Bellator 241: Pitbull vs Carvalho Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

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Bellator 241 Pitbull

On Friday, March 13th, Bellator will be live from the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut for Bellator 241 also known as Bellator 241: Pitbull vs Carvalho.

The main event of the evening is a featherweight title fight as Patricio Freire puts his title on the line against Pedro Carvalho in the quarterfinal of the featherweight grand prix tournament.

The co-main event of the night is a second quarterfinal grand prix fight as Emmanuel Sanchez takes on Daniel Weichel. Other notable names on the main card are Paul Daley, Matt Mitrione, Anatoly Tokov, and Nick Newell.

Bellator 241 is scheduled to have at least 15 fights. However, only the main card will be streamed beginning at 10 PM ET on DAZN.

Bellator betting sites have released odds for most of the main card fights. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to take a look at these Bellator 241 odds courtesy of 5Dimes and KO our predictions.

Nick Newell vs Zach Zane

  • Nick Newell (-265)
  • Zach Zane (+185)

Zach Zane comes in as the underdog despite winning his Bellator debut fight in December. Zane is 2-2 over his last four fights after winning eight straight contests. 13 of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of submission.

Nick Newell dropped his last fight, which took place in October. He’s now 1-1 with Bellator and 2-2 in his last four fights as well. 13 of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with 11 by way of stoppage. Only five his 19 pro fights have gone the distance.

This fight is closer than what the odds indicate, so there is potential value with Zach Zane. However, the safe play is on Newell for this bout. He’s the better grappler between the two and should be able to get this fight to the mat where he can control the action and come away with the submission or decision win.

Newell vs Zane – Bellator 241 Bet: Newell (-265)

Anatoly Tokov vs Fabio Aguiar

  • Anatoly Tokov (-1100)
  • Fabio Aguiar (+700)

Despite having just one loss and entering this contest on a nine fight win streak, Aguiar is the biggest underdog on the card. He’s making his Bellator debut in this middleweight matchup.

14 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine wins via TKO/KO. He’s scored a TKO/KO in five of his last six fights including four straight. Aguiar has talent, but he’s an unproven fighter against competition of this caliber.

Anatoly Tokov will step inside the Bellator cage for the 6th time and has won all five fights under the banner. His last contest was in October and he won via 2nd round TKO. Four of his five Bellator wins have come via stoppage. 23 of Tokov’s 29 pro wins have come via stoppage with 16 by way of TKO/KO.

Tokov is a rising middleweight fighter who could see a title fight in the near future. He’s pretty much dominated the competition in Bellator and a 6th straight win will definitely boost his stock.

With that said, there’s no reason to think that Tokov won’t win this fight. Aguiar hasn’t fought anyone the level of Tokov before and will have his troubles in this contest. Tokov is solid on the mat and a knockout machine standing up. I don’t see Aguiar lasting the distance in this contest.

Tokov vs Aguiar – Bellator 241 Bet:Tokov (-1100)

Matt Mitrione vs Ronny Markes

  • Matt Mitrione (-185)
  • Ronny Markes (+145)

This fight was originally supposed to be Josh Barnett vs Ronny Markes. However, Barnett was removed from the card due to an issue with not being licensed by the state’s commission. Apparently he failed a medical requirement. So, Matt Mitrione has taken his place.

Ronny Markes has a decent resume as he’s fought for many top promotions like KOTC, PFL, M-1, and the UFC where he went 3-2 inside the octagon. This bout will be his first with Bellator and he’s 1-2 in his last three fights.

12 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. Although he’s not a top shelf heavyweight, he’s competent enough to keep this fight on the main card portion of the event.

Mitrione is looking to get back into the win column after going 0-2 with 1 NC in his last three fights. It’s been 25 months since he last won a contest. Nicknamed “Meathead,” Mitrione last fought in August and lost via 2nd round TKO to Sergei Kharitonov.

Currently, Mitrione is 4-2 with 1 NC in Bellator. 11 of his 13 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. Mitrione can stand and strike or ground and pound his way to victory.

I have a hard time seeing Markes win this fight. Mitrione has enough skills in both the standup and ground games to beat Markes wherever the battle ends up. I believe he will get the TKO/KO in this contest as Markes has lost three fights via TKO/KO.

Mitrione vs Markes – Bellator 241 Bet:Mitrione (-185)

Paul Daley vs Sabah Homasi

  • Paul Daley (-380)
  • Sabah Homasi (+315)

This fight is all about whether or not Paul Daley will get his highlight reel knockout victory. If you ask Homasi, Daley is not only going to miss out on a highlight win, but he will end up being the one to capture victory on Friday:

“I expect a finish out of myself with Paul. Even if I don’t finish him, I know I’ll still win regardless. I’m better than him everywhere. I’m the younger, better version of him. This is mixed martial arts, so if you’ve got holes your game you’ll be exposed, and you know that’s that.”

This is bold talk from Homasi who lost all three of his UFC fights via TKO/KO and never made it to the third round. He was able to turn it around after the UFC by winning his last two fights including his Bellator debut against Micah Terrill via KO in 17 seconds last August.

11 of Homasi’s 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO. However, he does have five TKO/KO losses, which opens the door to Daley adding another KO to his resume.

Daley is a longtime Bellator fighter who’s well-known for his knockout power. 33 of his 42 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. Daley has fought just about every top name to come through his division in Bellator from Tyron Woodley and Nick Diaz (in 2011) to Rory MacDonald, Douglas Lima, and Michael Page.

He’s a deadly striker with devastating knockout power. His last fight was in October and he won via 2nd round TKO over Saad Awad. I expect a similar outcome for this contest as well. I’m taking Daley to win via TKO/KO before the 3rd round.

Daley vs Homasi – Bellator 241 Bet:Daley (-380)

Daniel Weichel vs Emmanuel Sanchez

  • Daniel Weichel (+130)
  • Emmanuel Sanchez (-150)

This featherweight grand prix quarterfinal fight is a rematch from when the two battled at Bellator 159 in 2016. Weichel won that fight via split decision and has gone 3-2 since then. However, he is the underdog for this contest.

Weichel had dropped two straight fights before defeating Saul Rogers in the opening round of the tournament last September. Weichel is a grappler with 22 submission wins on his resume. However, it’s been over three years since he scored his last stoppage win.

For Sanchez, he’s gone 6-1 since the loss to Weichel in 2016. His lone defeat was to Patricio Freire in November 2018 via unanimous decision. Sanchez easily beat Tywan Claxton in the opening round of the tournament last September via 2nd round submission.

Since learning that he would get a rematch against Weichel, Sanchez has been highly motivated to step back inside the cage with the German fighter. In fact, Sanchez is predicting a 1st round victory:

“Daniel Weichel will be done in one at the Mohegan Sun! That’s for sure — you can believe that! You know I was 25 when I fought him (the first time) and to me that had been the biggest fight for me because he had just fought for the world title.”

Since their fight in 2016, Sanchez has significantly improved. I am picking him to win this rematch and to advance in the tournament. However, I can’t agree with his prediction that he will win in the 1st round.

14 of Sanchez’s 23 pro fights have gone the distance. For Weichel, 16 of his 51 pro fights have gone the distance which includes six of his last seven contests. These two men like to grapple and I expect this fight to go the distance where Sanchez gets the unanimous decision victory.

Weichel vs Sanchez – Bellator 241 Bet:Sanchez (-150)

Patricio Freire vs Pedro Carvalho

  • Patricio Freire (-900)
  • Pedro Carvalho (+600)

Carvalho comes in as a heavy underdog and rightfully so. He’s going up against the two division champ who hasn’t lost in 3 ½ years. Pedro Carvalho knows that he’s a large underdog in this fight, but is fully confident in winning. In fact, he’s predicting a knockout:

“I’m going to be the first guy to finish him. I doubt he passes the second round. If he passes the second round, he’s going to be just a body hanging around the cage. And if he’s still alive in the third round, I’m going to have some fun and then I’m going to finish him. I’m going to knock Patricio out.”

For Carvalho, he’s won six straight contests including a submission victory over Sam Sicilia in the opening round of the tournament. It was the 6th submission win in his career and the 8th stoppage victory. Carvalho is 4-0 under the Bellator banner.

Patricio “Pitbull” Freire continues to impress with his dominating wins including beating Juan Archuleta in the opening round of the tournament and beating Michael Chandler 10 months ago. Freire is one of the promotion’s top fighters and a home grown talent.

Freire’s last loss came in August 2016 to Benson Henderson via TKO from a leg injury. His biggest struggles have come against elite wrestlers, which Carvalho is not. Speaking of his opponent, Freire commented on Carvalho’s confidence in winning:

“I like the way he’s confident and how he thinks he can beat me. He is young, and I used to be young, too. I had that same mentality and I felt I would be able to do everything to everybody and no one would be able to do anything to me.”

21 of his 30 pro wins have come via stoppage. He can win this fight on the mat or standing up and striking as he’s almost evenly split between them in victories.

Carvalho will have a better chance on the mat than standing up. Freire is a better striker and has the advantage in knockout power. He also has the advantage on the mat where I think he wins this fight.

Freire has the championship experience, advantages in stand up and grappling, and has the knockout power to finish the fight with one punch. I believe Pitbull is going to win this fight before the end of the 3rd round and most likely via submission.

Freire vs Carvalho – Bellator 241 Bet:Freire (-900)

Bellator 241 Final Thoughts

Bellator 241 is shaping up to be a solid card. The two featherweight tournament fights are going to be competitive and exciting. The rest of the main card has plenty of entertainment potential as well.

As for betting action, there’s really only one or two fights that has odds worth taking. I would suggest waiting for potential prop bets later this week or Over/Unders for each fight.

Bellator 241 Full Card

  • Patricio Freire (30-4) vs Pedro Carvalho (11-3)
  • Daniel Weichel (40-11) vs Emmanuel Sanchez (19-4)
  • Paul Daley (42-17-2) vs Sabah Homasi (13-8)
  • Matt Mitrione (13-7) vs Ronny Markes (19-7)
  • Anatoly Tokov (29-2) vs Fabio Aguiar (17-1)
  • Nick Newell (16-3) vs Zach Zane (14-9)

Prelim Fights

  • Killys Mota (12-1) vs Nate Andrews (17-3)
  • Leandro Pitbull (19-5) vs John Campbell (18-9)
  • Leslie Smith (11-8-1) vs Jessica Miele (9-3)
  • Robson Gracie Jr. (3-0) vs Billy Goff (1-2)
  • Romero Cotton (4-0) vs Justin Sumter (7-3)
  • Jordan Newman (2-0) vs Pat McCrohan (4-3)
  • Mike Kimble (3-2) vs Kenneth Rivera (2-2)
  • Baby Slice (3-2) vs Kaheem Murray (1-4)
  • Ion Pascu (18-10) vs Mark Lemminger (9-1)
  • Vladimir Tokov (5-0) vs Marcus Surin (6-2)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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