With only a few days left until the biggest football game of the year gets underway, sportsbooks are expecting a huge rush of SB 53 bets leading up to the kickoff. If you are still looking to place wagers on the big game make sure to avoid the following common Super Bowl betting mistakes.
Whether it’s gambling or betting on sports, one of the first things that an experienced gambler or any type of sports betting resource will teach you is to only bet or play with money that you can afford to lose. This means don’t risk your rent money or funds that you need for bills.
The internet is littered with horror stories and gambling nightmares where people lost their homes and cars or the electricity was shut off because they blew all of their money on sports betting.
The reality of sports betting is that most people lose. It’s important to accept this and to set realistic expectations. For every one or two stories you hear about people winning big on the Super Bowl, you will have 10 stories of losses.
In addition to using money that’s supposed to go toward living expenses, many inexperienced bettors or beginners don’t know how to effectively manage their bankrolls. Simply put, it’s a common mistake among the less experienced bettors to wager too much of their bankroll on one event, one game or one type of wager.
Specifically, if you are planning to bet on the Super Bowl and that’s it, then you should look into placing a few SB LIII bets instead of putting all of your cash on just one bet like which player will win the Super Bowl 53 MVP. This isn’t like playing roulette and you go “all in” on black.
Taking it a step further, most experienced football bettors only wager a percentage of their bankroll on a game. They don’t go “all in” as if they’re playing Texas hold’em. Furthermore, they make sure to balance out their wagers among various games that they have properly handicapped.
Finally, experienced bettors also keep track of every wager they place.
Ignoring the “juice” is a huge mistake that first time and inexperienced bettors make. The juice, also known as “the vig,” is the commission that sportsbooks charge on listed wagers. The commission is how sportsbooks make money when there’s an even amount of wagers placed on a given Super Bowl bet.
For example, the Patriots have an O/U of 29.5 points for SB LIII. However, BetOnline lists this bet at -120 odds and other sites list it at -110 odds. One reason this bet is not “even” is because the online sportsbook has added their commission to the wager.
Ignoring the juice flows right into this next mistake. In fact, this is probably the biggest mistake that beginners make when trying to wager on the Super Bowl. Shopping for the best betting lines is one of the most important things a sports bettor can do.
Shopping for betting lines and comparing Super Bowl odds can help bettors find the best odds possible, which may lead to one or all of the following benefits:
Most people don’t go into a store and buy the first TV they see. Instead, they will shop around in the store and other stores or online sites to find the best deal. This is the same concept that should be applied to shopping for SB LIII betting lines.
The only way to make the most of line shopping is by having accounts at multiple sportsbooks. How can you take advantage of great odds if you don’t even have an account with that specific online betting site? Sticking with just one sportsbook leaves you at the mercy of that sportsbook. That means you are stuck with whatever betting odds they list for the Super Bowl.
For example, what if your betting site has the Rams listed at +2.5 points for SB 53, but you see another site that has the Rams listed at +3 points. Now, if the Patriots were to win by a FG, then you lose your bet placed at the main sportsbook you use. But, if you went with the second site, then this would’ve ended up being a Push and you don’t lose any money.
Another reason to have more than one sports betting account is to take advantage of any promos, bonuses and lowered juice. Sometimes betting sites offer a great deal on a major event like the Super Bowl especially if you are signing up for the first time. These bonuses and promos could be anything from matching a first deposit to free wagers.
Some betting sites go as far to reduce the juice on the Super Bowl to attract new bettors.
In poker, we call this going full “tilt.” It’s when you get emotionally upset or frustrated at losing and decide to play more aggressively and recklessly. Ultimately, when this happens, you almost always end up losing big.
The most common scenario for chasing Super Bowl bets can be seen around halftime or in the second half of the game. Typically, this is brought on by a panic or frustration over how pre-game wagers are turning out.
Unfortunately, when you get into this panic mode, it almost always ends up bad for your bets and your bankroll because:
Initially, when the SB LIII lines first came out, the Patriots were a +1 underdog. A ton of bets and money were placed by sharp bettors and it caused the line to quickly shift by 3.5 points to the Patriots becoming a 2.5-point betting favorite.
Ignoring this sharp action can be costly. Professional bettors win at a higher rate and only make wagers that they feel have a high probability of winning. In this case, they jumped all over the Patriots getting 1 point.
At the very least, it keeps you from beginning with a huge disadvantage.
Super Bowl 53 reportedly has over 600 prop bets for the game. Although the wide range of betting options can help smart bettors find value, it has the opposite effect on beginners. Inexperienced bettors can fall victim to betting on too many SB LIII prop bets.
Placing too many wagers on the SB can cause you to risk too much money and to take bets that you aren’t confident in. Keeping your bets to 2-3 wagers would be ideal for beginners. Don’t get in over your head with too many SB wagers.
Betting on your favorite team or player is a recipe for disaster.
It takes handicapping football and throws it out the window because of your blind loyalty.
In regards to the SB, if you are a Patriots or a Rams fan, instead of jumping on the moneyline of your favorite team perhaps you can look into the O/U or a prop bet that doesn’t test your loyalty.
NFL stats is a huge part of handicapping football. Unfortunately, one common mistake that many beginners or inexperienced sports bettors make on the Super Bowl is by ignoring vital team and player stats.
For example, the Rams were the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL during the regular season as they averaged 139.4 ypg. The Patriots defense was 11th against the run as they allowed 112.7 ypg. That’s not bad, but it’s clear that LA has the advantage.
Another stat that could play a big factor into your SB 53 wager is that the Rams were 5th in the league in passing as they averaged 281.7 ypg. New England had the 22nd ranked pass defense as they gave up 246.4 ypg.
An individual key matchup to consider is Gurley against the Patriots pass defense that allows running backs to get 49.1 receiving ypg, which is 2 yards more per game than Gurley averaged (47.1). This means that prop bets for Rams players like Jared Goff and Todd Gurley could be worth looking into because of the matchups they have against the Patriots defense.
With that said, beginners might not take the time to look at these statistical matchups and find potential advantages.
Currently, there are no key players on either team that are suffering from recent injuries, which could hinder the team’s success in SB 53. But, that doesn’t mean that inexperienced bettors are paying enough attention to the injury report and news coming out about potential roster moves.
In football, injuries happen all of the time. If you aren’t on top of these injuries then you might miss out on a potential transaction that could affect your SB 53 wager.
Last, but certainly not least, is one of the biggest mistakes people make not only on sports betting, but on the Super Bowl itself. Finding betting value starts with having a solid grasp of certain aspects of the game or specific wagers themselves.
For example, choosing the Rams spread of +2.5 points might seem like a solid wager to you. If that’s the case then shopping for lines and comparing odds would help you to find the best value. Bovada has the Rams listed at +3 points, which gives you that extra ½ point and could be the difference between a loss and a push.
Furthermore, if you don’t care about the half point then you will also see that each online betting site has different odds for the same spread.
Choose the odds that allow you to risk the least, while potentially winning the most. This is betting value at its best.
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