Just like other sports, NASCAR bets require their own strategies for you to make good on your wager. And while luck is involved with all types of betting, it’s also important to remember skill is involved as well.
With NASCAR, we just can’t help variables that are outside our control. These include variables like crashes, black flags, penalties, etc.
But there are many variables we can help with.
We know which drivers of which teams are more likely to succeed. We know which drivers have a chance to dominate at specific racetracks. And we also know which drivers are dominating the season period.
With that said, there are plenty of ways to increase your chances to win your NASCAR bets regardless of the track that’s up for the incoming weekend.
This article explains six strategies you always want to use when placing your bets.
1 – Don’t Worry About What You Can’t Control
Things happen in a NASCAR event—black flags, crashes, blown tires, cut tires, penalties for speeding down pit road, etc. These are variables that are out of our control. And sometimes, in the case of wrecks or blown engines, it’s also outside the drivers’ control.
Yeah, our surefire finisher Kevin Harvick crashed out and now, we’re $50 in the hole. Hey, Harvick rarely crashes out. You made a good bet. He just didn’t finish. Heck, sometimes in the words of Ryan Newman, drivers just “run out of talent” at the wrong time.
No, not Harvick; the driver who wrecked him.
You can’t control it when a series of unfortunate events occur to a driver who, on most weekends, is putting money in your pocket.
And that’s something you have to consider whether you bet on them to lead the most laps, win stages, etc.
2 – Know Which Drivers Dominate Where
There are a lot of tracks on the NASCAR circuit and specific drivers often post consistent average finishes at specific tracks.
Know where these drivers are finishing races because it will help you get an idea of where they’re likely to finish—at least from a law of probability standpoint. No, the analytics side isn’t always accurate. But it’ll keep you from betting on a driver who posts an average finish of 22.8 at Bristol.
This is especially true if you’d otherwise consider betting on him over the guy whose average finish is 12.7 at Bristol and never would’ve known about it until you looked at some numbers.
So, before you bet on any driver, check out their past performances at the track for the upcoming weekend. Chances are, you may discover the driver you were looking to place a bet on was one of the worst bets you could have made.
While the other, more obscure yet successful driver, poses as a much safer option.
You also want to consider the types of tracks as well. Some drivers thrive at Daytona and Talladega, our superspeedways. Others are road course aces when they’d otherwise post average finishes at traditional tracks. Still, others dominate the short tracks of Bristol and Martinsville.
3 – Which Drivers Are Dominating the Season?
Yes, some drivers are having excellent seasons and it seems like when you look at their numbers it doesn’t matter where they race; they’re almost guaranteeing you a top-of-the-line finish.
Find out who these drivers are because they’re often safe bets. Now, if you’re a more aggressive bettor, bear in mind the odds will ever be in these drivers’ favor, so your payouts won’t be as high as you may like if and when these drivers do win you money.
If you’re more conservative with your betting, then the above strategy will almost always put “luck” on your side.
If you like to bet in a more aggressive manner, it’s still good to know who the safer bets are. However, you can also expand this to look at which drivers may be posting a good deal of top 10 finishes. However, their driving style may also put them behind the wall more often.
And if you are more aggressive with your bets, I’d suggest you go with something more like a 50-50. Put a few wagers on the safer bets before you decide to bet on the drivers who reside in the high-risk, high-reward categories.
4 – Who Are the Teams With the Best Equipment?
Seven teams stand out, and they each employ drivers who should be on your radar for most races. There are outliers. As mentioned above, not every driver fares well at every track. And some drivers are just having a bad season.
However, if you want to increase your odds of winning when NASCAR betting, then seriously consider drivers from these teams:
Joe Gibbs Racing
Richard Childress Racing
Chip Ganassi Racing
Now, not all of these teams will have good years. Roush-Fenway has not been outstanding in recent seasons. Ganassi’s team has younger drivers, as does Childress. However, these teams are often among the top of the list once their drivers gain experience.
Hendrick Motorsports had a few rebuilding seasons when Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. rode off into the sunset with Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, and William Byron joining the team. All of whom were young guys and in 2020, each one made the NASCAR playoffs.
All of the teams listed should be familiar with you if you’re a NASCAR fan because each one has stood the test of time. Many NASCAR teams come and go. If the economy experiences a downturn, they merge and often fold.
But the teams shown above also feature many similarities. They include better equipment, more experienced crew chiefs, faster pit crews, and in time, better and more experienced drivers.
With that said, drivers for these teams are almost always among the best in the sport. And they each make for safer, more sensible bets.
5 – Pay Attention to Stage Wins
You can steal a bet or two if you know which drivers win various stages. And while some won’t make it to victory lane all the time, either their position at the end of the first two stages of the race or their ability to win stages can put money in your pocket.
So, while you research performances at specific tracks, pay attention to the drivers’ stage wins and positions at the end of Stage 1 and Stage 2. That will tell you a lot. And while some may find it farfetched for you to bet on some no-name driver, if they do well in the earlier stages, you will look smart.
While the stage wins and stage positions aren’t flashy, they’re definitely worth consideration since drivers perform well during different times during a race. Think of each race as a marathon, and in a way, they are.
And within the marathon, think of Stage 1 as the 5k, Stage 2 as the 10k, and of course, the rest of the race as the marathon. And just like those of us who race with our legs, we all have our strengths and weaknesses at specific distances.
The same goes for NASCAR.
6 – Sleepers Are Rare
Except when the field is racing at Daytona in February’s Great American Race, sleepers are rare to come by in NASCAR. In fact, NASCAR.com just did a one-hit wonder article giving you a heads up on how many drivers in the sport put together just one win and a handful of high-end finishes.
It shows you how rare your sleepers are and often, the big dogs dominate.
It comes down to experience, equipment, and team chemistry. We already discussed which teams own the best equipment and subsequently, the best drivers.
The only real exception here is the road courses, where drivers either “got it” or they don’t. And of course, there’s the Daytona 500, where it seems like at least two drivers always come from nowhere to contend for the most prestigious prize in motorsports.
Yeah, you’ll get your Brett Bodines, Trevor Bayne’s, A.J. Allmendingers, etc. They happen once or twice a season. But that’s about it. The other drivers and other teams are just too good; they’re far too experienced. And it results in NASCAR being perhaps the only sport where sleepers rarely exist.
Like all forms of sports betting, NASCAR is more than just luck. There’s definite skill involved. And while we can’t control every variable in a race—in fact, we control none—we can use data, logic, and analytics to put ourselves in a good spot to win a few bets.
So, don’t worry about what you can’t control. Know which drivers dominate at which tracks, and which drivers are putting together a career season behind the wheel. You also need to know which teams always feature drivers who are contenders year in and year out.
Pay attention to those stage wins and where each driver finishes in accordance with each stage. Some drivers are better during the early and mid-stage than they are the final ones and vice versa. Finally, don’t get all hung up over sleepers. They’re rare at most tracks.
What are some of your favorite NASCAR betting strategies? Let us know in the comments.
Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. ...
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