On Tuesday, January 28th, the UK Parliament voted against delaying the Brexit date scheduled for March 29th. It was a massively important moment for Theresa May, who feared that a delay in the UK’s withdrawal from the EU would undermine the country’s constitution.
May will now need to resume talks with the EU in an attempt to form at least some type of agreement before the end of March.
It’s a fascinating time in the history of the United Kingdom and Europe. Many questions still remain about how the Brexit situation will unfold, and some of the UK gambling sites are allowing their members to bet on the potential outcomes.
Let’s take a look at some of the best Brexit bets to make in 2019. The odds here are provided by Betway Sportsbook.
To Happen First – Theresa May Resigning or Brexit Happening
Theresa May has had a rough time serving as Prime Minister of the UK. Her entire term in office has been consumed by Brexit, and some feel the stress might force her to resign in the next couple of weeks.
Parliament’s decision to keep their leave date in March can be seen as both a positive and a negative for May.
On one hand, it gives her a chance to sort out this whole mess while there’s still time. She will now be heading back to Brussels to renegotiate the terms of the deal. It’s likely that the majority of her time spent in Brussels will be spent discussing the Irish border.
Had May’s plan B been shut down by Parliament we may have seen her resignation take place today, and for that reason, she’s considered to be coming off a win.
On the other hand, Theresa May has an extremely tough couple of months ahead of her. Parliament technically ruled out a no-deal Brexit; however, they didn’t agree on what to do if no deal has been made by the end of March. Some are already calling May’s upcoming trip to Brussels “doomed.”
Perhaps no UK Prime Minister has been dealt this much pressure since Winston Churchill. The future of the country hangs in the balance here. May is certainly giving her best effort, but people can only take so much stress.
At the moment, the odds that Theresa May resigns are higher than Brexit happening first. Her odds of leaving office before Brexit are currently at 1.50. Two months still remain until Brexit goes down, and there’s still time for both parties involved to come to an agreement. The odds that Brexit takes place while May is still Prime Minister are set at 2.40.
This is without a doubt one of the best Brexit bets to make in 2019. It’s a little morbid, yet the odds shine a light on how much chaos the UK political system is really in right now.
Whether or Not the UK Actually Leaves the EU on March 29th
This has to be one of the best Brexit bets to make in 2019. As of now, the UK is still officially scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29th. As I mentioned earlier though, there are some major issues associated with their withdrawal. British MP’s simply cannot agree to the terms.
Parliament is particularly torn on what is called the Irish backstop. Not long ago, the EU told the press that a no-deal Brexit deal would almost certainly mean a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK. A wall might not seem like a huge deal… But it is.
I won’t rehash the sad and violent history between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but a wall being established between the two could ignite the same kind of conflict we saw from the late 60’s until 1998.
There are essentially three ideas here to avoid that. One is to establish a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. That’s unlikely to go over well with the Irish people.
The second option would be to establish a border surrounding the UK mainland, leaving Northern Ireland within the EU Customs Union. Again, not a great plan and Theresa May has already shot it down. Lastly, the entire UK could simply stay within the EU Customs Union.
Unfortunately, this would kind of defeat the entire purpose of Brexit and the idea of independent trade policy. See why virtually no progress has been made here? And why this is on our list of the best Brexit bets of 2019?
The Irish backstop is just one of many issues the UK is still working to resolve. With only two months left until they leave the EU, how can they possibly figure this all out? Now, Members of Betway Sportsbook can bet on if the UK actually manages to leave the EU on March 29th.
Unsurprisingly, the UK not leaving by this date is the betting favorite. At least for now, the country is holding to the idea that, come March 30th, they’ll be gone. The oddsmakers disagree, and the odds that they are still part of the European Union on that day are listed at 1.20.
Could Theresa May find the perfect solution to make all parties happy in two months? Possibly. The odds that the UK does indeed leave on March 29th are currently listed at 4.00. With so much still in the air, this has to be included into a list of the best Brexit bets to make in 2019.
Will There Be a No-Deal Brexit?
At this point, I hope I have emphasized how complicated an issue this is for both the EU and the UK. As the world’s fifth largest economy, the UK leaving the EU will have some huge socioeconomic consequences. This final addition to my list of the best Brexit bets to make in 2019 sort of ties the previous two bets together.
For those unaware, a no-deal Brexit means the UK leaving the EU without agreeing to the terms of their departure. As I mentioned earlier, Parliament backed an amendment today that rejected the idea of a no-deal.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean much. They didn’t specify how exactly they intend to avoid a no-deal situation and the amendment they agreed to was not legally binding.
They say the withdrawal agreement is done, and the UK has the option to either take it or leave it.
Unless Parliament concedes that no deal can be made by the end of March, the European Union will not grant an extension to the deadline. I could delve into the issues that would inevitably arise from a no-deal Brexit, but let’s set that aside for now.
They might be stubborn, but MP’s in the UK understand that a no-deal Brexit will be terrible for everyone. Their backing of the amendment to reject a no-deal plan shows that.
Betway Sportsbook seems to feel that some type of deal will be made. The odds that the UK comes to an agreement with the EU is higher right now at 1.16. There is definitely cause for concern that no deal gets made, though. The odds of this happening are currently listed at 4.50.
Considering how much is at stake, it feels a little weird calling these the best Brexit bets to make in 2019. They do offer some real opportunities to cash out. What other time will you have the ability to place bets on the future of a continent?
Which of the three bets above do you want to bet on? Will Theresa May last her entire term in office? Can the UK and EU come to some type of agreement? Let us know what you think in the comment section below!