On Friday, November 23rd, New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles announced that rookie QB Sam Darnold will miss the second straight game due to a foot injury. That means veteran backup quarterback Josh McCown will get the start for the second consecutive week.
With that said, the QB matchup between Josh McCown and Patriots’ QB Tom Brady marks the 2nd oldest combined QB age in the history of the league. McCown at 39 and Brady at 41 add up to 80 years. That’s two years shy of the NFL record set in 2007 when 44 year old Vinny Testaverde took on the 38 year old Brett Favre.
Brady has been the measuring stick and gold standard for quarterbacks over the last 15 years. He continues to play at a high level and should once again make a run at winning the AFC Championship this year. The same can’t be said for McCown.
In Josh’s first start of the year, the Jets were crushed 41 to 10 by the Buffalo Bills. McCown went 17 of 34 for 135 yards, 2 INTs, and a QB rating of 35.8. It was one of the worst performances of McCown’s career. This weekend’s matchup with the Patriots might not be any better.
Sunday’s matchup marks the 119th time these two teams have played against each other. It comes as no surprise that the Patriots lead the divisional rivalry with a record of 63-54-1. Over the last 15 games, the Patriots have gone 12-3 including winning the last 4 games in a row.
With that in mind, NFL betting sites have the Patriots as a double digit favorite on Sunday. For the majority of online sportsbooks, New England opened as a 9 to 9.5 point favorite. Throughout the week, the spread climbed as high as 11.5 points in favor of the Pats. Currently, the Patriots are favored by 10.5 points with most betting sites. Depending on which sportsbook you shopped at, the line moved .5 to 1 full point after the announcement of McCown starting for the Jets.
As a huge road favorite, the Patriots have a -435 moneyline. As the home underdog, the Jets have a +365 moneyline. The Over/Under is currently listed at 46.5 total points. Depending on which NFL oddsmaker you look at, the O/U dropped .5 to 1 full point after McCown was announced as the starter for the Jets.
This isn’t exactly rocket science here. The Patriots are the better team and need to take it up a notch as they position themselves for the playoffs. With 6 games left, New England sits on top of the AFC East with a record of 7-3. Surprisingly, they’re only 2-3 on the road so far. The Jets are 3-7 on the year and 2-3 at home.
One reason why I like the Patriots to win this game is that they’ve been sitting with the burning of a humiliating loss for two weeks. New England is coming off a Bye Week, but lost to the Titans 34 to 10 in Week 10. Typically, an angry Patriots team means a blowout victory is on the horizon. But, this year, there are some questions as to whether or not the Patriots can overcome an aging Brady, inconsistent running game, and injuries on both sides of the ball.
Despite all of that, this is the type of game we call a “get right game.” The Jets are inferior to the Patriots on both sides of the ball. New York gives up 379.6 total ypg and 25.4 ppg. Furthermore, the defense allows 260.1 passing ypg and 119.5 rushing ypg. This isn’t the tough Jets defense we’ve been accustomed to over the last few years.
New England will feast on a weak secondary as he’s averaging close to 280 passing ypg. The Pats will also try to establish a running game against a poor rush defense especially with a healthy Michel. I expect Brady to have a solid game this weekend and easily outplay his fellow elderly quarterback on Sunday.
The Patriots have a poor defense and it’s cost them a few games. I would think that New England worked on some things over the Bye Week and we will see them play better on the defensive side of the ball. With that said, the Jets could put up some yards this weekend and maybe some points.
In the end, I expect the Patriots to win for the 5th consecutive time in this rivalry and to hand the Jets their 5th straight loss this season.
Despite the Patriots owning this head-to-head series, they haven’t been good ATS versus the Jets. Currently, the Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Jets and 0-5 ATS when playing on the road in this rivalry. The Underdog has gone 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The home team has gone 6-0-1 in the last 7 head-to-head games.
This year, New England is only 4-3 ATS versus the AFC and 2-3 ATS in road games. I’m not confident in the Patriots covering 10.5 points, even against the Jets. Divisional games are tough, especially on the road.
New England’s moneyline of -435 offers no value. With the Jets having very little chance of winning this game, their moneyline of +365 isn’t worth touching.
At first, the O/U seemed like the default wager but after taking a deeper dive into the NFL betting odds, I believe this is the smart play. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. In the last 10 meetings, the Under is 6-4. In their last 10 head-to-head games, the Patriots and Jets combined to average 42 ppg
For the Patriots, the Under is 4-0 following a SU loss, 6-0 when playing a team with a losing home record, 5-1 when playing a losing team, 5-1 against the AFC East, 5-2 in last 7 November games and 5-2 following an ATS loss.
For the Jets, the Under is 3-1-1 following a home loss by 10 or more points, 8-3 against the AFC East, and 9-4 after allowing 30 or more points in the previous game.
Initially, I thought this game could be high scoring. But the Jets are just a bad team this year and the Patriots really need a win as they’re falling further behind the Chiefs and Steelers in the AFC. Furthermore, a loss to the Jets combined with a win this weekend by the Dolphins would give the Patriots a 1 game lead in the division.
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