We are already into December, which means it’s almost time to put a bow on 2018 and start looking ahead to 2019. Of course, plenty of what we will do in 2019 is talk about things that happened in 2018. Awards season will officially kick off next month with the Golden Globes, which are set to take place on Sunday, January 6. After that, we’ll have the Grammys and Academy Awards to look forward to.
First thing’s first, though. The full list of nominees for the 2019 Golden Globes was officially unveiled last week, and there is no shortage of quality contenders for some of the night’s bigger prizes. The Golden Globes are often a precursor for what we can expect at the Oscars, so it’s always interesting to see which winners emerge at the Globes.
Of course, awards season also presents plenty of betting opportunities. There are already a number of Globe-related prop bets posted over at MyBookie. Let’s parse through some of the more noteworthy candidates and try to identify some good betting value.
Best Supporting Actress
- Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) -110
- Amy Adams (Vice) +150
- Emma Stone (The Favourite) +900
- Claire Foy (First Man) +1000
- Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) +1200
The field for Best Supporting Actress is quite decorated. The 5 candidates this year have combined to win a total of 5 Golden Globes in the past, with Regina King, the current odds-on favorite, being the only woman without a previous win.
This is King’s third Golden Globe nomination. She was also a nominee for Best Supporting Actress in a Series for her work in American Crime, and she’s up for another one this year for Best Actress in a Mini-series for Seven Seconds.
If King manages to win both awards for which she’s nominated, she would become the fifth performer to do so at the Globes. Amy Adams (Vice, Sharp Objects) is also up for 2 awards on the night
King was nominated for her portrayal of the mother of a woman (played by Kiki Layne) who is facing a race against time to prove the innocence of her lover and father of their soon-to-be child.
Adams, who is just behind King at +150 to win, drew the nomination for her portrayal of Lynne Cheney, the wife of former vice president Dick Cheney, in the upcoming film Vice. Vice, which has already drawn plenty of critical acclaim, will hit theaters on Christmas Day.
King and Adams are clearly ahead of the field here, with Emma Stone, Claire Foy and Rachel Weisz checking in at +900, +1000 and +1200, respectively. Stone and Weisz were both nominated after working together on the British 18th century drama, The Favourite.
Foy gets the nod for her work in First Man, the Neil Armstrong film starring Ryan Gosling about man’s quest to the moon.
King is the favorite, but I like Adams here at +150. There isn’t much value in betting on King at -110, so why not take a stab at another perfectly viable candidate with more profitable betting value? I like Adams at +150.
Best Supporting Actor
- Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) -110
- Mahershala Ali (Green Book) +120
- Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +800
- Sam Rockwell (Vice) +1400
- Adam Driver (Blackkklansman) +2500
The Best Supporting Actor category also features a slew of household names as nominees. The odds-on favorite as of now is Timothee Chalamet, an actor who has already drawn tons of acclaim despite the fact that he’ll turn just 23 later this month.
The New York City native has already been nominated for Academy Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards in the past. He was a Best Actor nominee last year for his work in Call Me By Your Name, but the award was instead won by Gary Oldman.
Chalamet was nominated for his portrayal of a drug-addicted teenager in Beautiful Boy, which is based on memoirs written by a father whose son struggled with drugs. Steve Carell stars as Chalamet’s father in the film, which got decent reviews overall.
Mahershala Ali, who won the Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars a couple of years ago for Moonlight is the second-favorite here at +120.
Ali stars alongside Viggo Mortensen in, Green Book, which is a story of an African-American jazz pianist striking up a friendship with an Italian-American bouncer in the Deep South back in the ‘60s.
As is the case with Best Supporting Actress, the odds dip considerably after the top 2. Richard E. Grant (+800), Sam Rockwell (+1400) and Adam Driver (+2500) can all safely be considered long shots. Rockwell could be something of a dark horse for his portrayal of former president George W. Bush in Vice, but for now I’ll stick with one of the 2 favorites.
It’s simple. If you want the “safe” play, roll with Timothee Chalamet at -110. If you want a little more risk with added profit potential, bet on Mahershala Ali at +120. I’d slightly lean toward Ali here.
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
- Olivia Colman (The Favourite) -200
- Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns) +300
- Charlize Theron (Tully) +900
- Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians) +900
- Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) +1300
Olivia Colman is the early betting favorite to take home Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy thanks to her work in the aforementioned film, The Favourite. That brings the total of actresses nominated from this film to 3, which is an achievement in its own right.
Emily Blunt figures to gain plenty of momentum here as her version of Mary Poppins is set to hit theaters.
Elsie Fisher, the biggest long shot on the board here at +1300, is one of the youngest ever nominees at just 15 years of age. The Washington Post wrote that Blunt and Charlize Theron “brought their respective films to life,” which certainly sounds like a ringing endorsement.
Theron isn’t expected to win, but I will note that the value on her at +900 here is pretty appealing from a betting perspective.
I prefer Theron to Constance Wu at the same price. Colman may be the safest option of them all, but once again I feel drawn to the nominee with the second-best odds here. That would be Emily Blunt at +300. Mary Poppins is an iconic character, which is something the voters will surely take into account. The price is favorable, as well.
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
- Christian Bale (Vice) +100
- Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) +120
- Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) +600
- John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie) +1800
- Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns) +2500
Hey look, it’s Vice again. Christian Bale is borderline unrecognizable as former vice president Dick Cheney in a film that has already gotten rave reviews despite the fact that it hasn’t even been released to the public yet.
Bale is one of the finest actors of his generation, and he shows his versatility here by playing the older, heavier Cheney. It’s a bit similar to Gary Oldman’s award-winning portrayal of Winston Churchill that won him the Best Actor Oscar this past year.
Mortensen and Bale are essentially neck and neck here, so both options are viable bets. Like Bale, Mortensen also packed on the pounds, 45 of them, in fact, to portray bouncer-turned-chauffeur Tony Lip in Green Book. Mortensen even engages in a fake hot dog eating contest in the film. He says filming the movie in New Orleans helped him put on the weight. Those po-boys can get you.
It looks like a 2-man race at this point. Robert Redford will get some votes in his retiring role, but he’s a pretty big long shot to dethrone either Bale or Mortensen here at +600. Reilly and Miranda are great, but the field is too strong this year.
I slightly lean Bale, but I wouldn’t talk you out of betting Mortensen. Both are strong options at +100 and +120, respectively.
Best Actress – Drama
- Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) -200
- Glenn Close (The Wife) +220
- Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) +1100
- Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) +1200
- Rosamund Pike (A Private War) +1800
A Star is Born is one of the more popular films of the year, and you can be sure we’re going to hear plenty about it once we get closer and closer to awards season. In fact, this film has the betting favorites for Best Actress (Lady Gaga), Best Actor (Bradley Cooper), Best Director (Cooper) and Best Motion Picture.
Obviously, how the film fares at the Globes will give is a sneak peek into how well it may do at the Oscars about a month later. Lady Gaga certainly isn’t known for her acting, but she puts on a stellar performance as Ally, a waitress-turned-singer/songwriter.
While she may be more known for her musical career, this is actually her second Golden Globe nomination. She won a Globe back in 2016 for her performance in American Horror Story. She’s got some acting chops, to be sure.
Given the quality of the other actresses on the list, winning this award would be quite the accomplishment. Pike was nominated in this category back in 2014 for Gone Girl. Nicole Kidman has won 4 Golden Globes, Glenn Close has won 2 and and Melissa McCarthy has earned 2 nominations.
It’s hard not to like Lady Gaga here. The odds are pretty heavily in her favor, so I’d just eat the chalk here at -200.
Best Actor – Drama
- Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) -450
- Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) +250
- Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) +1200
- Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) +1600
- John David Washington (Blackkklansman) +2500
Once again, A Star is Born looks like it’s going to steal the show. Bradley Cooper is an even bigger favorite than Lady Gaga here at -450 to take home the prize for Best Actor in a Drama.
This is one of 3 nominations on the night for Cooper after he was nominated but didn’t win twice in the past.
Rami Malek put on an incredible performance as Freddy Mercury in the Queen biopic, Bohemian Rhapsody. In any other year, that kind of performance would be more than strong enough to win this category. It just so happens that he may have chosen the wrong year to take on the iconic role. Still, I don’t hate it at +250. Can A Star is Born really win every major category?
The other 3, Willem Dafoe, Lucas Hedges and John David Washington, are all big long shots. I don’t feel confident in any of them. I think Cooper wins this, while Malek is a more than passable flier at +250.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
- The Favourite +150
- Green Book +150
- Vice +220
- Mary Poppins Returns +1600
- Crazy Rich Asians +1800
Here we have quite the hotly-contested category, with 3 films at +220 or better to win. The Favourite is the current favorite, tied with Green Book. Vice isn’t far behind, while Mary Poppins Returns and Crazy Rich Asians round out the field.
Crazy Rich Asians got a ton of buzz when it was released earlier this year, but you have to wonder whether its early release may hurt its chances with the other movies being fresher in the memories of voters.
Vice has the feel of a film that is going to make waves once its released, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it managed to carry a bit of momentum into awards season. I think you can do far worse than taking a stab at the Cheney film being the winning option here at +220. This category is essentially a toss-up, so any of the top 3 are viable bets.
I’ll side with Vice, but you can’t go wrong with Green Book or The Favourite, either.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
- A Star is Born -450
- If Beale Street Could Talk +450
- Blackkklansman +1000
- Black Panther +1200
- Bohemian Rhapsody
While Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy looks like it could go any of 3 different ways, the Drama category looks more straight forward.
While Black Panther was arguably the biggest smash-hit of the entire year, the superhero genre still has a long way to go before being a viable threat for awards like this, unfortunately. If Beale Street Could Talk is gaining buzz as an under-the-radar contender, but this looks like A Star is Born’s to lose.
Just roll with the heavy favorite here.