O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Betting Guide, Odds and Predictions

By in Sports & Betting on

On Sunday, March 31st, NASCAR will be live from the Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX, for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. It’s the 7th race of the regular season and the first of two annual TMS races. 4 drivers have won the first six races and, to make it even more apparent, only two teams have won this year so far: Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske. With the new aero package in place, many NASCAR officials think this weekend’s racing in Texas will be more exciting and competitive. Will that translate into a new winner?

NASCAR betting sites once again view Kyle Busch as the man to beat. Followed by Keselowski and Logano, who both have wins on the season as well. For only the second time this season, NASCAR’s Big 3 are among the betting favorites to win in Texas.

Race Profile

The Texas Motor Speedway (TMS) is a quad-oval track with a distance of 1.5 (1.44) miles long. It’s very similar to what we see at the tracks in Atlanta and Charlotte. The TMS opened in 1996 and the first NASCAR race held there was in 1997.

  • Total Miles: 501
  • Total Laps: 334
  • Stage 1: First 85 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 85 laps
  • Final Stage: Remaining 164 laps

The race will begin at 3 PM ET and is televised on FOX.

What to Watch For at Texas

Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing have won all 6 of the races this season so far. Will they continue their dominance or will another team crack the win column? Other storylines to watch this Sunday are:

  • Can Kevin Harvick win his first race of 2019?
  • Will Martin Truex Jr. dominate at the 1.5-mile track?
  • Will we have a repeat winner at Texas?
  • Can Kyle Larson challenge the favorites at TMS?

Previous O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Winners

The first race was run in April 1997 and won by Jeff Burton. Kyle Busch leads all drivers with 3 wins in this race. So, it should come as no surprise that Kyle is the defending champ as he won in 2018. 4 other drivers are tied with two wins apiece, but only Jimmie Johnson is still active among that group. Furthermore, Johnson holds the record for the most overall wins at TMS with 7. The following is a list of the previous O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 winners:

  • Jeff Burton in 1997, 2007
  • Mark Martin in 1998
  • Terry Labonte in 1999
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2000
  • Dale Jarrett in 2001
  • Matt Kenseth in 2002, 2011
  • Ryan Newman in 2003
  • Elliott Sadler in 2004
  • Greg Biffle in 2005, 2012
  • Kasey Kahne in 2006
  • Carl Edwards in 2008
  • Jeff Gordon in 2009
  • Denny Hamlin in 2010
  • Kyle Busch in 2013, 2016, 2018
  • Joey Logano in 2014
  • Jimmie Johnson in 2015, 2017

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Odds

The following list of NASCAR betting odds is courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Kyle Busch +250
  • Brad Keselowski +350
  • Joey Logano +600
  • Kevin Harvick +600
  • Martin Truex Jr +800
  • Kyle Larson +1000
  • Ryan Blaney +1000
  • Chase Elliott +2200
  • Aric Almirola +2500
  • Denny Hamlin +2500
  • Clint Bowyer +2800
  • Kurt Busch +2800
  • Erik Jones +4000
  • Austin Dillon +6600
  • Jimmie Johnson +6600
  • Daniel Suarez +8000
  • Ricky Stenhouse +8000
  • Alex Bowman +10000

The Betting Favorites for Texas

According to the NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are odds on favorites to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 on Sunday:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kyle Busch 3 12 13 14.3 11.8 0
Brad Keselowski 0 5 8 15.7 15.8 1
Joey Logano 1 9 11 13.2 14.3 1
Kevin Harvick 2 10 20 15.9 10.8 1
Martin Truex Jr. 0 4 15 14.4 13.9 4

Kyle Busch (+250)

If there was any doubt about Kyle Busch being the best driver in NASCAR, he has put those doubts to rest after a strong start to 2019. Busch sits on top of the driver standings with 2 wins on the season and 21 points ahead of 2nd place. Furthermore, he’s finished in the Top 10 for all 6 races so far. Even better, he’s finished in the Top 6 for every race this season. Busch’s worst finish was 6th in Atlanta. Last weekend, Kyle finished 3rd at Martinsville after winning two weeks in a row. He’s the favorite this Sunday and rightfully so.

As mentioned, Kyle has won this race three times. In 26 career starts at Texas, he’s racked up 12 Top 5’s and 13 Top 10’s. He has an average finish of 11.8, which is among the best. Kyle won this race last year after finishing 15th in 2017. Prior to that, he went on an impressive tear where he finished in the Top 5 for 7 of 8 TMS races.

With Busch driving strong in 2019, and having a lot of success at this track, will anyone be able to beat him on Sunday?

Brad Keselowski (+350)

Along with Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski has also won 2 races this season. However, he currently sits in 5th position in the driver standings largely due to his 12th place at Daytona and 19th place at Phoenix. Other than that, Brad has two wins, a 2nd place, and a 3rd place. Last weekend, Keselowski dominated at Martinsville as he led 446 laps and earned 5 playoff points. Only Kyle Busch has more playoff points than Brad does so far.

At TMS, Keselowski has never won in 21 tries. He also has 5 Top 5’s and 8 Top 10’s. These numbers aren’t impressive at all. In fact, of the betting favorites, Keselowski has the lowest amount of success at this track compared to the others. Last year, Brad finished 33rd after crashing. Prior to that, he had a 6th place finish in this race. Keselowski did lead 50 laps in the fall Texas race last year, but will that translate into success this weekend?

I have a hard time putting my money and confidence in Keselowski to win this weekend.

Joey Logano (+600)

Logano currently sits 4th in the driver standings after a disappointing week at Martinsville last Sunday. Logano started on the pole, but finished 19th and only led 5 laps. He fell two spots in the driver standings. Logano is either finishing in the Top 4 or he’s finishing outside the Top 10. He’s alternated between great finishes and average finishes. Joey won at Las Vegas this year and actually has 1 win at TMS in his career.

In 21 starts at the Texas Motor Speedway, Logano also has 9 Top 5’s and 11 Top 10’s along with a 14.3 average finish. However, Logano has had an impressive run at Texas over the last few years. In the last 6 Texas races, Logano has finished 7th or better in every race. Going back to 2013’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race, Logano has 10 Top 7 finishes in 12 races.

I believe Logano is going to be a contender for the checkered flag by the time it’s all said and done. I certainly like his chances this weekend more than Keselowski’s, but not as much as Kyle Busch.

Kevin Harvick (+600)

Kevin Harvick is tied with Kurt Busch for the most starts at Texas. Both of them have already raced here 32 times. During that span, Harvick has won 2 races, has 10 Top 5’s and 20 Top 10’s, an average finish of 10.8, and has dominated TMS in the last few years.

Harvick has won the last two fall races at TMS. Additionally, he has 8 Top 6 finishes in the last 9 races. The other finish during that span was 10th overall. In the last 4 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 races, Harvick has an average finish of 4.5. He finished 2nd in this race last year.

On the season, Harvick sits in 3rd place in the driver standings. Since crashing out of the Daytona 500, Harvick has finished inside the Top 9 in 5 straight races. Last weekend, Harvick came in 6th place but remained 3rd in the standings. Kevin has more stage wins in 1.5-mile tracks than all other drivers and he’s definitely poised for a big run at TMS this Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr (+800)

The third member of NASCAR’s “Big 3” has been quiet in 2019 so far. The 2017 champion currently sits 7th in the driver standings and hasn’t won a race yet. Furthermore, he also crashed out of Daytona but has gone on to finish in the Top 8 for 5 straight races. Last weekend, Truex finished 8th for the second week in a row. He’s only been a legitimate threat in two races: Atlanta and Phoenix. Martin finished 2nd in both of those races.

Unfortunately, Truex hasn’t won at Texas in his 27 career starts. And, I don’t see him winning this Sunday either. I do see Martin being a Top 10 car and threatening to finish in the Top 5. For his career, Martin has 4 Top 5’s and 15 Top 10’s. His 13.9 average finish is also among the best for betting favorites.

With that said, Truex runs strong at 1.5-mile tracks, but the TMS hasn’t been kind to Martin getting into the winner’s circle. Like Keselowski, I don’t see Martin winning this weekend or being much of a factor.

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Best Betting Value

The following drivers offer great betting value this weekend based on their current NASCAR betting odds, past success at TMS, and the way they’ve been running so far this season:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Chase Elliott 0 2 5 19.7 7.2 0
Denny Hamlin 2 6 12 14.4 13.7 1
Kurt Busch 1 3 19 13.5 14.6 2

Chase Elliott (+2200)

Of all the active drivers, Chase Elliott has the best average finish of 7.2 at TMS. Unfortunately, Elliott has had an inconsistent 2019 so far. Prior to last weekend’s 2nd place finish, Elliott’s best showing was 9th at Las Vegas. Additionally, he didn’t lead any laps until last weekend when he led 49. Elliott’s performance at Martinsville last Sunday boosted him 3 spots in the standings from 12th to 9th overall.

I believe Elliott offers great betting value due to his 5 Top 10 finishes in 6 races at TMS. His worst running was 11th in this race last year. With Elliott turning his season around at Martinsville last weekend, I expect his momentum to continue this weekend. Elliott will definitely have a fringe Top 5 car on Sunday and he could flirt with a checkered flag if things go his way in the final laps.

Denny Hamlin (+2500)

I was a bit surprised to see Hamlin at these large of betting odds considering how well he’s run in 2019 so far. Hamlin currently sits 2nd in the driver standings and jumped up 2 spots last weekend after finishing 5th at Martinsville. Hamlin started off 2019 strong by winning the Daytona 500. He then had a 10th and 11th place finish before tallying 3 straight Top 7 results.

At Texas, Hamlin is tied for the 3rd most wins with 2. He’s also a former winner of this race having won it back in 2010. In 26 starts at TMS, Denny has 6 Top 5’s and 12 Top 10’s. His 13.7 average finish is also among the best.

The biggest reason why Hamlin is listed at +2500 odds is because he’s finished 25th or worse in 3 of the last 4 Texas races. With that said, Hamlin is running well this weekend and I can see him having a Top 10 car at the very least. A few crashes or lucky breaks in the final laps could produce a great result for Hamlin.

Kurt Busch (+2800)

After 4 straight Top 7 finishes, Kurt Busch took a step back by finishing 12th at Martinsville last Sunday. Furthermore, it dropped Busch to 10th in the standings. Kurt has been a weekly fixture for betting value and for the most part he’s given us chances to hit. This weekend is no different.

In 32 starts, Kurt has 1 win, 3 Top 5’s, 19 Top 10’s, and 2 DNFs. Over the last 9 Texas races, Kurt has 7 Top 10s and started on the pole 3 times. I believe Kurt will bounce back this weekend with at least a Top 10 car. Like Hamlin above, a few lucky breaks in the final laps could result in Busch waiving that checkered flag.

The Longshot to win at Texas Motor Speedway

For most of the season, I’ve put Jimmie Johnson in my betting value section. But, after a few poor showings over the last several races, NASCAR betting sites have dropped JJ in the betting odds down to +6600. JJ only has 2 top 10 showings this year and currently sits 15th in the standings. After Daytona, many pundits and fans thought that Johnson was back. Unfortunately, he’s just averaging 16.8 finish on the year and had his worst showing of 2019 last weekend with a 24th place finish at Martinsville. But, that could all change this weekend.

Let’s just call Johnson “Mr. Texas.” He holds the records for most wins (7), most Top 5’s (15), most Top 10’s (21), most laps led (1,052) and he has the 2nd best average finish among active drivers at 9.8, which is also the same average starting position for JJ at TMS.

Nobody even comes close to what Johnson has done at Texas. It’s what makes him an excellent choice for the betting longshot. From the 2012 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 until 2017’s running, Johnson won 6 of 11 races and had 9 Top 10’s.

JJ needs a strong running this weekend, and I think he’s going to get it. Watch out for the #48 as he could turn some heads on Sunday.

NASCAR Prop Bet: Driver Matchups at TMS

The following NASCAR prop bet requires you to pick the winning driver out of the head-to-head battles at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday. Driver matchups and betting odds are courtesy of 5Dimes.

Joey Logano (+105) vs Brad Keselowski (-135)

Driver Joey Logano Brad Keselowski
Wins 1 0
Top 5 9 5
Top 10 11 8
Avg Start 13.2 15.7
Avg Finish 14.3 15.8
DNF 1 1
Total Races 21 21

This is going to be a tough battle on Sunday, but I think Logano will come out the winner. Joey has more wins, Top 5’s, Top 10’s, and a better average finish than Keselowski does. Not to mention, Logano has had 6 straight Top 7 finishes where Keselowski only has 2 Top 7 finishes during that span.
I believe Logano is the better driver at this track despite Keselowski being the betting favorite and having more wins this year. However, Logano is 4th in the standings and Brad is 5th.
With that said, I expect Joey to have a Top 5 car while Keselowski will finish in the 6 to 10 range. I can see Logano threatening for the checkered flag, but Keselowski won’t be much of a contender when it’s all said and done.
For this head-to-head matchup, I’m taking the underdog in Joey Logano.

Winner: Joey Logano (+105)

Ryan Blaney (-165) vs Denny Hamlin (+135)

Driver Ryan Blaney Denny Hamlin
Wins 0 2
Top 5 2 6
Top 10 3 12
Avg Start 8.5 14.4
Avg Finish 18.9 13.7
DNF 2 1
Total Races 8 26

I haven’t talked much about Ryan Blaney this weekend, but NASCAR oddsmakers feel that he’s a strong contender for a top finish and to beat Denny Hamlin in a head-to-head matchup. Blaney is a big betting favorite, but he doesn’t have the success to really back this up. Especially, when compared to Hamlin.

As mentioned above, Denny Hamlin has had a few tough runs at TMS last year. But, he is a two time winner at this track and he’s running better than Blaney is this season. Currently, Hamlin is 2nd and Blaney is 8th overall in the standings. Blaney has had 3 Top 5’s and 3 Top 10’s on the year, while Hamlin won in Daytona, has the same number of Top 5’s, and has 5 Top 10 finishes.

Not only do I like how Hamlin is running this year compared to Blaney’s under the radar steady racing, but I also like how well Hamlin has fared at Texas Motor Speedway compared to Blaney. Ryan may have a strong average starting spot of 8.5, but his 18.9 average finish is 5 spots lower than Hamlin. I expect Blaney to have a Top 10 car, but I think Hamlin will have a Top 5 car this Sunday. With that said, this will be another tough matchup, but one that can pay out well for those who bet on Hamlin to win.

Winner: Denny Hamlin (+135)

Chase Elliot (-115) vs Aric Almirola (-115)

Driver Chase Elliott Aric Almirol
Wins 0 0
Top 5 2 0
Top 10 5 2
Avg Start 19.7 18.9
Avg Finish 7.2 19.8
DNF 0 1
Total Races 6 16

Oddsmakers view this driver matchup as an even one. However, I do not. I believe Chase Elliott is a better driver at TMS than Almirola. For their careers, Elliott has performed better than Almirola at TMS in every category and he has done this with 10 less races. Almirola’s best finish was 8th last year in the fall race. Elliott finished 6th in that race. Chase has 2 Top 5’s and Almirola has none.

On the season, Almirola has 5 Top 10’s in 6 races while Elliott only has two. Almirola also sits 3 spots higher in the standings at 6th place and Elliott is in 9th place. Almirola has definitely run better in 2019 than Elliott, but Chase finished 2nd last weekend at Martinsville and his 7.2 average finish at TMS is the best among all active drivers.

I expect Chase to snag a Top 5 spot and Almirola to finish outside of the Top 10 this weekend. It will mark a second straight strong running for Elliott, while Almirola will have an uneventful day. For this bet, I’m taking Chase Elliott to win easily.

Winner: Chase Elliott (-115)

Who Will Take The Checkered Flag at TMS?

Kyle Busch is the man to beat this weekend. It’s clear that he’s the top driver right now. But, rather than pick him every week, I’m going to take another driver instead. First, I believe Busch will contend for the checkered flag and is the safe bet this Sunday. However, I am taking Kevin Harvick to win. Kevin has also raced well at Texas and he’s due for a win this season. Harvick has run strong, but has failed to get into victory circle in 2019. Well, that’s going to change this Sunday as I believe Kevin will snag the checkered flag from Kyle’s grip at TMS.

Along with Kyle and Kevin, I expect Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin to all finish in the Top 5. I don’t see Brad Keselowski or Martin Truex Jr. winning or even cracking the Top 5 despite what NASCAR betting sites say. But, those two will finish in the Top 10 along with Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, and Jimmie Johnson.

If you want to play it safe then go with Kyle Busch to win on Sunday. But, if you want to be a little riskier then take Kevin Harvick to win. And, if you really want to be a daredevil then go with Johnson to pull off the shocker of the season so far.

My Top 5 Drivers

In no particular order:

  • Kyle Busch
  • Joey Logano
  • Kevin Harvick
  • Chase Elliott
  • Denny Hamlin

O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Recap

Winner:

  • Kyle Busch (+225)

Betting Value:

  • Chase Elliott (+2200)
  • Denny Hamlin (+2500)
  • Kurt Busch (+2800)

Longshot:

  • Jimmie Johnson (+6600)

Driver Matchups:

  • Chase Elliott (-115) over Aric Almirola
  • Joey Logano (+105) over Brad Keselowski
  • Denny Hamlin (+135) over Ryan Blaney
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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