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2018 U.S. Open Tennis Betting Preview, Odds and Prediction

The 2018 edition of the U.S. Open, the 4th and final Grand Slam tennis tournament of the year, will take place on Monday, August 27th and run for two weeks before finishing up on Sunday, September 9th. This year’s tournament marks the 50th anniversary of when the U.S. Open first allowed professional players to participate in America’s only Grand Slam.

TL;DR
  • Men’s Winner: Novak Djokovic (+250)
  • Women’s Winner: Simona Halep (+650)
  • Men’s Betting Value: Marin Cilic (+1800)
  • Men’s Longshot: Stan Wawrinka (+3300)
  • Women’s Betting Value: Kiki Bertens (+1600)
  • Women’s Longshot: Caroline Wozniacki (+2500)


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The tournament seeds have been revealed and for the first time since 2010, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer sit atop the men’s side. Novak Djokovic was seeded 6th and comes into this tournament red-hot. Juan Marin del Potro is 3rd, Zverev is 4th and Kevin Anderson rounds out the top 5.

For the women’s side, Simona Halep is once again the top seed at a Grand Slam this year. The 2017 U.S. Open women’s champ, Sloane Stephens, is seeded 3rd overall. Serena Williams received a generous 17th seed despite still being far down in the overall world rankings. Of note, Garbine Muguruza drew a 12th seed, this coming after being a 3-seed at Wimbledon. Venus Williams is 16th, just one spot ahead of her younger sister.
Here are the top sites we recommend for betting on the 2018 US Open:

With all of tennis’s biggest stars converging on Flushing Meadows, fans and tennis bettors are in for a thrilling Grand Slam tournament.

2018 U.S. Open Men’s Betting Odds

The following U.S. men’s betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Novak Djokovic +250
  • Rafael Nadal +330
  • Roger Federer +500
  • Alexander Zverev +1000
  • Juan Martin Del Potro +1600
  • Marin Cilic +1800
  • Andy Murray +3300
  • Stan Wawrinka +3300
  • Grigor Dimitrov +3300
  • Kevin Anderson +3300
  • Milos Raonic +3300
  • Nick Kyrgios +3300
  • Dominic Thiem +4000
  • John Isner +4000
  • Kei Nishikori +4000
  • David Goffin +6600
  • Denis Shapovalov +6600
  • Hyeong Chung +6600
  • Kyle Edmund +6600
  • Borna Coric +8000
  • Gael Monfils +8000
  • Jack Sock +8000
  • Jo Wilfried Tsonga +8000
  • Lucas Pouille +8000
  • Richard Gasquet +8000
  • Roberto Bautista Agut +8000
  • Sam Querrey +8000
  • Tomas Berdych +8000
  • Philipp Kohlschreiber +15000

The Favorites to Win the 2018 U.S. Open

What’s been incredible about the 2018 season, is that Nadal, Federer and Djokovic have all won a Grand Slam title this year. So, these 3 tennis greats are coming into the U.S. Open looking to win their 2nd Grand Slam title of the year and to add one more to their impressive overall resumes.

Novak Djokovic (+250)

Good news for Novak fans, the tennis superstar is rounding back into elite form after a lengthy battle with injuries. Bad news for the rest of the male tennis stars, as this means Djokovic is ready to reclaim his spot as the world’s #1 men’s player. So far, Djokovic is 33-10 on the year and 14-2 in Grand Slams. Against other Top 10 players, Novak has gone 6-3, but I expect that number to increase after this tournament. Djokovic limped his way through the early part of 2018 before a Quarter Finals appearance at the French Open and then winning Wimbledon. Novak also won in Cincinnati right before the U.S. Open as he defeated Federer for the tournament win.

Djokovic has made 12 appearances at the U.S. Open for his career. He’s won 2 of these Grand Slams (2011 and 2015) and has finished runner up on 5 other occasions. That’s 7 Finals appearances in 12 tries. Overall, Novak has a 62-10 record at Flushing Meadows and is a serious threat to win this year. Djokovic didn’t participate in last year’s tournament due to his injury. But, after winning in Wimbledon and at Cincinnati, Novak looks like the man to beat in this Grand Slam tournament.

Rafael Nadal (+330)

Nadal is the current #1 men’s player in the world and just won at the Toronto Masters where he got his last preparation work in prior to the U.S. Open. On the season, Nadal has also won the French Open, Rome Masters, Barcelona, and Monte Carlo Masters. He made it to the Semi Finals of Wimbledon and the Quarter Finals of the Australian Open.

Nadal is the reigning U.S. Open champ and is the one man that most pundits and fans believe can take down Djokovic this year. However, Novak currently holds the slight overall edge over Nadal with a 27-25 record. Novak is also 18-7 against Nadal on hard courts, which is the surface at Flushing Meadows. However, Nadal and Djokovic have played against each other 3 times in the U.S. Open finals and Rafael holds the 2-1 record.

For his career, Nadal has 4 U.S. Open Finals appearances and is 3-1. Will he make it 4-1 this year?

Roger Federer (+500)

Federer’s 2018 season has been up and down. He’s won the Australian Open, Rotterdam and Stuttgart, but lost in the Finals at Indian Wells, Cincinnati and Halle. He didn’t participate at the French Open this year and was upset by Kevin Anderson in the Quarter Finals of Wimbledon. Additionally, Federer is 2-3 against the Top 10 this year, 33-5 overall, and 21-3 on hard court surfaces.

Last year, Federer only made it to the Quarter Finals of the U.S. Open before being bounced by Juan Martin del Potro. Federer hasn’t won a U.S. Open tournament since 2008, which was the last of his 5 straight wins. It was an unprecedented reign of dominance at Flushing Meadows. Federer did make it to the Finals in two other years: 2009 when he lost to Del Potro and in 2015 when he lost to Djokovic. Federer does have a U.S. Open Finals victory over Novak, but that came in 2007.

For his career, Federer is 82-12 at the U.S. Open and 5-2 in the Finals. This will mark his 18th entry into the main tournament. Although Djokovic and Nadal are ahead of Federer according to the odds, you can never count out the 20-time Grand Slam winner.

Alexander Zverev (+1000)

I’m a bit surprised at Zverev’s odds being this high. Yes, he’s the #4 player in the world, but he doesn’t have a great track record at Grand Slams. In 2018, Alexander has gone 43-13, but is 8-3 in Grand Slams. He lost in the 3rd round of the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and he lost in the Quarter Finals of the French Open. Furthermore, Zverev is only 4-4 against Top 10 ranked players this year.

Alexander has shown some success in 2018 on the hard court as he’s gone 20-7. He did win in Madrid, Washington and Munich, while also finishing as runner up in Miami and Rome.

With that said, I have very little confidence in Zverev to win this Grand Slam or even make it to the Finals. The furthest he’s ever gone in the U.S. Open was the 2nd round in 2016 and 2017. With the men’s side being stacked with proven hard court studs, I would avoid Zverev altogether.

Juan Martin Del Potro (+1600)

Del Potro might be the #3 seed in the U.S. Open tournament, but oddsmakers have him as #5 right now. For the year, Juan is 37-10 with an 11-3 Grand Slam record. He was bounced in the 3rd round at the Australian Open, made it to the Semi Finals of the French Open and stumbled in the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon. However, Del Potro has an impressive 26-6 hard court record this year and has also gone 6-3 against the Top 10.

Juan only has 1 Grand Slam title on his resume and it was the 2009 U.S. Open where he beat Roger Federer. Last year, he made it to the Semi Finals before losing to the eventual winner Rafael Nadal in 4 sets. For his career, Del Potro is 29-8 at the U.S. Open. Del Potro is often considered the one man that none of the Big 3 want to face on the hard court due to his success on this surface. Could he bounce Federer, Nadal or Djokovic this year?

U.S. Open Men’s Betting Value

Marin Cilic at +1800 provides solid betting value for this year’s tournament. Cilic has gone 33-12 on the year with an 11-3 record at Grand Slams. He made it to the Finals of the Australian Open, but was bounced in the Quarter Finals at the French Open and upset in the 2nd round of Wimbledon. Cilic won in London and also had Semi Finals appearances at Rome, Cincinnati and Pune. His best tennis has been witnessed on the hard courts where he’s gone 16-6 so far.

For his career, Cilic has gone 1-2 in Grand Slam Finals losing to Federer at the 2018 Australian Open and the 2017 Wimbledon. His one Grand Slam victory came at the 2014 U.S. Open. Overall, Cilic has a 29-8 record at Flushing Meadows and has made it to at least the Quarter Finals on 3 other occasions. Marin comes into this tournament very confident after taking Djokovic to the limits in their Semi Finals match at the Cincinnati Masters. Cilic lost 2 sets to 1, but showed that he could hang with Novak. Let’s not forget that he did beat Novak at the London/Queen’s Club a few months ago.

The 2018 U.S. Open Men’s Longshot

Stan Wawrinka at +3300 odds is my longshot pick to win the U.S. Open. Let’s face it, nobody outside of the Big 3 will win this tournament, but Wawrinka is the best of the longshot bunch. Currently ranked 101st in the world, Wawrinka is 11-13 on the year, 2-3 in Grand Slams and 8-7 on the hard court. However, keep in mind that Wawrinka was returning from a knee injury and trying to get back into form.

He didn’t play in the 2017 U.S. Open due to having knee surgery. With that said, Wawrinka won the 2016 U.S. Open where he defeated Novak Djokovic. Stan has a record of 38-11 for his career at Flushing Meadows with 2 Semi Finals and 2 Quarter Finals appearances.

Wawrinka has showed that his form and tennis legs are coming back, and it’s just in time for the U.S. Open. Stan lost last week at the Cincinnati Masters to Federer in the Quarter Finals and lost to Nadal at the Toronto Masters two weeks ago. He had strong performances at both tournaments and pushed two of the sport’s top 3 stars to their limits.

2018 U.S. Open Women’s Betting Odds

The following U.S. women’s betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Serena Williams +400
  • Angelique Kerber +650
  • Simona Halep +650
  • Sloane Stephens +900
  • Petra Kvitova +1400
  • Elina Svitolina +1600
  • Garbine Muguruza +1600
  • Kiki Bertens +1600
  • Madison Keys +1600
  • Karolina Pliskova +1800
  • Caroline Wozniacki +2500
  • Daria Kasatkina +2500
  • Jelena Ostapenko +2500
  • Maria Sharapova +2500
  • Victoria Azarenka +2500
  • Johanna Konta +3300
  • Venus Williams +3300
  • Carolina Garcia +4000
  • Julia Goerges +4000
  • Naomi Osaka +4000
  • Agneiszka Radwanska +5000
  • Anastasija Sevastova +5000
  • Coco Vandeweghe +5000
  • Dominika Cibulkova +5000
  • Lucie Safarova +5000

The Women’s U.S. Open Favorites

Serena Williams might only be the #17 seed in this tournament, but she’s clearly the bookmakers’ favorite to win the U.S. Open. Surprisingly, the #1 ranked women’s tennis player is only getting the 3rd best odds – Simona Halep. Despite playing poorly at Wimbledon, the 2017 U.S. Open winner Sloane Stephens has cracked the Top 5 in the odds on favorite. But, can anyone beat Serena if she’s healthy?

Serena Williams (+400)

By now, we all know the story about Serena Williams and her struggle to fully recover from pregnancy and child birth. She hasn’t played a lot this year due to her recovery. Additionally, she suffered a minor injury at the French Open that forced her to withdraw. At Wimbledon, Serena made it to the Finals before losing to Angelique Kerber. The question is, did Serena return to form at Wimbledon or did she benefit from all of the top seeds being upset by lower seeds?

Since Wimbledon, Serena has lost 2 of 3 matches and is only 12-5 on the year. Williams was bounced out of the Cincinnati Masters, but isn’t panicking. However, it’s clear that she’s not at her normal elite level of play.

Williams is a 6-time U.S. Open champion and last won the tournament in 2014. She made it to the Semi Finals in 2015 and 2016. For her career, Williams is 89-11 in her 17 appearances at Flushing Meadows.

Although Williams is the odds on favorite to win, unless she’s fully healthy, it’s going to be hard for Serena to break her tie with Chris Evert for 6 career U.S. Open wins in the Open Era.

Angelique Kerber (+650)

The #4 ranked Kerber comes into the U.S. Open on a bit of a downslide after winning Wimbledon by defeating Serena Williams. Angelique lost in the round of 32 at Montreal and then lost in the round of 16 at Cincinnati. Both of these tournaments are considered warm-ups for the U.S. Open.

However, she has fared well in Grand Slams this year. In addition to her Wimbledon win, Kerber made it to the Semi Finals at the Australian Open and the Quarter Finals of the French Open. Kerber has won 76% of her hard court matches this year, which also bodes well for her chances at Flushing Meadows.

In her 10 career U.S. Open appearances, Kerber is 23-9 with 1 Semi Finals appearance in 2011 and one tournament victory in 2016 when she beat Karolina Pliskova to win her second career Grand Slam. Last year, Kerber was bounced in the 1st round and is looking to recapture her 2016 U.S. Open form. If anyone is a threat to Williams in this tournament, it has to be Kerber.

Simona Halep (+650)

It’s not often that the world’s #1 women’s tennis player is the 3rd odds on favorite to win a Grand Slam, but that’s the case here with Simona Halep. She’s been ranked #1 for the majority of the last year and has gone at least 46-8 this year, according to the official WTA site. Halep just lost at Cincinnati in the Finals to Kiki Bertens in a hard fought contest.

On the year, Halep lost in the Finals of the Australian Open, she won the French Open for her first career Grand Slam title, and lost in the 3rd round at Wimbledon. Halep is a better hard court player than grass player and she’s going to be a tough out this year at Flushing Meadows.

In her 8 career U.S. Open appearances, Halep has gone 16-8. Her best showing was in 2015 when she made it to the Semi Finals. Unfortunately, Halep struggled last year and was bounced in the first round. But, since then, she’s shown improved form and play. For 2018, she’s won 85% of her hard court matches. I expect Halep to make a deep run in this tournament and possibly even a Finals appearance.

Sloane Stephens (+900)

Stephens is the reigning U.S. Open champ and the #3 ranked women’s player. However, her 2018 year has been one filled with ups and downs. For example, Sloane made it to the Finals of the French Open where she lost to Halep, but she also lost in the 1st round of the Australian Open and Wimbledon.

Since Wimbledon, she lost in the round of 16 at Washington DC, lost in the Finals of Montreal to Halep, and lost in the round of 16 at Cincinnati.

For her career, Stephens is 15-5 at the U.S. Open. However, prior to winning last year, her best performance was a 4th round showing in 2013. I believe Stephens is a talented player, but her inconsistencies scare me away from betting on her at Flushing Meadows.

Petra Kvitova (+1400)

The #5 ranked women’s tennis player is a 2-time Grand Slam winner, but she has had an abysmal showing in the big tournaments this year. At the Australian Open and Wimbledon, she was bounced in the first round. At the French Open, she made it to the 3rd round. Recently, she lost in the Quarter Finals at Connecticut. She also lost in the Semi Finals at Cincinnati and Round of 16 at Montreal. Both of those losses were to Kiki Bertens.

Last year, Kvitova made it to the Quarter Finals of the U.S. Open, which is the furthest she’s ever gone in this Grand Slam tournament. For her career, Petra is 23-10 at Flushing Meadows over 10 appearances.

The Best U.S. Open Women’s Betting Value

Kiki Bertens at +1600 is great value considering how well she is playing coming into this Grand Slam. She’s jumped up 4 spots in the rankings and currently sits at 13th in the world with a 33-16 record and 2 tournament wins this year.

The Cincinnati Masters is often considered the top lead-in tournament for the U.S. Open and Bertens won it by defeating 4 of the Top 7 women’s tennis players in the world including the Top 2. She beat #1 ranked Simona Halep in the Finals and has gone 8-0 against Top 10 ranked women this summer. She also had a strong showing in Montreal where she defeated another 2 Top 10 ranked women players before stumbling in the Quarter Finals.

No other woman has more momentum coming into this tournament than Bertens. Unfortunately, she hasn’t had much success at the U.S. Open for her career as she’s just 2-6 and was bounced in the 1st round last year. With that said, Bertens is playing her best tennis right now and I expect it to carry her deep into this Grand Slam. She did make it to the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon, so she’s showing great improvement since last year.

The Women’s U.S. Open Longshot

Caroline Wozniacki at +2500 is the best longshot on the board for the women’s side of the U.S. Open. Wozniacki is the #2 ranked women’s player in the world and is 32-12 this year with 2 tournament wins. One of those tournament wins was the Australian Open where she defeated Simona Halep in the Finals. Unfortunately, she didn’t fare as well in the other Grand Slams as Wozniacki was bounced in the 4th round of the French Open and the 2nd round of Wimbledon. For her career, Caroline has 1 Grand Slam win and 2 Grand Slam runner ups.

Both of Wozniacki’s Grand Slam Finals losses came at the U.S. Open (2009 and 2014). For her career, Caroline has gone 35-11 at Flushing Meadows and has gone to the Semi Finals or farther on 5 occasions.

Wozniacki has been a bit banged up over the last few months. However, if she’s healthy then Caroline could be a serious contender for at least a Final 4 spot and a potential upset win at Flushing Meadows.

Who Will Win the 2018 U.S. Open 2018?

On the men’s side, it’s clear that the winner will come from one of the sport’s Big 3: Nadal, Federer and Djokovic. Out of those contenders, Novak is playing the best when fully health. Against Federer, Nadal is 24-22 and just beat Roger at Cincinnati to win that tournament. The last time these two faced off in a Grand Slam, Novak defeated Federer in the Semi Finals of the 2016 Australian Open. Djokovic also beat Federer in the Finals of the 2015 U.S. Open.

Against Nadal, Djokovic is 27-25 and last defeated Rafael in the Semi Finals of Wimbledon, which Novak went on to win. Nadal does hold a 2-1 advantage of Djokovic in U.S. Open Finals. So, you can imagine that will be further motivation for Djokovic to defeat Nadal at Flushing Meadows if they face each other.

Ultimately, Djokovic is rounding back into elite form after his injury and has won 2 major tournaments this summer. Federer hasn’t won a U.S. Open since 2008 and Nadal only won last year’s tournament because Djokovic wasn’t in it.

For the women’s side, things are more difficult to pick a winner. It could easily be a domination by Serena or a longshot like Wozniacki to win the tournament. Serena is a risky bet here because she’s just not looking good and I think her Wimbledon performance was just as much good fortune as it was her recovery process. Getting beat badly in her last two tournaments doesn’t bode well for her at the U.S. Open.

Additionally, Kerber, Stephens and Kvitova come into Flushing Meadows playing inconsistent tennis. Stephens is hit or miss this year, Kerber has looked terrible since beating a non-100% Serena at Wimbledon, and Kvitova has been horrible in Grand Slams this year. Kiki Bertens is playing solid tennis this summer, but has never been in a Finals for any Grand Slam in her career. She offers great value, but I believe the smart bet is on Simona Halep to win the U.S. Open. Halep is a better hard court and clay surface player than grass player, which is evident by her Finals appearance at the Australian Open and her winning the French Open. She just lost in the Finals at Cincinnati, which shows that she’s more than ready for the hard court surface of Flushing Meadows. And, let’s not forget that she’s the #1 ranked women’s tennis player in the world.

Rick Rockwell :