Week 11 of the NFL takes place this weekend and should provide some excellent games and great excitement. The individual performances of some of the NFL’s best will take center stage. You can wager on those performances via NFL player prop bets, and we’re here to tell you the best ones for this week.
Player props provide a different way to profit from your NFL knowledge than you might have considered. Deciding whether a player will go over or under a specific statistical level can be easier than picking winners. That’s especially true in what’s been an unpredictable season so far this year in the NFL.
The word of the day: Parity @TaranKillam and Blitzy break down the meaning. With the amount of upsets lately we can ask – can there be too much "parity" in the NFL? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/i3UJJQ3vG3
In the following article, we’ll deliver the top prop bets for Week 11. We’ll go through the best bets for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, giving you both overs and unders. At the end of it, you’ll have some interesting choices to make when you make your wagers at top NFL gambling sites.
Top Week 11 NFL Quarterback Prop Bets
Bears QB Justin Fields: Over 214.5 Passing Yards (-115) Against Ravens
After starting his career in ugly fashion with some poor statistical performances, the rookie from Ohio State has begun to find his footing. That has coincided with the fact that he’s been able to get out of the pocket more, thanks to more liberal play-calling from the Bears braintrust.
In his last game two weeks ago against Pittsburgh, Fields posted a career high 291 yards through the air. Granted, the Steeler defense isn’t what it used to be. But that was still a solid effort from a guy who hadn’t thrown for any more than 209 yards in a single game up to that point this season.
It also should help Fields that the Bears are coming off a bye week, giving him more practice time as the starter, something that can only improve his fortunes. The Ravens defense had several breakdowns against Miami in their upset loss last Thursday night. A few more of those and Fields might just post another career-high in passing yards.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: Over 203.5 Passing Yards (-115) Against Saints
Hurts has posted just one game in his last six where he has passed for more than 200 yards. You would think that would earmark him for the under in this game. The tailing off of his passing yardage has been directly influenced by Philadelphia’s sudden interest in the run game, with Boston Scott, Jordan Howard, and Hurts himself all carving out big chunks on the ground.
But the Saints defensive stats will tell you all you need to know about where their strengths are. New Orleans is #1 in the league in defensive yards per rush and rushing yards. As much as Philly would like to establish the run, they might have to abandon it against a Saints front that just doesn’t allow that to happen.
On the other hand, New Orleans’ pass defense hasn’t been able to stop anybody of late. They’ve dropped all the way to 26th in the league in defensive passing yards. Hurts should be funneled into throwing the ball maybe more than the Eagles would like, but that should lead to solid stats at the end of the day.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Over 311.5 Passing Yards (-115) Against Cowboys
One of the top matchups of the week is shaping up to be ones where points are going up on the board at a rapid rate. The Cowboys defense is perhaps the most improved single unit of any in the league from this year to last. But they have had issues at times against the pass when the pass rush doesn’t get there.
Mahomes, meanwhile, has struggled through much of the season getting the ball downfield. But last week against the Raiders he seemed to find his groove all at once again. After going three straight games under 300 yards, he rolled it up to 406 passing yards against a Raider pass defense that had been one of the best in the league.
Most 300-yard passing games in 1st 5 years in #NFL…
The Kansas City Chiefs QB seemed to unlock his connection with star tight end Travis Kelce once again, and the middle of the Dallas defense is where they’re most vulnerable. Don’t be surprised if Tyreek Hill has his first bomb pass reception in quite some time either. Kansas City got untracked last week, and the floodgates should start to open once again.
49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115) Against Jaguars
Garoppolo is coming off one of the best games of his career in the win against Los Angeles. He made throws into tight windows and stayed in the pocket under pressure to deliver strikes. Jimmy G. has long since put away the challenge of rookie Trey Lance, who never got on the field on Monday night.
So why would we then decide to fade him here by taking the under?
Well, the problem is that the game script could look a lot like it did against the Rams when the Niners take on Jacksonville. They’ll likely throw effectively early, only to back off into ball protection mode once a solid lead is established.
Look for the Niners to be taking the air out of the ball by the third quarter in this game, as they are playing well of late. Jacksonville has shown some life, but they might not have the personnel to hang with the Niner running game. That means Garoppolo won’t have to do too much, leaving him with the under.
Jaguars QB Travis Lawrence: Under 227.5 Passing Yards (-115) Against 49ers
Many of the game conditions that made Garoppolo a fade will affect Lawrence negatively as well, albeit in a different way. The concern in this case is that the rookie just doesn’t get the opportunities. San Fran showed how they can control the ball against the Rams, and the Jags defense is nowhere near as stout as the Rams.
In addition, Lawrence’s prospects continue to be dimmed by a lack of receiving options. Injuries to Travis Etienne (preseason) and D.J. Chark (a few games in) robbed him of explosive playmakers. Laviska Shenault hasn’t developed, while Marvin Jones Jr. is steady but far from spectacular as an overall threat.
In recent weeks, Lawrence has turned to unlikely sources like Dan Arnold and Jamal Agnew to try and manufacture something offensively. That’s going to be tough against San Fran, who also will likely cause problems for him with their Joey Bosa-led pass rush. Lawrence will see better days in the future, but right now even a modest over/under total seems steep with this team.
Raiders QB Derek Carr: Under 285.5 Passing Yards (-115) Against Bengals
We understand the fact that the Bengal pass defense has struggled mightily in recent games. The likes of Mike White and Baker Mayfield tore them up in their recent losing streak. But the bye week came at a good time for them, and they should be able to regroup and patch up some of the leaks that they’ve sprung in those games.
Meanwhile, Carr seemed to be set up for a monster game last Sunday night against the Chiefs porous pass defense. But 261 yards, much of it when the game didn’t matter, was somewhat disappointing. And it feels like it might be a harbinger of things to come for him, considering all that’s happened with Vegas.
They are now very thin in the receiving corps and lack the kind of deep threat to keep defenses honest. That should allow a team like Cincinnati to throw their focus on underneath guys like Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, the two biggest Raider threats. We’re guessing that Carr fails to get his usual gaudy stats in this one, and perhaps from this point forward.
Top Week 11 NFL Running Back Prop Bets
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Eliiott: Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Against Chiefs
It’s always a good idea to look at the entirety of a team’s statistical profile deciding on NFL player prop bets. In this case, we’re talking about the run defense of the Kansas City Chiefs. At first glance, it looks pretty good, as they are currently ninth in the league in yards against, with opponents managing just 101.2 per game.
But that stat doesn’t quite capture all the context of it. Opponents carry the ball only 23.5 times a game against Kansas City, which is the fifth-lowest in the league. And the reason for that is that the Chiefs pass defense is so forgiving that teams really don’t always have much of a need to grind it out on the ground.
The yards per carry allowed by KC is a much more mediocre 4.3 yards per tote, only 17th in the league. The Cowboys won’t go away from Elliott, especially because they want to control the ball and keep it out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes. They might not be able to do that entirely, but it should be enough to get Elliott well over that number.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon: Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120) Against Raiders
It feels like a good week to pile on against the Raiders, as it feels like a team that could be unraveling. And if that’s the case, the game script should be rock solid for Mixon. He has been a hard guy to predict from week to week, but this seems like a spot where he might be able to put forth one of his “up” weeks.
The Bengals Might Also Want to Get Back to Basics After Struggling in Those Previous Two Games
While all of their weapons on the outside are certainly enticing, it gets them in situations where they give up the ball quickly. And considering the way that their defense has been playing, that isn’t necessarily a good thing.
Instead, look for Mixon to be more of a workhorse like he was in the early weeks of the season. He had 29 and 20 carries in those first two games, and he hasn’t hit that 20 marker since. After having a week to think about it, look for Coach Zac Taylor to give it to Mixon often so that the Raiders ace pass rushing ends don’t draw a bead on quarterback Joe Burrow.
Bears RB David Montgomery: Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (+100) Against Ravens
With even money odds, you’re getting a little bit more oomph out of this bet than if you take the over. And it feels like you’d be on the winning side. Montgomery might have a hard time getting to a number that might seem modest at first glance, but really isn’t when you consider all the circumstances.
First of all, the Ravens are much better suited to stop the run than shut down the pass. Baltimore opponents run the ball fewer than any other team. And the Ravens are efficient in stopping that run when it happens, giving up just 4.2 yards per carry (10 in the league) and 88.2 rushing yards per game (4th.)
In Montgomery’s first game back after a month-long injury, he carried it just 13 times. Rookie Khalil Herbert, who had filled in for Montgomery while he was hurt, stayed in the mix. Without volume and with the Ravens keeping him to a low yards per catch, it’s going to be tough for him to get to the number above.
Top Week 11 Wide Receiver Prop Bets
Saints WR Deonte Harris: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Against Eagles
For much of this season, the New Orleans Saints have had question marks about who is going to catch the ball. Lately, they’ve also been wondering who should be throwing it to them as well. That’s why it might seem risky to cast your lot with anybody in the Saints pass-catchers not named Alvin Kamara (if he returns from injury, which seems likely.)
Little by little, however, Harris has started to work his way into a position of trust among the receivers. Because of his smaller stature and punt returner’s stop-and-start ability, he is solid in the slot. But he can also be used on fly patterns because of his excellent overall speed.
In the last two weeks, he has totaled 136 receiving yards, tops among all New Orleans receivers. We are seeing more and more of these hybrid type players be utilized with effectiveness in 2021. Against a Philadelphia secondary lacking foot speed, Harris should be able to find open spaces and make some plays to go over the number.
Raiders WR Bryan Edwards: Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Against Bengals
We mentioned above that we don’t think that Derek Carr is going to carve out a monster passing game in this one. But Edwards doesn’t bring that big a piece of the pie to reach the number above. And the second-year player just might be ready to step up and be more of a factor in the Raider passing game.
At some point, he really has no choice, because Carr is lacking outside targets. We know that he likes to dump underneath to guys like Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. But Carr has also shown more of a willingness to throw it down the field, and without Henry Ruggs, Edwards is the best candidate to step into that role.
We saw a bit of that last week against the Chiefs when Edwards piled up 88 yards through the air, which was just a yard off his career high. He only caught three passes to get to that mark, showing his big play ability. Add in the fact that the Bengals outside corners have been really having a hard time of it, and it could be a great game for an Edwards breakout.
Cowboys WR Michael Gallup: Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Against Chiefs
Gallup came back from an injury that had kept him out since Week 1 to get his feet wet against Atlanta in the Cowboys blowout last week. The results weren’t overwhelming, as he caught 3 passes on 5 targets for 42 yards receiving. Oddsmakers have pretty much duplicated that number for the over/under line here.
You would think that Gallup would start to get a little bit more run against the Chiefs on Sunday. And that pass defense is quite forgiving, especially considering that they’ll be focused on CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Gallup might be a bit overlooked, especially if the Chiefs are looking at this season’s game tape.
Gallup is still going to be a highly volatile producer from week to week because of the types of patterns that he runs in most games. They are not high percentage passes by any stretch. But the Cowboys-Chiefs matchup has all the makings of one of those last score-wins games, a shootout that can even allow secondary pieces like Gallup to shine.
Eagles WR Devonta Smith: Under 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Against Saints
As we mentioned, we are bullish on the passing game of the Philadelphia Eagles overall this week. But the talented rookie Smith, coming off a two-touchdown game in Philly’s dominant win over Denver, might have a hard time breaking out. And that’s because he could see a lot of Saints corner Marshon Lattimore.
We’ve seen Lattimore do a lot of damage to the receiving prospects of go-to guys like Mike Evans over the years. He isn’t 100 percent by any stretch, as there have been guys who have had his number. But as a rookie, Smith might have a hard time dealing with the physical coverage that Lattimore tends to dole out.
Philly does do a nice job of moving Smith around the formation, which could help. But we’ve seen the Saints eaten up by secondary receivers in recent weeks. That means that Smith, as the #1 passing option for Jalen Hurts, might have to take a statistical back seat to some of the others catching passes for the Eagles on Sunday.
Jaguars WR Laviska Shenault: Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Against 49ers
We’ve already detailed our concerns with the Jaguar passing game in general against a Niner team with a great pass rush and a ball-controlling offense. Shenault certainly gets knocked down a notch by all that as well. In truth, you don’t need to find any reasons to fade him at this point, because the numbers haven’t been there in any game of late.
Part of the problem is that he has been in and out of the Jaguar game plan from week to week, with targets fluctuating all over the map. The Jaguars used him last year on a lot of short passes near the line of scrimmage. But they’ve tried to make him more of a downfield guy this year with D.J. Chark out, and it hasn’t worked that well.
Shenault is catching just 61 percent of the passes thrown his way this year, down from 73 a year ago. But the bigger problem is that he’s not doing much with them, as his yards per catch is stagnant from last season as well (10.2 yards per catch, down a tenth from 10.3) Without efficiency, he just isn’t going to have much of a shot against San Fran, even with the low over/under line.
We hope that you can find some prop bets that you love out of the choices we’ve given you here for Week 11 of the NFL season. The best sports gambling sites will likely have odds similar to these. Commit to the picks you love and you’ll win your share of props in the long run.
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h ...
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