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2018 Wimbledon Betting Preview, Odds and Predictions

On Monday, July 2nd, tennis’ most prestigious Grand Slam gets underway at Wimbledon. This two-week-long tournament pits the world’s best tennis players against each other with the All England Club providing a historic backdrop. As 128 players embark on their tennis dreams, only one man and one woman will stand tall at center court, holding the sport’s most coveted trophies.

This year, Roger Federer returns to defend his crown on the men’s side as does Garbine Muguruza on the women’s side. Both players sit high in the overall odds on favorite to win this year, but they also face some stiff competition that could see the defending champs upstaged.
Here are the top sites we recommend for betting on the 2018 Wimbledon Grand Slam:

2018 Men’s Wimbledon Odds

With the seeding announced, we can now take a look at the current betting odds for the 2018 Men’s Wimbledon Grand Slam courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Roger Federer +185
  • Novak Djokovic +550
  • Rafael Nadal +550
  • Marin Cilic +600
  • Alexander Zverev +1400
  • Andy Murray +1400
  • Nick Kyrgios +1400
  • Milos Raonic +1800
  • Juan Martin Del Potro +2000
  • Kyle Edmund +2000
  • Borna Coric +3300
  • Dominic Thiem +3300
  • Grigor Dimitrov +3300
  • Denis Shapovalov +4000
  • Kevin Anderson +4000
  • Hyeon Chung +5000
  • Kei Nishikori +5000
  • Stan Wawrinka +5000
  • David Goffin +6600
  • John Isner +6600
  • Sam Querrey +6600

Men’s Wimbledon Favorites

Since 2003, only 4 men have won Wimbledon: Roger Federer (8), Novak Djokovic (3), Rafael Nadal (2), and Andy Murray (2). Of these tennis greats, only Federer and Nadal have a realistic shot at winning the 2018 Wimbledon open, despite what the odds say. As of this writing, Andy Murray might not even be in the tournament due to his health, Djokovic is still working his way back from injuries, and Tomas Berdych pulled out due to a back injury.

Roger Federer (+185)

Currently Federer is the #2 ranked men’s player in the world just behind Nadal. However, unlike Nadal, Federer chose to skip the clay season, which included the French Open, to focus on preparing for Wimbledon. So far, Federer is 25-3 this year and did win the Australian Open back in January. He did just lose in the finals of the Gerry Weber Open, but don’t put too much stock into this loss. Federer was fine tuning his game for Wimbledon.

When you think of this prestigious Grand Slam, Federer’s name has become synonymous with it. He holds the record for most wins here with 8 and is the odds-on favorite to get his 9th Wimbledon win. For his career, Roger Federer has 20 Grand Slam wins, which is the most in the history of men’s tennis. Federer is 8-3 all-time in Wimbledon finals. His 3 losses did come to Nadal in 2008 and Djokovic in 2014 and 2015.

Novak Djokovic (+550)

As great as it would be to see Novak Djokovic hold up the trophy, he’s still trying to get back to his top form after returning from an elbow injury. Currently, Djokovic is 17th in the world with an 18-9 record this year. I’m a bit surprised at how high he is on this list. I’m not sure if it’s a testament to his past success here or a lack of top grass players in men’s tennis. Coming into Wimbledon, Djokovic lost in the quarterfinals of the French Open to little known Marco Cecchinato and just lost to Marin Cilic in the finals of the Fever-Tree Championships. It was his first tournament final in a year.

As mentioned, Novak is a 3-time winner at Wimbledon and also has an additional runner-up under his belt for an impressive 3-1 record in the Wimbledon finals. Unfortunately, he hasn’t won this Grand Slam since 2015. He was bounced in the quarterfinals last year by Tomas Berdych and knocked out in the Round of 32 in 2016 by Sam Querrey. The big question for Novak this year is whether or not he’s fully healthy and back to his top form.

Rafael Nadal (+550)

After winning his 11th French Open Grand Slam title, Nadal comes into Wimbledon as the clear-cut #1 ranked men’s tennis player in the world. In addition to the French Open, Nadal has captured 3 other titles this year and has an overall record of 30-2 in 2018. Unfortunately, Nadal hasn’t had a great deal of success at Wimbledon.

The “King of Clay” is the greatest men’s player to step on a clay surface. However, only two of his 17 career Grand Slam titles have come at Wimbledon: 2008 and 2010. Overall, he’s 2-3 in Wimbledon finals and hasn’t been in the finals since 2011. Last year, Nadal lost in the Round of 16 to Gilles Muller. He was absent from Wimbledon in 2016, was bounced in the Round of 64 in 2015, lost in the Round of 16 in 2014, and was embarrassed in 2013 when he was upset in the opening round. For Nadal, it would be a victory if he could just get to the final 8 or final 4.

Marin Cilic (+600)

Cilic comes into Wimbledon having won the Fever-Tree Championships over Djokovic last week. He’s currently ranked #5 in the world and is 27-9 overall in 2018. Cilic has had some strong showings in the Grand Slams this year with a quarterfinals appearance in the French Open and a loss in the finals of the Australian Open to Roger Federer.

Cilic has played in 11 Wimbledon tournaments in his career and has an overall record of 27-10. Since 2014, he has three quarterfinals appearances and one finals appearance. That finals appearance came last year when he lost to Roger Federer. Cilic is becoming a sneaky pick by many pundits to pull off the upset in 2018.

Men’s Wimbledon Betting Value

Juan Martin Del Potro comes into Wimbledon as the #4 ranked men’s tennis player in the world. He’s captured two titles in 2018 and has an overall record of 28-7. Del Potro lost in the French Open semifinals to Nadal, which is nothing to be disappointed over. It was an improvement over his Australian Open performance where he was knocked out in the Round of 32.

For his career, Del Potro is 17-8 at Wimbledon with his best result coming in 2013 where he lost in a 5-set thriller to #1 ranked Djokovic in the semifinals. After that appearance, Del Potro was absent from Wimbledon until 2016. Last year, Del Potro was knocked out in the Round of 64.

Del Potro does have one Grand Slam title victory in his career and that came at the 2009 US Open. However, if the other top men’s players aren’t at the top of their game (Federer, Djokovic, and Murray) and Nadal continues to struggle at Wimbledon, then Del Potro and his +2000 odds provides great betting value.

Men’s Wimbledon Longshot

Outside of the Top 5 favorites, there really isn’t a men’s player that has a shot at winning this tournament. But, since we’re looking for a longshot here, I believe that Dominic Thiem and his +3300 odds fit the bill.

Thiem comes into this Grand Slam ranked #8 in the world with two titles and a record of 36-10 this year. He didn’t fare too well at the Gerry Weber Open where he lost in the Round of 16. Most likely, Thiem was just keeping his legs warm and getting a feel for the grass. Thiem did make it to the French Open final this year where he lost to Nadal, who he beat at the Madrid Open a month prior.

Thiem has played in 4 Wimbledon tournaments in his young career and has improved each year. Last year, Thiem made it to the quarterfinals before losing to Tomas Berdych. This tournament run improved his Wimbledon career record to 5-4. With a strong showing in 2018, and improvement each year at Wimbledon, Thiem could be the longshot that everyone is looking for.

2018 Women’s Wimbledon Odds

Now that the seeds have come out, so have the updated betting odds. The following is a list of the odds-on favorite to win the Women’s Wimbledon Grand Slam tournament courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Petra Kvitova +450
  • Serena Williams +500
  • Garbine Muguruza +700
  • Angelique Kerber +1000
  • Karolina Pliskova +1000
  • Simona Halep +1200
  • Madison Keys +1400
  • Maria Sharapova +1400
  • Sloane Stephens +1400
  • Caroline Wozniacki +1600
  • Ashleigh Barty +2000
  • Elina Svitolina +2000
  • Coco Vandeweghe +2500
  • Johanna Konta +2500
  • Naomi Osaka +2500
  • Venus Williams +2500
  • Victoria Azarenka +2500
  • Jelena Ostapenko +3300
  • Caroline Garcia +4000
  • Daria Kasatkina +4000

Women’s Wimbledon Favorites

When the tournament seeding was unveiled, there was a great amount of buzz over Serena Williams cracking the Top 32. Some critics felt she didn’t deserve it, while other pundits and fans were happy over this decision. Furthermore, Serena is still viewed as one of the favorites for this tournament despite still trying to get back to her top form. Unlike the men’s draw having Federer as the clear favorite, the women’s draw is wide open with a handful of competitors having a shot at winning this tournament.

Petra Kvitova +450

Despite being the 8th ranked women’s tennis player in the world, Petra Kvitova comes into this Grand Slam tournament as the odds on favorite to win Wimbledon. For the year, Kvitova has 5 titles and an overall record of 37-7. Kvitova has won the last 3 of 4 tournaments she’s been in. However, her success in Grand Slams this year hasn’t been anything to brag about. In the Australian Open, she was eliminated in the opening round and at the French Open she was bounced in the Round of 32.

The reason Kvitova is rated so high for Wimbledon is that she has won this tournament on two different occasions: 2011 and 2014. She has a 31-7 career record at Wimbledon and is 2-0 in her only two finals appearances. In fact, those are the only two finals appearances she has for any Grand Slam. Since her 2014 win, Kvitova hasn’t made it past the Round of 32. Personally, I don’t think she should be the favorite for this tournament.

Serena Williams +500

We’ve already discussed the buzz surrounding Serena coming into this tournament. She’s ranked 183rd in the world, hasn’t won a title in 2018, and is 5-2 this year. Serena had to pull out of the French Open with an injury after making it to the Round of 16. The greatest women’s tennis player of all-time hasn’t won a tournament since the 2017 Australian Open, which was her 23rd Grand Slam singles title. She also has 14 doubles and 2 mixed doubles to give her 39 total Grand Slam titles.

Coming into Wimbledon, we don’t know what Serena Williams we will get. However, we do know what Serena has done at this Grand Slam and that’s why oddsmakers have her as the second highest favorite to win this tournament. For her career, Serena is 7-2 in Wimbledon finals with her losses coming to Venus Williams in 2008 and Maria Sharapova in 2004. Serena didn’t play here last year due to her pregnancy but did win the 2015 and 2016 Wimbledon tournaments. I would hold off on betting on Serena until we see her form and health.

Garbine Muguruza +700

Muguruza is the #3 ranked women’s tennis player in the world and the reigning women’s Wimbledon champion. Despite being 3rd overall, Garbine hasn’t had a great 2018 to date. Currently, she’s only won one tournament and has an overall record of 21-11 this year. She did make it to the semifinals of the French Open this year, before being ousted by Halep. That’s an improvement over her Australian Open performance where she was bounced in the Round of 64.

In her career, Muguruza has two Grand Slam titles (French Open and Wimbledon) and one runner-up. In addition to winning Wimbledon last year, she also finished runner-up to Serena Williams in 2015, and has a career record of 16-5 at the All England Club. She has just as good of a shot at repeating as the champ as any of the other favorites do at winning.

Angelique Kerber +1000

Kerber comes into Wimbledon ranked #11 in the world with just 1 title and a record of 29-11 in 2018. She lost in the semifinals of the French Open and the Australian Open this year both to Halep. For her career, Kerber has a 2016 Australian Open title, a 2016 US Open title and a 2016 Olympic silver medal.

This will be Kerber’s 12th Wimbledon appearance and she’s looking to claim her 3rd overall Grand Slam title. Her best result came in 2016 when she lost in the finals to Serena Williams. Last year, she was beaten by Muguruza in the Round of 16. For her career, she has a 24-11 record at Wimbledon.

Kerber hasn’t made a finals appearance since her 2016 US Open victory, and I find it hard to think she will make it to the finals of Wimbledon this year.

Women’s Wimbledon Betting Value

To my surprise, the following two women’s tennis players were not even in the top 5 for odds-on favorite to win Wimbledon. With that said, I believe these two ladies provide the best value throughout the entire men’s and women’s tournament:

Simona Halep +1200

You are reading this correctly, the world’s #1 women’s tennis player is currently viewed as the 6th highest odds-on favorite to win Wimbledon. Yes, I was shocked too. Halep has been a force to be reckoned with in 2018 as she just won the French Open and has a 35-6 overall record this year. Additionally, she lost in the finals of the Australian Open and won the Shenzhen Open in China.

This will be her 9th appearance in Wimbledon as she’s posted a career record of 16-8. Her best result was a semifinals loss in 2014. Halep has two quarterfinals appearances over the last two years.

Halep has a career record of 1-3 in Grand Slam finals. However, she did go 1-1 this year after winning her first Grand Slam title at the French Open. With the way Halep has been playing in 2018, I believe she’s a strong candidate to make the Wimbledon finals this year.

Sloane Stephens +1400

Sloane Stephens was my longshot to win the French Open this year and she didn’t disappoint. The #4 ranked women’s tennis player made it all the way to the finals before losing to Halep. It was Stephens’ second Grand Slam final appearance and two out of the last three overall. As of now, Stephens is just 1-1 in Grand Slam finals having won the 2017 US Open.

Sloane started off 2018 playing very poorly including a first-round loss at the Australian Open. However, she has turned the year around, as evident by her French Open final appearance an overall record of 21-9.

This will be Sloane’s 8th appearance at Wimbledon, where she has a career record of 11-7. Sloane’s best finish was in 2013 where she lost in the quarterfinals. Last year, she was bounced in the opening round.

I believe Sloane has turned the corner and is playing some great tennis right now. With the women’s side wide open, this up-and-coming tennis star has a great shot at a career-best showing this year.

Women’s Wimbledon Longshot

You will be hard-pressed to find a more realistic longshot to win Wimbledon on either the men’s or women’s side than Venus Williams (+2500). Although she’s had a poor 2018 so far, 10-7 record overall, Venus is one of Wimbledon’s greatest women’s tennis players of all-time.

Williams has 9 Wimbledon finals appearance in her career and has gone 5-4. In addition to her 5 singles titles, she also has 6 doubles titles at Wimbledon. Last year, Venus made it to the finals before losing to Muguruza. In 2016, she made it to the semifinals before losing to Kerber. Does Venus have another magical run left in her 38-year old legs?

Who Will Win at Wimbledon?

So, this is what you have all been waiting for, and congratulations to all of you readers who made it this far. Here are my 2018 Wimbledon winners:

Men’s Winner – Roger Federer (+185)

With Djokovic still trying to get back to full strength, Andy Murray coming back from an injury and not even sure if he can play at Wimbledon, and Nadal struggling at Wimbledon over the last 5 years, this Grand Slam tournament is Federer’s to lose.

Like in 2017, Federer took off the clay season this year. So, he’s going to be fresh and ready to play at his favorite Grand Slam tournament. Additionally, he’s already won the 2018 Australian Open this year. So, the men’s all-time winner in Grand Slam titles is poised for a big run at Wimbledon starting next week.

The only player with any kind of chance to upset Federer would be Cilic and that’s because he’s already lost to Federer in two of the last four Grand Slam finals. Other than Cilic, Federer is going to cruise into the semifinals before he gets his first real challenge.

Women’s Winner – Simona Halep (+1200)

Because the women’s draw is so wide open, due to a less than 100% Serena Williams, I believe that there are a handful of tennis players with a shot at winning. With that said, none of those women are playing as consistently well as Simona Halep. She’s the #1 women’s tennis player for a reason and she finally broke her Grand Slam title drought. With the curse lifted, Simona could walk away with the Wimbledon title.

If Serena Williams has fully overcome her injury during the French Open, and she somehow returns to pre-pregnancy form, then she will steamroll over the competition. Unfortunately, that’s just too many “ifs.” I don’t believe Serena Will be back to her top form, but she could still make a solid run to the semifinals and knock off some of the odds-on favorites along the way.

As for now, Muguruza, Kvitova, and Kerber just aren’t playing as consistently well as Halep this year. And with a less than 100% Serena, Simona is in line to win her first Wimbledon crown.

Wimbledon Betting Recap

Here’s a quick recap of my Wimbledon bets:

Men’s Winner: Roger Federer (+185)

Women’s Winner: Simona Halep (+1200)

Best Betting Value:

  • Juan Martin del Potro (+2000)
  • Simona Halep (+1200)
  • Sloane Stephens (+1400)

Longshots: Dominic Thiem (+3300) and Venus Williams (+2500)

Rick Rockwell :