
- Allen Hurns – Jaguars ($5k)
- Michael Thomas – Saints ($4.7k)
- Tyrell Williams – Chargers ($4.4k)
Value doesn’t end at the running back position, as the Ravens finally started to air it out a bit more last week and could be in for a ton of big plays this week against a bad Jets secondary. Mike Wallace specifically is due for a long score and he just might get it in week seven.
The same goes for D-Jax, who could boast a huge load if tight end Jordan Reed misses his second straight contest. That might be the case anyways, as Jackson draws a matchup with a shaky Lions defense that got torched by Kenny Britt last week, of all receivers.
Hurns and Thomas are solid throw-ins that haven’t really exploded in 2016, but both have been quite reliable. Both receivers have topped at least 11 fantasy points in four of five games this year. Both also appear to have favorable matchups on paper this week, facing the Raiders and Chiefs, respectively.
Another guy to keep an eye on is San Diego’s #2 guy, Tyrell Williams. He’s put up 12+ fantasy points in three of six games and has the talent to explode (25 fantasy points two games ago). In week seven the Chargers could be involved in a shootout with the Falcons in Atlanta, so Williams makes sense as an interesting value pick in daily fantasy football leagues.
- Tyler Eifert – Bengals ($4.4k)
- Dennis Pitta – Ravens ($4k)
- Julius Thomas – Jaguars ($3.9k)
- Hunter Henry – Chargers ($3.6k)
- Gary Barnidge – Browns ($3.2k)
Tyler Eifert could again be the top value tight end pick, should he finally make his long awaited return from ankle and back issues. He’s no lock to suit up, but a date with a bad Browns defense awaits if he is cleared to play.
Eifert is far from a lock, so it’s likely we’ll be finding our TE value elsewhere in week 7 daily fantasy football contests. Perhaps we get that via Pitta, who continues to have an awesome role in Baltimore (8+ targets in four of 6 games) but has yet to score. He still provides solid PPR value regardless, but if he can score on a shaky Jets secondary this week, he’d end up being a killer value play.
It’s tough to know when rookie tight end Hunter Henry will hit a wall, but it may be safe to assume it won’t come in week seven.
The Chargers drafted Hunter Henry thinking he’d succeed Antonio Gates. It happened faster than expected. https://t.co/FibEcbGitm
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 14, 2016
He gets a favorable matchup against a weak Falcons pass defense and San Diego is likely to be throwing a lot in what figures to be a shootout in ATL. That, and he’s virtually matchup proof after crushing the Broncos a week ago.
Julius Thomas and Gary Barnidge also deserve mentions here, as Thomas has the size and athleticism to be an absolute terror in any given week. Facing a bad Raiders pass defense could make him a terrific play in week seven. The same goes for Barnidge, as the Bengals got dismantled by the TE position recently and Cleveland should be passing all day this week.
- Patriots ($2.9k)
- Ravens ($2.8k)
- Chiefs ($2.6k)
The value at team defense really only goes three deep in week seven, but one needn’t look far beyond the Patriots, Ravens or Chiefs.
New England looks like the top play, as Ben Roethlisberger is out (knee) and the Pats will go up against Landry Jones. That severely hinders Pittsburgh’s explosiveness, which is telling considering they could only muster 15 points last week in Miami.
Baltimore has had one bad defensive game all year, finding a way to pile on 6+ fantasy points in five of six contests in 2016. In week seven the figure to be reliable again, as they get a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Jets offense that can’t stop turning the ball over.
Kansas City is also deserving of a nod, seeing as they shut down a good Raiders offense last week and have now posted 7+ fantasy points in three of their last five outings. The return of Justin Houston gave them a boost in week six and this week they could have their way with a Saints offense that tends to sputter on the road.
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