Bellator 246: Archuleta vs Mix Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

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Juan Archuleta Patchy Mix

On Saturday, September 12th, Bellator will be live with their second show of the weekend from the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, for Bellator 246. The featured bout of this exciting card is for the vacant bantamweight belt as Juan Archuleta battles Patchy Mix.

In the co-main event of the night, Jon Fitch battles Neiman Gracie. Also on the card is the Bellator debut of Liz Carmouche and Derek Campos taking on Keoni Diggs. The main card for Bellator 246 begins at 10PM ET and airs on Paramount and DAZN.

Bellator betting sites have released odds for the entire main card. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these Bellator 246 odds, identify potential value, and KO our picks.

Derek Campos vs Keoni Diggs

  • Derek Campos (+125)
  • Keoni Diggs (-155)

The longtime Bellator veteran Derek Campos comes into this weekend’s contest having lost four of his last five bouts and last competed in December where he lost via 3rd round submission. For his career, Campos has gone 9-8 under the Bellator banner.

Campos is returning to the lightweight division after competing as a featherweight for his last three fights where he went 1-2.

11 of his 20 pro wins have come via stoppage with six wins by TKO/KO. Campos is 9-3 when going to a decision.

Keoni Diggs made his Bellator debut late last year and defeated Scotty Hao via 2nd round submission. He’s taking this fight on two weeks’ notice after Roger Huerta pulled out of the bout due to an injury.

Six of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 2-0 when going to a decision.

This fight is a “must win” scenario for Campos who can’t afford another loss or his time in Bellator could come to an end. Fortunately, I believe he has a good chance at winning on Saturday. Diggs is unbeaten, but he hasn’t faced the level of competition that Campos throughout his career.

I’m taking Campos to control the fight and outpoint Diggs as he picks up the decision victory. Three of his last four wins have come via decision.

Derek Campos vs Keoni Diggs –Campos (+125)

Liz Carmouche vs DeAnna Bennett

  • Liz Carmouche (-515)
  • DeAnna Bennett (+375)

This contest has the biggest disparity in betting odds as Liz Carmouche is the largest betting favorite on the card as she makes her highly anticipated Bellator debut.

DeAnna Bennett started off her career going 8-0 before a difficult stretch in Invicta FC that saw her go 2-6-1 in her last nine fights. She’s lost two straight contests and hasn’t competed in one year where she was defeated by Miranda Maverick with a submission in the 3rd round.

Four of her 10 pro wins have come via stoppage. Bennett is 6-4-1 when going the distance. Despite being an overwhelming underdog, Bennett is confident that her hand will be raised at the end of the fight:

“It’s gonna be a war definitely because she’s not somebody that goes down easily. I’m not going in there to just play around. I think it’s going to be an excellent fight. I know in the end my hand is gonna get raised and beyond that it just depends on what kind of fighter she is on fight day and depends on what kind of fighter I am on fight day. I’m looking for a finish. I got to finish in that tournament last year and it felt really good. I’m not in there to fight to not lose, I’m in there to fight to win.”

As mentioned, Carmouche is making her Bellator debut after spending the last seven years and 10 fights in the UFC where she went 5-5. Carmouche hasn’t fought in 13 months and is 2-1 in her last three contests.

Carmouche has eight stoppage wins in her career with six by TKO/KO. She’s 5-5 when going to a decision.

If there was a tiered rankings in all of women’s MMA, Carmouche would be one tier below the top fighters. She’s good enough to beat the women below her, but not elite enough to be the world champs.

With that said, I fully expect Carmouche to win this fight on Saturday. However, I believe it will go the distance. Bennett stated that she thinks this bout will be a war and I happen to agree.

I expect three rounds of striking with Carmouche coming away with the decision victory. Seven of Bennett’s last eight bouts have gone the distance, while Carmouche has gone to a decision in eight straight contests.

For Bellator, once Carmouche wins, I expect the promotion to put her next in line to fight the company’s flyweight champ Ilima-Lei Macfarlane. This would be a dramatic matchup since they’re longtime teammates who both want to fight each other.

Liz Carmouche vs DeAnna Bennett –Carmouche (-515)

Jon Fitch vs Neiman Gracie

  • Jon Fitch (-105)
  • Neiman Gracie (-125)

In the co-main event of the night, we have the closest fight on paper and with Bellator betting sites.

John Fitch comes in as the slight underdog, sporting a six fight unbeaten streak. However, he hasn’t competed since April 2019 when he fought to a draw against Rory MacDonald.

At 42 years of age, Fitch has been one of the best welterweights of all-time as he’s won belts in the UFC, Bellator and WSOF. He’s hoping that a win this weekend would put him back in line for another title shot. 20 of his 32 pro wins have come via decision.

Neiman Gracie hasn’t fought since June 2019 when he lost do Rory MacDonald via unanimous decision. That was the first loss of his pro career. Gracie is 6-1 since dropping down to welterweight and is 7-1 under the Bellator banner. Eight of his nine pro wins have come via submission. Gracie is 1-1 when going the distance.

Gracie was set to return to the cage last December, but he broke his hand one week before the fight and had to pull out. After returning to full health, Bellator’s shutdown due to covid pushed back Gracie’s 2020 debut until September.

As for his thoughts on fighting John Fitch, Gracie believes it will be a grappling war:

“I think he’s a very tough guy and a sports legend, and even though he is older, I believe he is in a great moment in his career. I think it’s going to be a great fight – a war fought mainly through grappling.”

There’s no doubt that this fight will end up on the mat. From there, I believe Gracie’s elite grappling will get the better of Fitch. However, I don’t think we will see a stoppage in this bout. If Fitch isn’t putting someone away, he’s almost always going the distance.

Once at the scorecards, I see Gracie getting the biggest win of his career as he takes home a split decision victory.

Liz Carmouche vs DeAnna Bennett –Gracie (-125)

Juan Archuleta vs Patrick Mix

  • Juan Archuleta (+150)
  • Patrick Mix (-180)

The main event of the night is a world title fight for the vacant bantamweight belt. Former champ Kyoji Horiguchi vacated the belt late last year due to injury. Both of these competitors are “home grown” talent that also spent their first few years as a pro in KOTC.

Juan Archuleta last fought in January and defeated Henry Corrales via unanimous decision. It was a bounce back win after losing one year ago to Patricio Freire for the featherweight title. He’s a former three division champ in KOTC and looking for his first title in Bellator where he sports a 6-1 record.

At first, Archuleta told Bellator that he wanted to face Sergio Pettis for the vacant belt, but the top brass decided to put Patchy Mix into the bout due his status as a rising star. Regardless of the opponent, Archuleta believes he will take the belt home:

“It was either going to be Sergio, or it was going to be Patchy Mix. My request was Sergio, but they said, ‘We believe Patchy Mix is a better fit in our organization for the 135 for the contender,’ and I said, ‘Let’s do it, whoever has the best momentum, put them in front of me because I’m going to put them away and bring the belt home.’”

Patchy Mix joined Bellator 15 months ago and has forced both of his opponents to tap out in the 1st round. In fact, nine of his 13 pro wins have come via submission. It’s been three years since he’s gone the distance in a fight and I just don’t see that happening on Saturday.

This bout is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. However, I believe Mix’s standup is better than Archuleta’s ground game. At some point Mix will control this fight from the mat and eventually find a limb or Archuleta’s neck to crank on until Juan taps out.

Bellator will celebrate behind closed doors that they have added an unbeaten, home grown (non-UFC) fighter to their championship ranks. Mix will become the 10th fighter in Bellator’s history to win a world title with an unbeaten record.

Juan Archuleta vs Patrick Mix –Mix (-180)

Full Bellator 246 Card

  • Juan Archuleta (24-2) vs Patrick Mix (13-0)
  • Jon Fitch (32-7-2) vs Neiman Gracie (9-1)
  • Liz Carmouche (13-7) vs DeAnna Bennett (10-6-1)
  • Derek Campos (20-10) vs Keoni Diggs (8-0)
  • Pat Casey (6-2) vs Daniel Madrid (17-6)
  • Jered Gwerder (4-1) vs George Tokkos (4-1)
  • Ras Hylton (6-4) vs Davion Franklin (1-0)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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