Welp—if you were looking for a rollercoaster week to shake up the presidential betting odds, 2020 has delivered. And for those of you that feel President Donald Trump is going to win the election, you now have an opportunity to cash in on some seriously great odds.
The week saw several major developments that shifted the odds heavily in the former Vice President’s favor. At the beginning of the week, we saw a small shift in Joe Biden’s way as continued results from the first presidential debate. But the major bombshell was the news that the President contracted the virus.
In fact, the presidential betting odds shifted so aggressively as a result of the medical news that many online sportsbooks temporarily pulled all betting odds completely! You know the news is major when that happens. But quickly thereafter, the odds were released again, but heavily in Joe Biden’s favor. Since then, the odds have shifted slightly back towards the President, likely a response to his positive prognosis and a slight correction to an over-aggressive betting market.
Donald Trump (+145)
Previous Odds Last Week: (+120)
The presidential betting odds on President Donald Trump shifted over the week from (+120) to (+145), signifying that current bettors feel the President is less likely to win the election. When you break these numbers out to implied probabilities, that’s a shift from a 45.5% favorite to win to a 40.8% favorite to win.
Joe Biden (-175)
Previous Odds Last Week: (-140)
For Joe Biden, it was a strong week. The odds shifted from (-140) to (-175). When you look at this in terms of implied probabilities, it shows a shift from a 58.3% favorite to 63.6% favorite. We’re sure the former VP’s camp is pretty excited about this. It is important to remember, though, that this is just the betting odds. The numbers that matter are what comes in on election night.
Check out how the odds have changed from previous weeks below:
What Could Change the Presidential Betting Odds This Week
Who is Betting – It’s worth pointing out that line shifts at this point are as a result of new money. That means that any major bettors who have already wagered aren’t going to affect any shifts unless they make additional wagers. For example, the shift from (-200) to (-175) for Joe Biden may have been a result of new bettors believing in the President’s chances, or it could have been as a result of bettors that have already bet on the President looking to cash in on some of the juiciest odds of the entire election cycle.
The President’s Health – The biggest factor we need to watch this week is how well President Trump recovers from the virus. It’s really hard to predict how all of this plays out with the betting public and the country, but we can be certain it’s going to be a factor.
The Vice Presidential Debate – Vice President Mike Pence and VP hopeful Kamala Harris are squaring off in the one and only VP debate. If you ask some people, they say the VP debate doesn’t matter much. However, after the lack of productivity from the first presidential debate, it might matter quite a bit more.
Joe Biden’s Worst Enemy – Unfortunately for the former VP, Joe Biden’s worst enemy continues to be Joe Biden. This week, Biden, who is already famous for speaking gaffes, had a few more slipups that didn’t sit well with a lot of people. First, Biden referenced the reason he was able to stay sequestered—”They’re saying, ‘Jeez, the reason I was able to stay sequestered in my home is because some black woman was able to stack the grocery shelf.” Additionally, Biden made reference to wanting to come watch a few young girls dance in a few years, which rubbed many the wrong way. We don’t dive into what we think he was trying to say, but it’s certainly something to be aware of if you’re looking to bet on the Presidential election.
Gary writes about political and entertainment betting and keeps an eye on serious legislative matters and pop culture for a living. But as someone who enjoys media consumption as much as the next person, Gary proclaims that writing and gambling his way out of debt is truly an entertaining way to live life. ...
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