Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season takes place this weekend and we’ve got a full slate of prop bets for you to check out. You can find wagers like these and ride them all the way to the bank if you know how to choose wisely and look for value.
In some cases, it can be easier to project how an individual will perform statistically in an NFL game than trying to figure out how their teams will do. That’s where NFL prop bets on individual players’ stats come into the picture, as you can speculate all you want on the performances of top stat-getters such as, for example, Alvin Kamara of New Orleans:
This week’s action presents a whole new slate of prop bet possibilities, and we’re here to help you sort through them. We’ll give you our top choices for quarterbacks, running backs and receivers, finding the best value for you at top gambling websites this weekend. Check it out and see if you agree with our advice.
Top Quarterback Prop Bets for Week 6
Rams QB Matthew Stafford: Over 283.5 Yards Passing Against Giants (-115)
In past years, you might have worried about a quarterback heading into New York because of the New York Giants‘ style of play: slow it down on offense and shut you down on defense. But they’ve had to change that style this year. Their defense isn’t getting it done in the same way as in past seasons, and the offense has turned up the heat in response.
It’s actually good news for Stafford’s passing prospects that Daniel Jones is scheduled to play in this one after leaving New York’s last game with a concussion. That will likely force Stafford to keep throwing instead of ending up in a game script where the Rams can sit on the ball with a big lead late in the game.
Stafford is averaging over 317 yards passing per game through five contests so far this season. With his wide selection of talented targets and the Giants secondary not playing at nearly the same level this season, this seems like a gimme. Take the over here and watch Stafford fling it all over the Meadowlands.
Raiders QB Derek Carr: Under 267.5 Yards Passing Against Broncos (-115)
The Broncos have let only one quarterback go over Carr’s projected line all season long. That was against Lamar Jackson, who has been lighting up just about everybody through the air this season. Add in the fact that the game is in Denver, which should help the home team out a bit in their attempts to stop Carr.
Las Vegas’ offensive line has been struggling mightily of late, and that certainly contributed to their ugly nine-point offensive performance against Chicago last week. Carr’s numbers are also in a bit of freefall at the moment. After averaging over 400 yards passing a game in the Raiders’ 3-0 start, he’s down to 201 yards per game in the last two losses.
Man, I feel awful for Derek Carr. He's been through so much. 5 head coaches in 8 seasons and just a whole lot of drama in between.
It’s always hard to read psychology into stats, but it’s also hard to imagine the Raiders being anything but distracted on Sunday after the week they’ve had. This one is shaping up as one where the Broncos control the ball and keep Carr mostly off the field and contained even when he’s on it.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow: Over 1.5 Passing TDs Against Lions (-215)
The Lions have quietly put up a streak of three games in a row of holding opponents to under 2 touchdown passes in a game. They’ve been stingier on defense than people though they could manage, responding to new coach Dan Campbell. But personnel-wise, this is still a very ordinary defense.
Speaking of personnel, Joe Burrow has it on his side. Now that Tee Higgins is healthy, Cincy can come at the opponents with a three-headed monster of Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd. Chase on his own has caught a touchdown pass in all but one game so far this season.
This feels like a game where Burrow has his best statistical game of the young season for the Bengals. Don’t forget that Joe Mixon is still banged up, which should keep Cincy from going overboard with the run. But the main key here is that the Bengal receivers will have too much for the Lion secondary and multiple passing touchdowns should be the result.
Bears QB Justin Fields: Under 1.5 Passing TDs Against Packers (-255)
The key factor about this bet is we’re talking about passing touchdowns. With even more practice time with the first team for the rookie, Fields should be uncorked as a running threat in this contest. But as far as passing volume, it’s unlikely that will be forthcoming just yet.
Green Bay is definitely hurting right now on pass defense without lead cornerback Jaire Alexander. But the Bears just aren’t the team with the weaponry to truly take advantage of that. That’s especially true with word this week that Allen Robinson II, their top receiver who is off to a sluggish start, missed practice time with injury.
This game is shaping up as one that is a ball-control type affair with field goals perhaps substituting for touchdowns. Fields is only going to get better each week, but he’s not quite there yet. Look for him to do well running the ball, but not to do much as a passer, especially in the Red Zone.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: Over 262.5 Passing/ Rushing Yards Against Dolphins (-115)
Here is another case where a returning quarterback on one side should help out the statistical potential of the quarterback on the other side. In this case, Tua Tagavailoa looks like he’ll return to the lineup for the Dolphins, giving their offense a major boost. That means extra added pressure on the Jags offense to score.
Lawrence has only reached the above threshold twice so far in five games this year. But he has been getting more involved in the running game each week on read options and the like. That, plus the increased need to air it out which we’re anticipating will be the case, should help him out.
The good thing here is that this over/under has nothing to do with efficiency, as Lawrence has thrown two more interceptions than touchdowns in 2021 so far. Keep in mind that Xavien Howard, Miami’s top cornerback, might be iffy to play. Add all of it up and Lawrence should rack up some numbers, even if it’s only in garbage time.
Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes: Over 0.5 Interceptions Against Washington (+100)
Mahomes has thrown six interceptions in his last four games for the Chiefs. Incredibly, in his last two full seasons in the NFL, he has thrown 5 and 6 picks for the whole year. Kansas City is scuffling to keep up with teams due to the ineptitude of their defense, and it is showing up in Mahomes’ play.
There has been a bit more of a tendency to force the football from Mahomes, and an overall carelessness in general from the team with the football. Now the Chiefs will be without Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and there’s no word yet on Tyreek Hill’s availability this week after he missed practice time.
In other words, that is even more burden on Mahomes, and more possibilities to make ill-advised decisions with the football. There is no doubt that the WFT has been a major disappointment defensively, as they’ve managed only two picks so far this year. But we’re guessing that they fall into at least one pick here because of KC’s struggles.
Top Running Back Prop Bets for Week 6
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor: Over 80.5 Rushing Yards Against Texans (-115)
It’s a little hard to believe, but Taylor has only topped 80 yards once so far in the first five Colts games. Game script has largely been the culprit, as Indy has been playing from behind a lot in their 1-4 start. Taylor has also been contributing as a receiver to help boost his impact even when the rushing yards aren’t there.
But the Colts might finally have that game script in their favor against the Texans, who are also struggling at only 1-4. That should allow Taylor to get the kind of running volume he needs. It was what happened when the Colts won their only game of the year two weeks ago and Taylor topped 100 yards against Miami.
Look for him to get the ball early and often against a defense that hasn’t faced too many powerful rushing attacks. When they did face Cleveland’s running game, Houston proved exceptionally yielding. This should be a smash spot for Taylor and he should be well over the number above at game’s end.
Rams RB Darrell Henderson: Under 76.5 Rushing Yards Against Giants (-115)
The Giants run defense isn’t nearly as stout as it has been, especially without Blake Martinez (out for the year) cleaning up messes at inside linebacker. Yet that number seems like a pretty big one for Henderson, especially for an offense that is always thinking throw first.
Henderson has been an efficient runner to this point in the season, averaging just shy of five yards per carry. But he hasn’t received more than 17 rushes in any of the four games that he’s played so far. And with Sony Michel sharing some of the workload, that 17-carry total now seems pretty steep for him to reach.
While Henderson has definitely been able to do a lot with a little carrying the ball this year, the margin for error for him is pretty slim with a total that high. We could see him at somewhere around a mark of 15 carries for 70 yards at the end of this one. That puts him under the total with some room to spare.
Washington RB Antonio Gibson: Over 90.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards Against Chiefs (-115)
While Gibson has been battering his way into the end zone with regularity so far this season, we haven’t really seen him crank it up too much in terms of his yardage. He has had only two games where he has been over that total this year, but he has also hit at least 70 total rushing yards and receiving in all five games.
That means that the floor is there, but he just might need a boost to reach his ceiling. The Chiefs defense seems uniquely capable of providing that boost. Kansas City is allowing 5.2 yards per carry and are 30th in the league in rushing yardage defense to this point in the 2021 campaign.
On top of that, their inferior play at linebacker and safety allows pass-catching running backs some excellent momentum as well. Gibson doesn’t run a lot of routes, but what ones he does in this game are likely to be efficient. Take Gibson going over that mark for a return of near even money.
Cardinals RB James Conner: Under 46.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards Against Browns
Don’t be fooled here by the fact that the Cardinals are listed as being a Top 10 running team in many categories. Those figures are boosted by the fact that Kyler Murray is so elusive and dangerous as a runner from the quarterback position. It’s not because Conner has been efficient as the team’s co-lead back.
Conner has averaged only 3.2 yards per carry through his first five games, struggling to get any burst much as was the case in his last years in Pittsburgh. And unlike with the Steelers, he is rarely involved in the passing game, with just four catches this season. The Cards usually rely on Chase Edmonds to do the pass-catching out of the backfield.
That leaves Conner trying to run against a defense that allows opponents only 3.4 yards per carry, which is third in the NFL. And game script can also be tricky this week for Arizona as an underdog on the road. It all adds up to Conner having minimal effect from scrimmage and landing below the number given.
Top Wide Receiver and Tight End Prop Bets for Week 6
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: Over 82.5 Receiving Yards Against Redskins (-115)
The Redskins’ defense, as mentioned above, has been disappointing, and safety and linebacker play has been a big part of the problem. That’s why Kelce is in an excellent spot for what would be something of a rebound game for him. Those would be the guys trying to defend Kelce from his tight end position more times than not.
You’re Also Getting a Break on the Yardage Total Because of Some Recency Bias
In his last two contests, Kelce has been well below his normal production rate, coming up with 80 yards combined on 10 receptions. Not only are the catches down, but eight yards per reception is well below what we’ve come to expect from him.
This seems like a game where the Kansas City Chiefs could be looking to feed Kelce early and often as a way to stabilize them through a rough patch. And with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out and Tyreek Hill possibly to follow, all of the targets have to go to somebody. Expect Kelce to have one of those games where his stats look like those of the best wideouts.
Packers WR Randall Cobb: Over 31.5 Receiving Yards Against Bears (-120)
We’re totally aware of the fact that Aaron Rodgers is going to target Davante Adams a ton. And this year he’s been passing a lot more to running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon as a new twist to the offense. But that still leaves some scraps for a second wideout, and Cobb has been that guy the last few weeks.
Cobb was largely a forgotten man through three weeks of the season, catching just four passes and not even getting a target in Week 3. But then he broke out for 69 yards through the air and two scores against Pittsburgh. Although he only had two catches last week, one of them was the key play of the game to set up the Packers’ winning field goal.
A play like that only breeds more confidence in a quarterback, and Rodgers clearly has more confidence in Cobb than he does in Allen Lazard or Robert Tonyan right now. Even if Adams gets his 150 and the running backs chip in another 50 or so, that’s plenty of yardage left for someone else. Cobb should be that guy.
Cowboys WR Amari Cooper: Under 60.5 Receiving Yards Against Patriots (-115)
Cooper started the year off with a monster performance against Tampa Bay on Opening Night, rolling for 13 catches and 139 yards. Since that night, he has caught just 12 passes (exactly three every game) combined. You would think he would have remained a major option with Michael Gallup hurt.
But the Cowboys offense has recommitted themselves to the run since that opener, and the result is that there are far less targets to go around. In addition, Cooper has been dealing with nagging injuries, something that has been an issue for him at times in the past. That would explain his sudden slowdown.
Speaking of slowdowns, look for the Patriots to try to do it to the Cowboys, with short passes and running and a lot of time taken between snaps. That means less plays for Dallas and perhaps less opportunities for Cooper. Even though that number isn’t too high, we’re guessing Cooper won’t get there.
Panthers WR Robby Anderson: Over 40.5 Receiving Yards Against Vikings (-110)
Anderson has undergone a strange disappearing act in this offense. After catching a 57-yard touchdown pass in the opener (his only catch of that game), he has managed just 11 catches in 122 games since. Considering he had nearly 1,100 yards a season ago, it’s a bit hard to figure just what’s happened, other than counterpart D.J. Moore emerging as a star.
But the Minnesota defense could be just the right tonic to get Anderson going once again. While the Vikings are solid at one cover cornerback position with Patrick Peterson locking down, Bashaud Breeland at the other spot has been one of the worst in the league by most metrics. If Peterson follows Moore, that leaves Breeland trying to guard Anderson.
This game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair, one where Anderson is needed throughout the contest in a back-and-forth affair. Anderson is an example of why you can’t just use previous stats to project forward when dealing with individual players prop bets. Think instead of the entire game scenario and you’ll realize that he has an excellent chance of breaking out for the first time this year.
We hope that you have a better idea of how to attack the Week 5 prop bets in the NFL at places to bet sports online. Remember to be decisive with your bets. When you see value, don’t be afraid to pounce and grab it with this Sunday’s slate of NFL action around the league.
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
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