Betting Trends for the Top Ten Games in College Football Week 4

Week 4 in college football arrives this weekend with a Saturday afternoon and evening full of fascinating matchups. Who knows what to expect after the wild, unpredictable action of the first three weeks of the season so far?

While there aren’t as many games pitting Top 25 teams against one another, there are still plenty of potentially thrilling contests. In particular, it could be a good week for those teams just outside the top 25 to score victories.

To help you out with the betting angles at top sports gambling websites, we’re going to do some trend-spotting for you. We’ll take a look at the top ten games on this weekend’s slate from a betting angle. That should give you some tips on who to take and who to avoid when you make your picks at top real money college football wagering sites.

Louisiana State at Mississippi State (Saturday at 12 PM ET)

The SEC season begins for two teams looking for a big win to start off conference play. Look for plenty of fireworks when the teams meet up for an early Saturday start.

Each team comes into the game with a 2-1 record. That means that the winner could perhaps have Top 25 intentions in the next few weeks, while the loser might be looking at the bottom half of the SEC for a while.

  • Moneyline: LSU -129, Mississippi State +109
  • Point spread: LSU -2 ½ (-107), Mississippi State +2 ½ (-113)
  • Over/under: Over 55 ½ (-115), Under 55 ½ (-105)

Top Trends

  • Mississippi State has covered the spread in five of their last seven meetings with LSU
  • In the last six LSU games, the over has been the correct wager 83 percent of the time
  • LSU is 8-4 against the spread and outright on the road over the past three seasons
  • In the last dozen Mississippi State games at home, the under has been the correct bet 83 percent of the time
  • The Bulldogs have covered only 33 percent of the time over the last three seasons against teams with a winning record

Missouri at Boston College (Saturday at 12 PM ET)

While many conferences are starting up their conference play on Saturday, there are still some intriguing battles across Power 5 conferences. In this game, Missouri of the SEC heads to Massachusetts to take on Boston College of the ACC.

The Eagles have jumped out to a 3-0 record behind a high-powered passing attack, albeit against weak competition. As for Missouri, they lost a shootout to conference rival Kentucky for their only loss in three tilts so far.

  • Moneyline: Missouri -125, Boston College +105
  • Point spread: Missouri -1 ½ (-110), Boston College +1 ½ (-110)
  • Over/under: Over 58 ½ (-105), Under 58 ½ (-115)

Top Trends

  • It seems a little hard to believe since both schools have playing football for decades, but this will be the first ever game between BC and Missouri
  • Missouri is on a six-game losing streak against the spread coming into this game
  • The Tigers are just 2-8 on the road since 2019 and covered the spread just once in those 10 contests
  • Boston College have covered the spread in five of their last six games when playing at home
  • The Eagles have covered just 33 percent of their nonconference games in the last three seasons of play

Texas Tech at Texas (Saturday at 12 PM ET)

It’s a Longhorn State rivalry and a key early Big 12 battle when the Red Raiders travel to Austin to face the Longhorns. While Texas has the more storied football program, it’s Tech who comes into the game unbeaten at 3-0.

Texas Tech is led by transfer quarterback Tyler Shough, who has been lighting up opponents in the team’s 3-0 start. The Longhorns, still trying to shake off their Week 2 loss to Arkansas, rely on star running back Bijan Robinson.

  • Moneyline: Texas Tech +275, Texas -330
  • Point spread: Texas Tech +7 ½ (-106), Texas -7 ½ (-114)
  • Over/under: Over 60 ½ (-110), Under 60 ½ (-110)

Top Trends

  • In the last twelve games between the two schools, Texas has gone 10-2 and has covered 67 percent of the time
  • Of the Red Raiders’ last seven games, five have gone under the projected point total
  • Texas Tech has covered the spread in just 30 percent of their last ten road games and has won only one of those road battles
  • Texas has covered five of their last six games dating back to the end of last season
  • The Longhorns are two games under .500 against the spread since 2019

#12 Notre Dame vs. #18 Wisconsin (Saturday at 12 ET)

In one off the week’s premiere matchups, the Fighting Irish and the Badgers meet on a neutral field at Soldier Field Chicago. This looks like Notre Dame’s toughest opponent so far after winning three games in a row to start the season.

As for the Badgers, they’ve righted the ship after their hard-luck loss to start the season against Penn State. A win in this one could vault them right back into Top 10 consideration and get them rolling as they resume their Big Ten schedule.

  • Moneyline: Notre Dame +193, Wisconsin -223
  • Point spread: Notre Dame +6 ½ (-110), Wisconsin -6 ½ (-110)
  • Over/under: Over 46 (-110), Under 46 (-110)

Top Trends

  • The Irish hold an 8-6-2 edge in the series, which hasn’t been contested since 1964
  • Notre Dame has won four of its last five games against Big Ten teams
  • The Irish are 3-2 against the spread as an underdog since 2019, but they’ve won only one of those games outright
  • Wisconsin games have gone under six of the last seven occasions
  • The Badgers have not only won five of their last six nonconference games, but they’ve also covered at a 5-1 rate as well

#9 Clemson at North Carolina State (Saturday at 3:30 PM ET)

ACC action heats up with this crucial contest featuring what could be the top two teams in the Atlantic Division. Clemson has struggled so far this season offensively in their 2-1 start, which includes their disappointing opening loss to Georgia.

The Wolfpack suffered a disappointing road loss to Mississippi State in Week 2. Their offense also had a hard time getting going in that one, meaning that this could be a defensive slugfest.

  • Moneyline: Clemson -370, North Carolina State +300
  • Point spread: Clemson -9 ½ (-120), North Carolina State +9 ½ (+100)
  • Over/under: Over 47 ½ (-110), Under 47 ½ (-110)

Top Trends

  • Clemson has won the last eight games between the schools, but each team has covered four time against the spread in those eight contests
  • The Tigers are 0-3 against the spread to start the 2021 season
  • As a road favorite since 2019, Clemson is 8-1 overall and 6-3 against the spread
  • The Wolfpack have covered 75 percent of the time in their last eight conference games
  • NC State has covered the spread two-thirds of their last 15 games at home in Raleigh

#7 Texas A&M vs. #16 Arkansas (Saturday at 3:30 PM ET)

This probably didn’t seem like a top matchup when the 2021 college football season began. But that changed when Arkansas started the season off 3-0, including a stunning upset win over Texas.

As for the Aggies, they’ve taken care of business by winning their first three games, albeit in somewhat unimpressive matter so far. It’s the SEC opener for both teams and takes place on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

  • Moneyline: Texas A&M -195, Arkansas +170
  • Point spread: Texas A&M -5 (-110), Arkansas +5 (-110)
  • Over/under: Over 46 ½ (-110), Under 46 ½ (-110)

Top Trends

  • The Aggies have won nine in a row in the series, but the Razorbacks have covered the spread as an underdog the last three games between the two
  • Texas A&M has covered five of their last six games dating to last season
  • As a favorite of between 3 ½ and 7 points, Texas A&M is 6-1 overall and against the spread the last three years
  • In their last 15 games, Arkansas has covered against the spread 80 percent of the time
  • Arkansas has covered only two of their last seven games against teams with a winning record over the past three seasons

#24 UCLA at Stanford (Saturday at 6 PM ET)

The Pac-12 has been a bit of a mess so far this season, but maybe this matchup between 2-1 games can provide some clarity. UCLA looked like it was in for a big year after beating LSU, but they face-planted in losing to Fresno State.

Stanford has started the year off with three straight games against Power 5 schools. After losing the opener to Kansas State, the Cardinal have bounced back with two straight wins, including a dominativng victory over USC in the conference opener.

  • Moneyline: UCLA -190, Stanford +165
  • Point spread: UCLA -4 ½ (-108), Stanford +4 ½ (-112)
  • Over/under: Over 58 ½ (-108), Under 58 ½ (-112)

Top Trends

  • In the last 13 games between these two schools, Stanford is 12-1 overall and 10-2-1 against the spread
  • Four of UCLA’s last five contests have gone over the projected points total
  • UCLA has covered 56 percent of the time on the road since 2019
  • Dating back to last year, the Cardinal have covered five of their last six games
  • Stanford is just 4-8 both overall and against the spread over the past three seasons as an underdog

Tennessee at #11 Florida (Saturday at 7 PM ET)

Josh Heupel’s first year as coach at Tennessee has been up and down so far. While they dominated against a pair of lesser schools, they lost their lone Power 5 test to Pitt (who then went out and lost their next game.)

Florida is also 2-1, but their one loss was their most impressive performance. Coming off their heartbreaking defeat against #1 Alabama, the Gators will look to get right in this one.

  • Moneyline: Tennessee +750, Florida -1200
  • Point spread: Tennessee +19 (-110), Florida -19 (-110)
  • Over/under: Over 63 (-110), Under 63 (-110)

Top Trends

  • Florida has dominated this series to the tune of 15 wins in the last 16 meetings, although the Volunteers have at least covered three of the last five against the Gators
  • Tennessee has struggled against the spread since last season, going 3-8 in efforts to cover in their last 11 games
  • The Vols have covered five of their last nine games on the road
  • Four of Florida’s last five games against SEC East teams have gone under the points total
  • The Gators are 8-3-1 against the spread over the past three seasons when playing at home in Gainesville

Nebraska at #20 Michigan State (Saturday at 7 PM ET)

The Cornhuskers have been disappointing so far with a 1-2 start as Coach Scott Frost’s seat gets hotter. But they are at least coming off a spirited effort in a loss to Top 5 Oklahoma.

The Spartans have been one of the season’s early surprises, going 3-0 and coming off a big win over Miami (FLA). Running back Kenneth Walker has sparked the resurgence with monster stats through the first three weeks of the year.

  • Moneyline: Nebraska +170, Michigan State -195
  • Point spread: Nebraska +5 (-112), Michigan State –5 (-108)
  • Over/under: Over 52 (-110), Under 52 (-110)

Top Trends

  • Nebraska is 7-2 against Michigan State since 1995 and covered the spread in eight of those nine games
  • The Cornhuskers have covered four of their last five games dating back to last season
  • Nebraska has covered just 33 percent of its conference games since 2019
  • Five of the last six games played by Michigan State have gone over
  • The Spartans have covered the spread in just 25 percent of their home games in the last three seasons

West Virginia at #4 Oklahoma (Saturday at 7:30 PM ET)

In this Big 12 battle, Oklahoma is searching for the decisive victory that has eluded them to this point. Although they’ve started the season 3-0, it hasn’t been without some close calls against opponents against whom they were heavily favored.

West Virginia has to feel emboldened by the Sooners’ close calls, but it will still be a tall task to pull off the road upset. The Mountaineers have started the season 2-1, with their lone loss coming in a Week 1 shootout to Maryland but with an upset victory over Virginia Tech last week.

  • Moneyline: West Virginia +580, Oklahoma -800
  • Point spread: West Virginia +17 (-110), Oklahoma -17 (-110)
  • Over/under: Over 56 ½ (-110), Under 56 ½ (-110)

Top Trends

  • Oklahoma has won eight straight over West Virginia and are 5-0-1 in the last six against the spread over the Mountaineers
  • In the last 13 games in conference for West Virginia, the over has come in four times and the under nine times
  • The Mountaineers are a game over .500 against the spread in Big 12 games over the past three years
  • Although they’ve started the year 1-2 against the spread, Oklahoma has covered 8 of its last 11 games overall
  • Oklahoma has won 13 of its last 14 home games, but there are only 7-7 against the spread in those contests

Conclusion

We hope that these trends point help you out with your wagers for this weekend’s college football action. If the early part of the season is any indication, expect the unexpected when you make your wagers on all of Saturday’s action.

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Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog. For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a harness racing establishment near his home. He spends as much time as possible with his wife Marie and daughter Daniele, both of whom are used to hearing his long-winded monologues about either the struggles of his Fantasy baseball team or which Beatles song is definitively the best.

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