AAF Week 7 Betting Preview: Odds, Matchups and Predictions
With just four weeks left in the regular season, things are heating up. There’s no longer an undefeated team in the league as the Orlando Apollos finally lost on the season. With that said, playoff spots are still on the line and this week’s games have a lot riding on them.
Typically, an undefeated team losing is the biggest news of the week. However, that’s not the case for the Alliance of American Football. The biggest news heading into Week 7 is the signing of Johnny Manziel by the Memphis Express. Johnny Football will most likely start sooner than later, but the Express will need to run the table just to have any chance at making the playoffs.
AAF betting sites have listed the Apollos vs Legends game as the largest spread of the week. The rest of the games are a bit closer as they’re all spreads set between 3 to 5 points in addition to some intriguing lines on the Over/Unders. Let’s dive into these AAF betting odds to find any betting value and make some football picks.
AAF Updated Standings for Week 7
In the West, every team is still in the playoff hunt with 4 games left. The Commanders sit on top with a 4-2 record while the Fleet and Hotshots are tied for second place at 3-3. The Stallions are 2-4, which is only one game out of the hunt.
The Eastern conference has more disparity as the Orlando Apollos are in first place at 5-1, followed by the Iron at 4-2. The Legends are 2-4 and the Express have the worst record in the league at 1-5.
Orlando Apollos vs Atlanta Legends
The AAF’s top team Orlando is heading up the highway to Georgia to take on the scrappy Atlanta Legends. The Apollos are coming off their first loss of the season while the Legends are looking to get a big win and keep their playoff hopes alive. Kickoff inside Georgia State Stadium is at 2 PM ET and will be televised on TNT.
|Orlando Apollos||-8.5 (-110)||Over 42 (-110)|
|Atlanta Legends||+8.5 (-110)||Under 42 (-110)|
The Apollos (5-1) were shell shocked after losing at Arizona last weekend. It was a surprise to pundits and fans because Orlando was clearly the best team in the league and Arizona had lost three straight. Well, that’s why they play the games because Orlando came out flat in the first half and couldn’t score enough points in the second half to come from behind and win the game. This weekend, Orlando will have a better chance to get back on track and put up the numbers we’re accustomed to. 17 points last weekend isn’t typical Apollos football.
Atlanta (2-4) was blown out last weekend 37 to 6 by the San Antonio Commanders. It was the second time they’ve lost by over 30 points in a game this season. Furthermore, it snapped their two-game winning streak and knocked them two games back of the second playoff spot in the East. The Legends are in trouble this weekend as they go up against an offense that’s still ranked the tops in the AAF.
Apollos vs Legends Betting Preview: Orlando Apollos -8.5
The Commanders didn’t accumulate a lot of yards last weekend against the Legends, they just took advantage of their scoring opportunities. For example, San Antonio only had 81 rushing yards. Well, the Apollos are a much better offense and can accumulate both the points and the yards. In fact, their rushing attack averages 133 rushing yards per game. They’re also led by the league’s top QB in Garrett Gilbert.
QB Garrett Gilbert's overall grade slipped a bit after Week 6, but he continues to take the top spot as the highest-graded QB in the AAF this season! pic.twitter.com/GuqXPkcdPI
— PFF_AAF (@PFF_AAF) March 21, 2019
I don’t see the Legends being able to slow down this Apollos offense and I definitely don’t see Atlanta being able to score much more than their season average of 12.2 ppg. The Legends are in big trouble and they could end up falling to the bottom of the conference with a loss this weekend.
For this bet, take the Orlando spread of -8.5 as they’re going to blow out the Legends on Saturday. Not only are they angry over losing last weekend, but they’re a better football team on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. I believe Orlando will win by at least 16 points. Don’t forget, the Apollos defeated the Legends in Week 1 by a score of 40 to 6. I don’t see it being that bad this week, but it will be close.
Salt Lake Stallions vs San Antonio Commanders
The Salt Lake Stallions notched their second win of the season and look to try for a two game winning streak as they head out on the road this Saturday evening. Standing in their way is San Antonio who’s coming off their biggest blowout victory of the season and sits on top of the Western Conference. Which team will improve their playoff chances this weekend? Kickoff inside the Alamodome is at 8 PM ET and will be televised on NFL Network.
|Salt Lake Stallions||+5 (-110)||Over 40.5 (-110)|
|San Antonio Commanders||-5 (-110)||Under 40.5 (-110)|
The Stallions (2-4) physically beat up Memphis last weekend and showed that they still have life left within them. Unfortunately, they will need to go out on the road this weekend where they are winless on the season. Salt Lake has a smash mouth type offense and defense where they like to run the ball and stop the run. However, they will face a team that’s a step up in competition and it will be on the road against the conference’s first-place squad.
San Antonio (4-2) is really coming on strong at the mid-point of the season as they’ve won two games in a row. With 4 games left, the Commanders are looking like a solid playoff team that could end up securing one of the two playoff spots in the West. To accomplish that, they will need to win this weekend at home and do so with their offense that’s on fire as of late. Not only do they have a good offense, but they also have a good defense and a solid special teams.
Longest punt return in the
— San Antonio Commanders (@aafcommanders) March 19, 2019
Stallions vs Commanders Betting Preview: Over 40.5 points
The Stallions, affectionately dubbed “Sack Lake,” will need to get plenty of sacks this weekend in order to slow down this San Antonio offense. The team averages 22.2 ppg, but they’ve scored 33 ppg over the last two weeks. Now, they will be at home where they’re 1-1 on the season. However, their only home loss was to Orlando in Week 2.
The Commanders put up 127 rushing yards per game and QB Logan Woodside is really getting hot right now. The combination of a QB on fire and a strong running game equals bad news for Stallions fans. As much as I appreciate a physical team, I just don’t see Salt Lake winning this weekend.
For this game, take the Over at 40.5 total points. These two teams combine to score 40.9 ppg on the season. However, in the last two weeks, these two teams combined for 57 ppg and I can see it being another high scoring game with San Antonio winning at home.
San Diego Fleet vs Arizona Hotshots
The Fleet and Hotshots will battle it out on Sunday to determine which team holds on to one of the playoff spots in the West. The Fleet had a tough loss last weekend while the Hotshots had one of the biggest wins in the league this year. Kickoff inside Sun Devil Stadium is at 4 PM ET and will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.
|San Diego Fleet||+3.5 (-110)||Over 39.5 (-110)|
|Arizona Hotshots||-3.5 (-110)||Under 39.5 (-110)|
San Diego (3-3) is coming off a tough home loss to the Iron last weekend. The Fleet put up 29 points but still fell short as they lost 32 to 29. It was a surprising result considering Birmingham has a low scoring team. For the Fleet, they need to shake off last week’s game and turn their focus to this weekend where they can win and remain on the right side of the playoff cutoff line. This is the first encounter between these two football teams this year.
Arizona Hotshots (3-3) upset the Orlando Apollos last weekend on the road and now they will return home to host the Fleet. Arizona shocked the AAF world by defeating the best team in the league, but questions over their erratic play still exist. Will the Hotshots put together another 2-game winning streak or will they lose their 4th game of the season?
Fleet vs Hotshots Betting Preview: Over 39.5 points
I must say that I’m surprised at the point total line for this game. AAF betting sites have the Over/Under set at 39.5 total points. Personally, I feel that’s pretty low for two teams that combine to score 45.1 ppg on the year. Furthermore, these two teams combined to score 51 points in Week 6 and 52 total points in Week 5. Now, they will face each other in Arizona where the weather is expected to be favorable.
Despite both teams going 1-1 over the last two weeks, Arizona has averaged 23.5 ppg and San Diego has averaged 28 ppg. I expect these scoring trends to continue this weekend. Both teams can move the ball on offense, so I don’t see this being a defensive battle. If anything, the team that has the ball last will end up winning the game.
Look for Arizona to continue their trend upwards and for the Fleet to fall below .500 on the season as the Hotshots take this game at home.
Birmingham Iron vs Memphis Express
In the final game of the weekend, the Iron return to Memphis in a rematch from Week 1 when Birmingham won 26-0. The Iron is coming off a big road win last weekend in California while the Express lost another tough road game. Memphis’ playoff chances are on life support as they desperately need a win on Sunday. Kickoff inside Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium is at 8 PM ET and will be televised on NFL Network.
|Birmingham Iron||-3 (-110)||Over 37 (-105)|
|Memphis Express||+3 (-110)||Under 37 (-115)|
Birmingham (4-2) got back on the winning track after dropping two straight games. They traveled to the west coast and beat San Diego in a thrilling contest. Now, they will return back east to take on the Memphis Express who they dominated in Week 1 by a score of 26-0. The Iron Curtain gave up 29 points last weekend, but Memphis doesn’t score a lot of points per game. So, I expect this defense to play a huge role this weekend.
Memphis (1-5) probably would’ve won last weekend if it weren’t for a few mistakes and a few key injuries. They played well enough to beat Atlanta but fell short by a score of 23-20. The big news this week is the signing of Johnny Manziel. Fans and critics will be watching to see if Manziel can help this team in any way. With no more room for error, Memphis needs a win badly.
Iron vs Express Betting Preview: Birmingham Iron -3
In the preseason, I was all on board the Memphis Express. I’m a big Mike Singletary fan and I thought they had enough talent to be one of the best in the league. Well, it turns out I was wrong for believing in them and the team was wrong for going after Hackenberg as QB. So, until they win again, I can’t pick them to get the victory.
Furthermore, I haven’t seen Memphis play well against good defenses and that’s exactly was Birmingham has. In fact, Birmingham still has one of the best, if not the best, defenses in the league despite giving up more points over the last two weeks than the first four weeks combined (61 to 33).
Whether Manziel plays or not, I don’t believe he has enough magic to pull off a miracle this season, let alone this weekend. Birmingham is a better football team and it will show on Sunday.
Take the Iron to win by more than 3 points because of their top-notch defense beating up on the poor Memphis offense once again this year.
AAF Week 7 Betting Predictions
- Orlando Apollos 30 – Atlanta Legends 10 (Orlando -8.5)
- San Antonio Commanders 28 – Salt Lake Stallions 24 (Over 40.5)
- Arizona Hotshots 27 – San Diego Fleet 25 (Over 39.5)
- Birmingham Iron 20 – Memphis Express 14 (Birmingham -3)