Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Betting Preview, Odds, Props and Picks

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Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Kevin Harvick

On Sunday, July 5th, NASCAR will hold its 16th race of the season live from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway as drivers look to celebrate the holiday weekend with a win in the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400.

The name of this race may change yearly, but it will always be remembered as the Brickyard 400, which was the name for the first 10 years of this event.

Currently, Kevin Harvick leads the drivers in the standings and is also pegged as the odds on favorite to win this Sunday according to NASCAR betting sites. He’s followed closely by Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. round out the Top 5 betting favorites.

Race Profile

The Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS) is the most popular racetrack in the world. In fact, it’s also a National Historic Landmark and listed on the National Register of Historic Places. NASCAR joined other racing leagues in 1994 with their first event at this famous raceway.

Since then, NASCAR has run annual races at IMS, which is a traditional rectangular oval track with a lap distance of 2.5 miles. The two long straightaways are 5/8 of a mile long, the two short straightaways (short chutes) are 1/8 mile long, and the four corners are ¼ mile long with 9.2 degree banking.

The Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 breaks down as follows:

  • Total Miles: 400 miles
  • Total Laps: 160 laps
  • Stage 1: First 50 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 50 laps
  • Final Stage: Remaining 60 laps

The Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 is set to begin at 4 PM ET and will air live on NBC.

What to Watch for at Indianapolis

With all of the excitement heading into this historic tripleheader weekend, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on:

  • Can Jimmie Johnson tie Jeff Gordon’s all-time win mark?
  • Will we see a first time winner on Sunday?
  • Can Kevin Harvick win a second straight IMS NASCAR race?
  • Will Kyle Busch finally win a race in 2020?
  • Can Hendrick Motorsports get back into the IMS winner circle?
  • IndyCar and NASCAR holding races at IMS on the same day.

Previous Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Winners

As mentioned, the first race at this hallowed track was in 1994 and won by Jeff Gordon in a grueling battle with Dale Earnhardt Sr. who would win in 1995. Gordon also holds the record for the most wins (5) and every other major stat like Top 5s, Top 10s, laps led and more.

The following is a list of winners dating back to 2000:

  • Bobby Labonte in 2000
  • Jeff Gordon in 2001, 2004, 2014
  • Bill Elliott in 2002
  • Kevin Harvick in 2003, 2019
  • Tony Stewart in 2005, 2007
  • Jimmie Johnson in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012
  • Jamie McMurray in 2010
  • Paul Menard in 2011
  • Ryan Newman in 2013
  • Kyle Busch in 2015, 2016
  • Kasey Kahne in 2017
  • Brad Keselowski in 2018

Kevin Harvick is the reigning champ of this race as he won it last year. He joins Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch as the only active drivers with a win in this race. Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch are the only drivers who have won this race two years in a row.

NASCAR Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Betting Odds

The following NASCAR betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Kevin Harvick (+425)
  • Denny Hamlin (+450)
  • Kyle Busch (+500)
  • Brad Keselowski (+800)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (+800)
  • Ryan Blaney (+900)
  • Joey Logano (+1000)
  • Chase Elliott (+1200)
  • Erik Jones (+2500)
  • Clint Bowyer (+2800)
  • Kurt Busch (+2800)
  • William Byron (+2800)
  • Alex Bowman (+3300)
  • Aric Almirola (+3300)
  • Matt DiBenedetto (+3300)
  • Jimmie Johnson (+4000)
  • Christopher Bell (+8000)
  • Matt Kenseth (+8000)
  • Tyler Reddick (+8000)
  • Austin Dillon (+10000)
  • Cole Custer (+10000)
  • Darrell Wallace Jr. (+10000)
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+10000)
  • Ryan Newman (+10000)

Betting Favorites for the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 on Sunday, July 5th:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kevin Harvick 2 7 13 12.1 8.9 0
Denny Hamlin 0 5 8 13.9 12.4 0
Kyle Busch 2 5 11 14.6 12.5 2
Brad Keselowski 1 2 5 11.2 13.8 1
Martin Truex Jr. 0 1 3 19.3 21.3 3

Kevin Harvick (+425)

It’s easy to see why Harvick is the betting favorite for this race. In fact, let’s just declare him as the driver to beat on Sunday.

Harvick has extended his lead atop the driver standings to 52 points over second place Ryan Blaney. Harvick snapped his winless streak at Pocono last weekend as he won the first of two races at the track. He also finished runner up in the second Pocono race, which took place last Sunday.

Harvick’s win and subsequent runner up finish have given him the 2nd most wins in the series, the most Top 10s, and the most Playoff Points through the first 15 races of the 2020 season.

And, if that weren’t enough to make you want to wager on the #4 car this Sunday, Harvick is the reigning champ of this race having won it last year. He’s also one of only five active drivers to have a victory at this track and he’s never crashed out.

In 19 starts at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Harvick has two wins, seven Top 5s, 13 Top 10s and an 8.9 average finish which is the best among active drivers.

Harvick has a six race streak of finishing in the Top 8 and a two race streak of finishing in the Top 4. He led laps in the last two races at this track and is clearly the best active NASCAR driver at IMS today.

Harvick is a slam dunk to finish in the Top 10 (-455) and a good bet for the Top 5 (-134) as well. His Top 3 odds are listed at +115, which offers some nice betting value.

There’s no question that Harvick will run well on Sunday. The only question is whether or not another driver can beat him.

Denny Hamlin (+450)

If we’re strictly looking at this season to date, then Denny Hamlin is the one driver that could give Harvick the most trouble this weekend.

Hamlin leads the Cup Series with four wins, nine Top 5s, and is just two Playoff Points behind Harvick. Hamlin edged out Harvick in the second Pocono race to capture his second win in the last four races.

Over that span, he also has a 4th place finish and a 2nd place result which came to Harvick in the first Pocono race, which took place last Saturday. Hamlin currently sits 5th in the standings, but is only eight points behind 3rd place driver Brad Keselowski.

In 14 races at IMS, Hamlin has yet to win a race. However, he does have five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, zero crashes and a 12.4 average finish which is the 4th best among active drivers.

In his last eight IMS races, Hamlin has six Top 6 finishes. Hamlin was 6th last year and 3rd in 2018, which tied the mark for his career best finish that he also accomplished in 2014 and 2008.

With the way Hamlin has run this year, he could be the best bet for a first time winner at this track. Additionally, he’s a shoe-in for the Top 10 (-360). His odds of -106 for a Top 5 finish and +135 for a Top 3 finish are appealing as well.

Along with Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin is in championship form and he will be one of the best cars on Sunday by time it’s all said and done.

Kyle Busch (+500)

Count me in the group of people concerned about Kyle Busch this season. So far, he hasn’t won a race and sits 11th in the standings with just eight Top 10s in 15 races. This is certainly a slump that makes it hard for bettors to feel confident in.

Last week, I once again made the foolish mistake of picking Kyle Busch over his teammate Denny Hamlin for the second time in the last four races. In fact, I even said that I hope Busch and Hamlin don’t make me look silly again. Well, they did and it’s a mistake that I won’t make again in 2020.

Like the last few tracks, Kyle Busch has had success at IMS. He’s won two of the last five races. In 15 starts, he also has five Top 5s, 11 Top 10s which is 3rd best among active drivers, 2 DNFs which were in the last three races, and a 12.5 average finish which is 5th best among drivers.

Typically, I would feel good about Busch at a track like this. But, there are too many concerns for me to pick Busch to win this race.

First, he’s in a 15 race winless drought and hasn’t looked like the defending champ all season long. Second, he’s crashed out of this event twice in the last three races. These are two factors that I can’t ignore.

Busch is also listed with the following odds: Top 10 (-335), Top 5 (-106), and Top 3 (+150).

I don’t like any of Kyle Busch’s odds for this weekend’s race. I believe his winning odds are overvalued and I don’t feel comfortable with betting on the #18 car to have a Top 5 or Top 3 finish. Furthermore, his odds for a Top 10 result, which I think he will get, have no value at all.

In other words, Kyle Busch is a driver to avoid this weekend other than a Top 10 finish. What’s funny, as I write him off, this could be the weekend that he actually gets his first win of the season, which would be hilarious.

Brad Keselowski (+800)

Brad Keselowski enters this weekend’s race sitting 3rd in the standings. He’s one of four drivers with at least two wins on the season, is 3rd in Playoff Points, and is tied with Hamlin for the 2nd most Top 10s with 10.

Last weekend, Keselowski finished 9th and 11th in Pocono, which bumped him up from 5th to 3rd in the driver standings.

Keselowski is one of the five active drivers who have won at IMS as he took the checkered flag in 2018. Last year, Brad crashed out of the race.

In 10 starts, Keselowski has one win, two Top 5s, five Top 10s, one DNF and a 13.8 average finish, which is the 8th best finish among active drivers.

Keselowski has led laps in seven of his 10 starts at this track. He also finished 2nd in 2017. But, will he be able to outrace Hamlin and Harvick this weekend?

With a 50% Top 10 finishing rate, I like the #2 car to finish in the Top 10 (-275) on Sunday. However, I think his ceiling is a Top 5 (+125) result, but not a Top 3 (+200) finish. In fact, his teammate Joey Logano might fare better this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.  (+800)

Of the racing favorites for this Sunday, Martin Truex Jr. is the one to clearly stay away from. In fact, I would even put Kyle Busch above teammate Truex although the #19 car has a win this year.

The main reasons why I think Truex is someone to avoid is due to his history at IMS and his inconsistent 2020 season so far.

Yes, Martin Truex sits 6th in the driver standings, but his numbers are down across the board. He does have one win, but he also only has an abysmal two Top 5s which is tied with Bowman for the lowest amount among the Top 10 drivers.

His eight Top 10s are what has Truex this high along with other drivers being just as inconsistent like Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, William Byron and Erik Jones.

The stats get even worse for Truex when we look at his career success at IMS. In 15 starts, he has zero wins, one Top 5, and three Top 10s. He also has a 21.3 average finish and 3 DNFs. Truex has crashed out of two races which came in 2017 and 2018. Last year he finished 27th.

Of the Top 10 drivers in the standings, only Alex Bowman has worse numbers. And, of the betting favorites, nobody has worse numbers than Truex.

I don’t see Truex finishing in the Top 5 (+165) or Top 3 (+275). I think Truex will be lucky to crack the Top 10 (-210).

Avoid all of Truex’s betting odds this weekend as he has yet to prove that he can conquer Indianapolis Motor Speedway and his 2020 season doesn’t prompt any confidence that he will break his IMS slump.

The Best Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for this Sunday’s Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and their 2020 season so far:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Joey Logano 0 4 7 11.5 10.9 0
Clint Bowyer 0 4 5 17.4 13.5 1
Jimmie Johnson 4 6 7 117.7 16.5 5
Matt Kenseth 0 9 12 19.3 12.7 2

Joey Logano (+1000)

For 10 of the 15 races, Joey Logano had sat 2nd overall in the standings as he threatened Harvick’s top spot for all of May and half of June. Unfortunately, Logano had a horrible weekend in Pocono as he finished 36th and 24th overall.

That’s an average finish of 30th in two races. It also dropped him all the way down to 6th in the standings, which is the lowest he has been since Las Vegas in Week 2. Even more concerning is that Logano has four finishes in a row that are 17th or worse. Three are 24th or worse.

This is poor driving for the 2018 Cup Series champion. Since NASCAR returned from hiatus, Logano only has four Top 10s in 11 races. If he didn’t win two of the first four races on the season, Logano wouldn’t even be in the Top 10 in the standings.

With that said, I believe Joey Logano will turn things around this weekend in Indianapolis. Logano enters this race with a 10.9 average finish which is 2nd best among active drivers. In 15 starts at IMS, Logano has four Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and has never crashed out of a race at this track.

More importantly, Logano has had a stellar run over the last seven races at this track where his worse finish was 13th in 2018. Over that span, he has six Top 8s and four Top 5s. Last year, Logano finished 2nd overall. His average finish since 2013 is 5.7, which is even better than Kevin Harvick.

I believe Logano is a Top 10 (-275), Top 5 (+125) and possibly even a Top 3 car (+200). I like his odds across the board. I believe his +1000 odds to win the race offers great value. His Top 5 odds are almost as appealing.

Look for the #22 car to battle it out with Harvick and Hamlin on Sunday. He could give Team Penske their second win in the last three Indy races.

Clint Bowyer (+2800)

Two years ago, Clint Bowyer was considered one of the Big 4 in NASCAR as he hung with Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch in the standings. Bowyer won two of the first 15 races on the year and finished 5th at the end of the regular season.

Unfortunately, Bowyer hasn’t won since that season. In fact he’s on a 72 race winless streak. Bowyer has made the Playoffs the last two seasons and is above the cutoff line as of this weekend’s race. He currently sits 13th overall in the standings.

Bowyer had a solid Pocono weekend with 7th and 8th place finishes. Although he didn’t lead any laps, he stayed out of trouble and is still 10th in Playoff Points due to two stage wins and five Top 10s on the year.

I think that Bowyer’s momentum from last weekend will carry over into Indy this weekend where he’s finished 5th in two straight races. In 2018 he even led 37 laps, which is about 23% of the race. Bowyer has three Top 6 finishes in the last five races. His 13.5 average finish is 7th best among active drivers.

I don’t see Bowyer winning the race or finishing in the Top 3 (+650). But, I do see a Top 10 (+105) finish as solid betting value for Bowyer on Sunday. It would take some luck late in the race for Bowyer to get a third straight Top 5 (+380) finish this year.

Jimmie Johnson (+4000)

Another weekend, another racetrack where Jimmie Johnson has some of the best stats among all active drivers. Johnson leads all drivers with four wins at this track and is hoping to tie Jeff Gordon for the all-time record with five wins.

Unfortunately, Johnson is in the midst of a 110 race winless streak that I just don’t see ending this weekend. Johnson hasn’t won at Indy since 2012. In the last three IMS races, he’s crashed twice and has a 16th place result. He has just one Top 10 result in the last six races at Indy.

Last weekend, Johnson averaged an 18.5 finish in the two Pocono races. He currently sits 12th in the driver standings and 12th in Playoff Points. In fact, he’s right behind the Busch brothers in the standings.

With that said, Johnson’s value is in a Top 10 (+120) finish. Somewhere between 6th and 10th. A Top 5 (+450) and Top 3 (+800) finish are most likely out of the question and too risky to wager on.

Matt Kenseth (+8000)

Like with Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth had some success at Pocono last weekend with 11th and 12th place results. Those were his best finishes since Darlington’s first race following the NASCAR hiatus.

Kenseth isn’t a threat to win at Indy this weekend or finish in the Top 3 (+1600) or Top 5 (+850). However, a Top 10 (+190) finish is not out of the question. In fact, I think there’s some value with this option considering Kenseth’s history at this track.

Although Kenseth has never won at IMS he has the most Top 5s (9), second most Top 10s (12) and the 6th best average finish at 12.7. In his last six races at IMS, Matt Kenseth has finished in the Top 12 for all of them and has four Top 5s. He also has a 5.8 average finish over that span.

Those are solid numbers for a driver that could pay a return of nearly double your money with a Top 10 finish this Sunday.

The Top Longshot to Win the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400

Ryan Newman (+10000) is my longshot pick for this race. He sits 24th in the standings, but did miss three races due to his horrific crash at Daytona. Nevertheless, Newman is slowly working his way back into racing form.

I like Newman’s chances this weekend for a Top 10 finish (+250). He’s one of only five active drivers to have won a race at this track. In 19 starts, he has one win, three Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 16.0 average finish.

Yet, it’s his recent success at this track that gives my confidence in his Top 10 value. In his last eight races at Indy, he has two Top 5s, five Top 10s, seven Top 11s, and a 10.25 average finish.

Furthermore, he has three straight Top 10 results with a 7.0 average finish. Newman finished 8th last year, 10th in 2018, and 3rd in 2017.

I like Newman to crack the Top 10, but I don’t see him making it into the Top 5 (+1100) or Top 3 (+2500).

Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Checkered Flag

Winning at Indy is almost as significant as winning at Daytona for NASCAR drivers. It’s one of the Top 5 races that most drivers want to win.

With that said, it’s also a hard place to win at, which is evident by the low number of active drivers with a victory here. That also makes it harder to pick the winner this weekend.

My Top 5 drivers this weekend are Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Clint Bowyer. You may be surprised to see Bowyer instead of a Busch brother, but I like what he’s done here the last two years.

I think this race comes down to Harvick, Hamlin and Logano. Both Harvick and Hamlin won last weekend in Pocono. In fact, they both finished in the Top 2 for both races. So, I see them falling just short of the checkered flag this weekend. They can’t keep winning, can they?

As much as I want to pick Harvick, I think Joey Logano is due for a win at this track. He’s been consistently great at Indy, but hasn’t been able to take the checkered flag. This weekend, I see the #22 car spinning his tires in celebration of winning this race.

My Top 5 Drivers

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Joey Logano
  • Clint Bowyer
  • Brad Keselowski

Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings:

Car Number of Race Winner

  • Even (-235)
  • Odd (+170)

If you look at my Top 5 drivers, four of them are even numbered: Keselowski (2), Harvick (4), Bowyer (14) and Logano (22).

Even my other value plays like Jimmie Johnson (48), Matt Kenseth (42) and Ryan Newman (6) are all even numbers. In fact, an even numbered car has won six of the last eight races. We can now see why the odds heavily favor the “even” option. Go with the trends and take the even.

Car Number of Race Winner –Even (-235)

Car Number of Race Winner

  • Over 11.5 (-120)
  • Under 11.5 (-110)

Over the last few weeks, DraftKings had listed races with an Over/Under at 16.5 or higher. This weekend, they have it at 11.5.

That’s largely due to Kevin Harvick (4) and Denny Hamlin (11) being the huge betting favorites. In addition to those two, I also have in my Top 5 Brad Keselowski (2). My longshot pick of Ryan Newman (6) and a potential Top 10 car Kurt Busch (1) are Under 11.5 as well.

I’m taking Joey Logano to win the race, who’s over 11.5, but I think we should hedge our bets here and go with the option that has more realistic winners and that’s the Under.

Car Number of Race Winner –Under 11.5 (-110)

Manufacturer of Race Winner

  • Ford (+125)
  • Toyota (+150)
  • Chevrolet (+300)

Of the 27 NASCAR races held at this track, Chevy has won 17 of them. In fact, they won 12 straight from 2003 to 2014. However, they only have one win since then and are the longshot this weekend.

Toyota is the second betting favorite, but this manufacturer only has two wins at Indy and those were both by Kyle Busch in 2015 and 2016.

Ford is the favorite as they’ve won the last two races at IMS. Furthermore, four of my Top 5 drivers compete in Fords (everyone, but Hamlin). I think Ford is the smart bet here unless a Joe Gibbs Racing driver like Denny Hamlin or Kyle Busch can outlast the Fords.

Manufacturer of Race Winner –Ford (+125)

Team of Race Winner

  • Joe Gibbs Racing (+150)
  • Team Penske (+275)
  • Stewart-Haas Racing (+300)
  • Hendrick Motor Sports (+500)
  • Any Other Team (+2500)
  • Chip Ganassi Racing (+2200)
  • Richard Childress racing (+5000)
  • Roush Fenway Racing (+5000)
  • JTG Daughtery Racing (+10000)

The three realistic options for this wager are Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing.

I think JGR is overrated with these odds. Yes, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are two of the top three odds on favorites, but they are outnumbered by other teams who have a better shot at winning.

Stewart-Haas Racing (+300) provides the best value as Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer drives for this team. Harvick will be the man to beat on Sunday.

However, I am going with Team Penske (+275) for this prop bet as I have Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano in my Top 5. Furthermore, I have Logano winning the race. Team Penske also has Ryan Blaney who sits 2nd in the driver standings and has been strong over the last month.

Manufacturer of Race Winner –Team Penske (+275)

Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 Betting Recap

Betting Value:

  • Joey Logano (+1000)
  • Clint Bowyer (+2800)
  • Jimmie Johnson (+4000)
  • Matt Kenseth (+8000)

Winner

  • Joey Logano (+1000)

Longshot

  • Ryan Newman (+10000)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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