Is There Betting Value in the Race for the Premier League Golden Boot?

By in Sports & Betting on
6 Minute Read

The Premier League’s title race may be all but over, but there is still the matter of the Golden Boot to sort out. Liverpool seem to have a stranglehold on the club’s first-ever Premier League trophy, but the race to win England’s highest individual honor is just getting started.

There are currently 6 players in the league with 14 or more goals in the league this season. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Jamie Vardy are the co-leaders with 17 tallies apiece, while Sergio Aguero (16), Danny Ings (15), Marcus Rashford (14) and Mohamed Salah (14) aren’t far behind.

The campaign still has 11 games to go, which means those trailing the leaders still have plenty of time to make up some ground. Bovada is keeping tabs on the leaders as the Premier League campaign begins to wind to a close.

Below are the updated odds to win the 2019-20 Premier League Golden Boot:

Player Golden Boot Odds
Sergio Aguero +225
Jamie Vardy +300
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +300
Mohamed Salah +600
Danny Ings +1400
Sadio Mane +2000
Raul Jimenez +4000
Tammy Abraham +4000
Raheem Sterling +6600
Gabriel Jesus +8000
Marcus Rashford +10000
Roberto Firmino +10000
Teemu Pukki +10000
Anthony Martial +10000
Kevin De Bruyne +10000

Vardy’s Pace Slowing

Vardy started the season on fire, but the Leicester City striker has been off the mark in recent games. The England international scored all 17 of his goals through his first 18 domestic appearances of the season, but he has failed to find the back of the net ever since. Vardy’s goal-less streak has reached the 2-month mark. The last time he scored was against Manchester City back on December 21.

Jamie Vardy

While he has struggled, the fact that he is still tied for the league lead is obviously a plus. Vardy’s track record also speaks for itself, so it’s safe to assume he will round back into form at some point between now and the end of the season. He’s one of the most proven goal-scorers in Europe.

He has had his opportunities, he just hasn’t been able to capitalize. Vardy hit the post with an effort during the Foxes’ loss to Manchester City last time out, so he’s getting close. It’s hard not to like the +300 Golden Boot odds that have been slapped on the current league leader.

Aubameyang in Flying Form

This hasn’t been a good season for Arsenal, who sacked Unai Emery in December before replacing him with Mikel Arteta. The Gunners have languished outside the top-4 all season long, but their hopes of landing a Champions League spot haven’t been dashed quite yet.

They’re still in the hunt thanks in large part to yet another fantastic season out of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who tied with Sadio Mane and Mo Salah for Golden Boot honors a season ago. Vardy held a sizable 6-goal lead over Aubameyang as recently as Christmas, but PEA has closed that gap incredibly quickly.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

The Guinean has scored 6 times across 8 appearances since then to pull into a tie with the struggling Vardy. Aubameyang bagged 22 goals a season ago, and he’s on pace to break his own personal Premier League record this term.

Given their respective forms, I’d lean toward betting on Aubameyang before I’d take a shot on Vardy at the same +300 odds.

Aguero Leads the Pack

Sergio Aguero is arguably the most decorated goal-scorer in the English top flight. While the Manchester City talisman only has one Premier League Golden Boot on his resume (2014-15), the Argentine has finished near the top of the league in scoring just about every year.

Sergio Aguero

Aguero finished just behind the 3 league-leaders a season ago with 21 goals. 2 years ago, he finished third with another 21 tallies. He finished fourth in 2016-17, second in 2015-16 and fourth in 2013-14. Aguero is a goals machine.

That impressive track record explains why Aguero is the betting favorite to take home the hardware this season despite currently trailing Vardy and Aubameyang on the league leaderboard.

He’s only one off the pace, but he has also run into a dry spell of his own. Aguero has come up empty in each of his last 4 league matches, and before that he had scored just once in 5 appearances. He had a penalty saved in City’s win over Leicester at the weekend, as well.

Liverpool’s Trio Lurks

Liverpool are set to lift the Premier League trophy for the first time ever, but the club’s trio of star attackers is struggling to keep pace with the league’s scoring leaders. Mo Salah, who has won the Golden Boot in each of the last 2 years, is 3 behind Vardy and Aubameyang with 14 strikes to his name.

Liverpool Players

Mane, who shared the honors with Salah and Aubameyang last season, is sitting on 12 goals, while Roberto Firmino has scored 8 times. It’s safe to write off Firmino (+10000) considering he’s already 9 behind the league leaders, while Mane will have to pile them up in a hurry if he has aspirations of winning the trophy in back-to-back seasons.

Salah (+600) makes for the obvious value bet considering he’s still in prime position. The Egyptian is known to score goals in bunches, and one particularly productive afternoon will get Salah right back into the race. With 11 games left in the season, I have no issues with taking a shot on Salah given the favorable +600 odds.

Ings Among the Leaders

Former Liverpool striker Danny Ings is making the most of his time leading the line for Southampton. The England international, who is fully healthy for what feels like the first time in years, has quietly put 15 goals on the board for the Saints thus far.

Danny Ing

The goals don’t flow as easily for Southampton as they do for some of the teams near the top of the league table, but Ings has been remarkably efficient. He has already scored twice as many goals as he did last season with still about a third of the campaign left to play. Ings has helped Southampton get all the way up to 12th in the standings after spending most of the year near the relegation zone.

Premier League betting sites aren’t bullish on Ings’ chances of catching the current league leaders, but the +1400 odds are admittedly alluring.

Bet on Salah, Aguero or Aubameyang

With so much time left in the season, there is still plenty of value to be had if you’re betting on the Premier League’s heated race for the Golden Boot. The absence of the injured Harry Kane, who has won the award twice, opens things up for the rest of the field.

Given Vardy’s ragged form, I’m inclined to prefer Aubameyang to best him at identical +300 odds. Betting on Aguero offers comparable upside at +225, but I’d rather take the extra profit potential that comes with Aubameyang.

If you want even more upside, Salah is right there at +600. Liverpool won’t relent in their hunt for the title, so I’d expect the Egyptian to enjoy no shortage of opportunities down the stretch of the campaign.

If you’re looking for safety, opt for Aguero or Aubameyang. If you want to shoot for the moon, I like Salah quite a bit at +600.

Picks to Win the Golden Boot:

Sergio Aguero +225

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang +300

Mohamend Salah +600

Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

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