5 Value Bets for NFL Exact Win Totals in 2020

By in NFL on
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Following the release of the NFL regular season schedule for 2020, NFL betting sites unveiled their prop bets called Exact Win Totals. These football bets are different from projected win totals, which require you to pick Over or Under the listed wins for each team.

Instead of picking the Over/Under, Exact Win Totals give you four different betting options to choose from with each option listing a range of wins.

After reviewing the NFL season schedule and all of the betting options for Exact Win Totals via BetOnline, the following five teams offer mouthwatering betting value for this NFL futures bet:

Buffalo Bills

  • 5-9 (-150)
  • 10-14 (+130)
  • 0-4 (+775)
  • 15-16 (+15000)
  Wins WOver Under 2019 Record Last 3 Years
Buffalo Bills 9 -135 -105 10-6 25-23

In previous NFL betting articles, I’ve been bullish on the Buffalo Bills winning more than nine games in 2020. And, after seeing their 2020 schedule, there’s a good chance that Buffalo will go at least 10-6 and possibly as high as 12-4.

The Bills will have one of the best defenses in the NFL, which translates into a high level of play on the road. Additionally, the selection of rookie RB Zack Moss to join the backfield with Singletary will provide the Bills with a solid 1-2 punch in the run game.

Like last year, the biggest question mark heading in to 2020 will be Josh Allen and the passing game. Fortunately for Allen, the Bills have brought back all five starting offensive linemen and have improved the passing weapons by trading for WR Stefon Diggs from the Vikings.

With a #1 wide receiver, a strong running game, and a solid offensive line, this Bills offense is expected to take another step in the right direction.

Looking at their schedule, the Bills could open up the season going 4-0 as they play the Jets, Dolphins, Rams and Raiders. The Rams game is at home, which means they will have the advantage over a good football team.

Their next four game stretch could be a tough one as they go to Tennessee, host Kansas City on TNF, go to the Jets and host the Patriots. This could be a 2-2 or 1-3 stretch. Buffalo could end up at worse 5-3 in their first eight games.

Three of their next four games are against the NFC West as they host the Seahawks, but go on the road to Arizona and San Francisco. They also host the Chargers in that stretch. At worse, I see Buffalo going 2-2 in these four games, which takes them to 7-5 on the season.

The final four games are home versus Pittsburgh and Miami, and on the road against Denver and the Patriots. The Bills should be able to go 3-1 in this stretch depending on how good the Patriots are this year.

At worse, the Bills will be 10-6. At best, they only lose to the Chiefs, 49ers, Titans and Seahawks, which gives them a record of 12-4. Either way, go with the betting option of 10-14 wins at +130 odds. This option offers great betting value.

Buffalo Bills Wins in 2020 –10-14 Wins (+130)

Indianapolis Colts

  • 5-9 (-125)
  • 10-14 (+110)
  • 0-4 (+800)
  • 15-16 (+12500)
  Wins Over Under 2019 Record Last 3 Years
Indianapolis Colts 9 -125 -105 7-9 21-27

Since the NFL Draft, and the release of the NFL schedule, online betting sites adjusted the Colts’ win total from 8.5 wins to 9. Like the Bills, I have also been very bullish on the Colts especially with what they’ve done this offseason.

If you combine what they did in the NFL Draft and in Free Agency, no other team has had a better offseason than the Colts.

Indy has improved their roster on both sides of the ball this offseason. Defensively, the Colts added DB Xavier Rhodes, DB T.J. Carrie, DT DeForest Buckner and DT Sheldon Day to an already above average unit.

Offensively, this team already had talent but they bumped that up to another level with the additions of QB Philip Rivers, TE Trey Burton and draft picks RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jr. This offense is going to be dangerous with speed at every skill position in addition to a Top 10 offensive line.

I believe the Colts will start the season at least 2-2 and could be 3-1 depending on how good the Bears are in Week 4. From there, I expect them to beat the Browns and the Bengals to go at least 4-2 into their Bye Week.

After the bye, they will most likely go 2-3 with wins over both the Lions and a split with the Titans. However, I do see losses against the Ravens and Packers. That’s 6-5 with five games remaining.

In that final stretch I see the Colts sweeping the Texans, beating the Raiders, beating the Jaguars, but losing at Pittsburgh to go 4-1 during those final five games and 10-6 overall on the season.

The option of 10-14 wins has good value at +110 odds. Yet, even If you think they will only go 9-7, the option for 5-9 wins still has some value at -125 odds.

Indianapolis Colts Wins in 2020 –10-14 Wins (+110)

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • 5-9 (-140)
  • 10-14 (+110)
  • 0-4 (+1100)
  • 15-16 (+12500)
  Wins Over Under 2019 Record Last 3 Years
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.5 +110 -140 8-8 30-17-1

I’m a bit surprised that oddsmakers favor the Steelers to go 5-9 for this prop bet. I believe, like with the Colts and Bills, that this is a 10-win team who will also make the Playoffs.

The immediate factor in the Steelers going from 8-8 last year to 10-6 this year is the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger who was out all of the 2019 season with an injury. He provides the offense with the leadership and playmaking abilities that they sorely lacked last year.

This offseason wasn’t as impressive for Pittsburgh as it was for teams like the Bills and Colts. However, they did bring in a few pieces to the offense that can really help them get back to being a Top 10 unit.

With Big Ben at QB, the Steelers will have a reliable passing game that added players like TE Eric Ebron and drafted WR Clayton Claypool and RB Anthony McFarland Jr. Both draft picks can provide the talented depth that this offense lacked in 2019.

Defensively, this unit will flirt with a Top 5 ranking overall as they have one of the best front sevens in the league due to their pass rush and athleticism.

Looking at the Steelers’ schedule, there’s potential to go 11-5 on the season. I see Pittsburgh going 3-0 in the first month with wins over the Giants, Broncos and Texans.

The next four games will be tough for this talented team as they head into the Bye Week after taking on the Titans, Philly, Cleveland and Baltimore. Best case scenario is 2-2 over this stretch and a record of 5-2 heading into the bye.

Following the Bye Week, Pittsburgh should be able to go 3-2 in their next five games with losses to Dallas and Baltimore. But, they should easily handle the Bengals, the Jaguars and Washington.

Sitting at 8-4 with four games left, I see Pittsburgh going at least 2-2 if not 3-1 as they lose to Buffalo, but beat the Bengals, Colts and most likely the Browns at the end of the season. The only way they don’t beat Cleveland in Week 17 is if Pittsburgh is resting players.

At 10-6 or 11-5, the Steelers will make the Playoffs and be a tough out this postseason. The betting option of 10-14 (+110) is the best wager for this prop bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers Wins in 2020 –10-14 Wins (+110)

Seattle Seahawks

  • 5-9 (-150)
  • 10-14 (+130)
  • 0-4 (+800)
  • 15-16 (+15000)
  Wins Over Under 2019 Record Last 3 Years
Seattle Seahawks 9 -140 +110 11-5 30-18

Last year, Seattle went 11-5 and just barely missed out on winning the NFC West division. They’ve averaged 10 wins per year and I don’t see why they won’t get at least 10 wins in 2020.

In fact, BetOnline has the Over 9 wins set at -140, but the betting option of 10-14 wins is listed at +130 odds. This is just too good to pass up on as Seattle will go at least 10-6, if not 11-5 again.

In Free Agency, the Seahawks addressed their biggest weakness from 2019 – the offensive line. They added at least three o-linemen who could be competing for starting spots. They also added WR Phillip Dorsett on the offense to be a perfect #3 wide receiver along with Lockett and Metcalf.

Defensively, they added Benson Mayowa and brought back Bruce Irvin to help with the pass rush. And, with their first two draft picks this year, they added athletic players to the front seven. This team got younger and more athletic on both sides of the ball.

From there, you know Russell Wilson is an annual MVP candidate and he will have all of his running backs returning from injuries, which we all know how that Seattle is a run-first offense that thrives off of the play action passing game.

Seattle’s schedule has some pros and cons to it, but nothing that would make me think this team will have less than 10 wins.

The Seahawks will play five games before their Bye Week and I believe they will go 4-1 over that stretch since three of those games are at home. Seattle will defeat the Falcons, Cowboys, Dolphins, and Patriots but I’m not sure about the Vikings yet.

Minnesota is a road game for Seattle, but the Vikings have had a lot of departures and not enough talent to replace the good players that they lost. The Patriots have to travel to Seattle in Week 2 and I don’t see Stidham beating Wilson.

After the Bye Week, Seattle has a rough stretch of five games with four divisional matchups and a trip to Buffalo. Seattle would be lucky to go 3-2 in this stretch and be 7-3 on the season.

Their remaining games are against the Eagles, Giants, Jets, Washington, Rams, and 49ers. I see the Seahawks going at least 4-2 in this final stretch and finishing at 11-5 and easily winning money on the Over 9 wins and the option of 10-14 wins.

Seattle Seahawks Wins in 2020 –10-14 Wins (+110)

Tennessee Titans

  • 5-9 (-145)
  • 10-14 (+170)
  • 0-4 (+450)
  • 15-16 (+15000)
  Wins Over Under 2019 Record Last 3 Years
Tennessee Titans 8.5 -125 -105 9-7 27-21

How can the AFC Conference runner up be viewed as a potential .500 team on the season? I understand that they didn’t do much in regards to the draft and free agency, but they re-signed RB Derrick Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill. Both were big signings for a team that was one game away from the Super Bowl.

Unlike the other teams on this list, Tennessee had the least exciting offseason outside of bringing back their own players. With that said, they still added a few pieces that could keep this team in the 2nd tier of AFC contenders.

The Titans brought in Vic Beasley Jr. to help with the pass rush and have been constantly liked as the odds on favorite to sign Clowney. However, even if they don’t bring in Clowney, I still think this is a 10 win team.

They open up the season at Denver who has a lot of young pieces that need time to gel together. I think the Titans’ experience can get them the win in Week 1. From there, I see the Titans going 3-2 in their next five games against the Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers, Bills and Texans.

Tennessee will head into the Bye Week with a record of at least 4-2. After the Bye Week, they should tally three straight wins against the Bengals, Bears and Colts. Those good vibrations will give way to a two game losing streak against the Ravens and at Indy to bring their record to 7-4 on the season.

In their final five games against the Browns, Jaguars, Lions, Packers, and Texans, I see Tennessee going at least 3-2 and finishing at least 10-6 on the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up 11-5 in 2020.

The Titans and Colts will be battling for the AFC South title and I believe both teams will make the Playoffs along with the Steelers and Bills. Right now, I give the edge to the Colts to win the title, which means the Titans would end up with one of the Wild Card spots.

Take the Titans betting option of 10-14 wins, which is listed at an outstanding line of +170. That’s the best value of all five teams in this article.

Tennessee Titans Wins in 2020 –10-14 Wins (+170)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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