With the signing of Cam Newton, the New England Patriots have a renewed sense of optimism heading into the 2020 season. Online betting sites also share the optimism as the majority of them improved the Patriots odds for winning Super Bowl 55, the AFC Championship, and the AFC East division.
As for Newton himself, there are numerous prop bets to explore based on Cam’s performance in the 2020 season. Let’s break the huddle and see where the value is with the following Cam Newton prop bets.
Following the departure of Tom Brady, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has been steadfast in his commitment to Jarrett Stidham being the starting QB once the season begins.
Stidham is entering his second year with the Patriots and has already had one full season to grasp the complex offensive system. Furthermore, he’s shown enough progress and talent to make Belichick feel comfortable and confident in him. That’s not an easy task for any football player.
The Patriots doubled down on their commitment to Stidham by not drafting any QBs in the 2020 NFL Draft. It looked like it was going to be smooth sailing for the second year quarterback to lead this team. That was until last week when New England decided to sign Cam Newton.
On the surface, the Newton signing is a big deal for the team if Cam is 100% healthy. Yet, the one year contract has a small base salary and can go up to $7.5 million dollars if Newton hits all of the incentives.
In other words, this was a low risk, high reward opportunity for New England. The contract makes it possible to have Cam as a backup QB if he’s not 100% healthy without overpaying for a #2 quarterback.
In addition to the low financial commitment and Cam’s health, is the fact that he won’t have much time to learn the new system. With health restrictions in place, Newton isn’t able to really immerse himself in the system yet. That could delay his grasp of it and make it easier for Stidham to start in Week 1.
Furthermore, there will only be two preseason games this year which makes it even harder for Newton to overcome Stidham on the depth chart.
For this prop bet, the smart play is on Jarrett Stidham to start Week 1. He also offers better value at +110 odds.
As long as Cam Newton is healthy, I believe at some point he will get the starting job. His dual threat play, leadership and experience are too much to ignore. He needs time to learn the system, prove that he’s healthy and get on the same page with the rest of the team.
Additionally, the Patriots have a tough schedule over the first five weeks. They play the Dolphins, at Seattle, the Raiders, at Kansas City and the Broncos. I see New England going 3-2 at best. However, they could also go 1-4 as the Dolphins always give the Patriots trouble and the Broncos have also improved.
New England’s Bye Week is Week 6, which could be the perfect time to switch QBs. That would give Newton 11 games to start and see what he can do in this system at full health. The smart play is on Newton starting over 8.5 games.
Now that we have established Newton will start over 8.5 games this year, but most likely be the backup QB in Week 1, we can take a look at the following on-field prop bets for Cam:
In his nine year career, Newton has just three seasons where he’s eclipsed the 3,650 yard mark. His rookie year (2011) was Cam’s highest passing total of 4,051 yards.
The last time Newton surpassed this mark was his MVP year (2015) when he threw for 3,837 yards. Newton’s last season where he played all 16 games came in 2017 and he finished with 3,302 yards per game.
For his career, Newton is averaging 232.3 passing ypg. If Cam can hit that mark each game then he will surpass the 3,650 yard mark. With that said, I don’t see Newton accomplishing this.
First, I don’t even see Newton starting all 16 games. I think he will get 10 to 12 starts, which means he will have to throw for at least 300 yards per game, and that won’t happen. Newton’s best average was 253.3 ypg in 2011. Since then, his highest mark was 242.5 ypg in 2018.
With a new system, a young QB ahead of him, and not a lot of time to learn the playbook, I don’t see Newton surpassing 3,000 yards this season. Go with the Under.
In nine seasons, albeit last year was just one game, Newton has only surpassed this total on two occasions: 2011 (17 INTs) and 2017 (16 INTs).
For his career, he has 108 INTs, which breaks down to 0.86 INTs per game. In a full season, that would average out to 13.8 INTs. However, since he won’t start a full season, Newton should come under this total with room to spare.
I believe Newton will throw 10 to 12 INTs at the max and that’s based on the number of starts he will have in 2020.
In his career, Cam Newton has only thrown more than 25 TD passes in one season. Newton threw 35 TDs in his 2015 NFL MVP campaign. He’s finished with 24 TD throws on two occasions.
Newton has 182 career TD passes. He’s averaging 1.45 TDs per game. If he were to play a full 16 games, that would average out to 23.2 TD throws. Since he won’t play a full season this year, I don’t see Newton surpassing the 25 TD total.
Last year, Tom Brady finished the season with 24 TDs. Here’s a QB who knows this system better than anyone. He also had almost the exact same cast as Newton would have this year and Brady still couldn’t surpass 25 TD passes. It was his lowest total since throwing 25 TDs in 2013.
Out of all the Cam Newton on-field prop bets, I feel the most confident in this one. It’s not that he’s incapable of throwing 30+ TDs, it’s just the potential number of starts and the personnel don’t appear in his favor for the upcoming season.
Even with less than 16 starts in the season, this is one total where some bettors might think that Newton could possibly go Over on. He’s eclipsed the 5.5 TD mark five times in his career.
Over his nine seasons, Cam has a total of 58 rushing touchdowns. He had double digit totals in two seasons including 14 during his rookie year and 10 in his NFL MVP season.
Newton’s career average is 0.46 rushing TDs per game. That average would translate into 7.42 rushing TDs for a 16 game season. He would need to start 13 games in 2020 to surpass the 5.5 TD total.
Although Newton’s overall career indicates potential for going over 5.5 rushing touchdowns, I don’t see it happening. There are too many factors working against him this season.
First, Newton’s health is a concern. He’s missed 16 games the last two years. I don’t see the Patriots giving Newton the green light to run the ball a lot especially in goal line or short yardage situations.
When you take last year’s game out of the equation, Newton has only gone over this 5.5 total once in the previous three seasons when he had six in 2017. However, he played in all 16 games. That’s only happened once in the last four years.
The Patriots have plenty of talented running backs to carry the load at the goal line. Brady had a knack for sneaking the ball on short yardage and goal line plays, but his career best mark was four. Last year, with almost the same team, Brady finished with three rushing TDs.
Newton won’t start a full season and probably won’t see more than 12 starts in 2020. I don’t believe he will rush for more than four TDs this year, so go with the Under.
After missing 14 games last season, Cam Newton will certainly be a candidate for the comeback player of the year award. However, he will have some strong competition from the following players:
The odds on favorite to win this award is Ben Roethlisberger who returns to the Pittsburgh Steelers after missing almost all of 2019.
Entering his 17th season, Big Ben is looking to have similar success to his 2018 season where he played 16 games and finished with over 5,100 passing yards, 34 TD passes, and a 67% completion percentage.
Big Ben will have plenty of weapons on offense, a solid offensive line, and the potential to lead this team to a spot in the Playoffs.
Like Cam Newton, Ben’s success this year depends on his health. As of now, Roethlisberger says he is healthy and that this is the best that he’s felt in the last few years.
JJ Watt is one of the most dominating defensive players in the league, provided that he can stay healthy. Watt missed half the season in 2019, which was the third time in the last four years that he’s been injured. Over that span, he’s only played in 16 of 48 games.
Watt will be needed to lead the Houston Texans defense back to prominence especially with the changes on offense. If this team wants to return to the Playoffs, it will need a Top 10 defense and that requires a healthy Watt.
With that said, I have less confidence in JJ Watt than any of the other favorites. Not only has he been injured in three of the last four seasons, but he’s not going to have the same opportunities as QBs to make as big of an impact.
Gronkowski spent all of 2019 enjoying retirement and endeavoring in other ventures. In fact, he even signed a contract with the WWE and hosted WrestleMania 36 this year. However, his WWE stint ended soon after because Gronk decided to return to the NFL and play with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay.
Gronk and Brady are one of the most prolific duos in the history of the NFL. Now, they take their talents to Florida where the two hope to turn the Buccaneers into a Super Bowl winning franchise.
This offense is going to be a lot of fun to watch. As long as Brady can stay healthy and upright, he should put up big numbers with all of the weapons he has. Gronkowski will certainly benefit from the weapons as well, since he won’t be double teamed with Godwin and Evans as receivers.
As long as Gronk can stay healthy, he should put up solid numbers. I expect most of his damage to be in the red zone area as he could surpass 10 TD receptions this year. With that said, I don’t believe it will be enough for Gronkowski to earn this award.
Newton has a shot, but I think his odds are slightly overvalued. Four weeks prior to signing with the Patriots, Cam’s odds were at +1800 which would’ve offered great value. At +400 odds, and no guarantee he will be the starter, these odds are too low to risk a wager on.
In reality, even if Newton is the Week 1 starter, this award will most likely go to Ben Roethlisberger. He has the passing weapons and a Top 10 defense that will give the offense more possessions.
Big Ben’s numbers will surpass anything Newton puts up other than rushing yards and rushing TDs. He knows the offense, is familiar with his teammates, and should be rejuvenated after a year off.
At the beginning of June, Cam Newton’s MVP odds were listed at +5000 with several football betting sites. Now, his odds can be found at a range of +1500 to +3000. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look to see if Newton is worthy of a flier and what his chances are to win the 2020 NFL MVP award:
Mahomes is widely considered to be the best player in the NFL especially at his position. He’s entering his 4th season and already has one NFL MVP trophy on his resume having won it in 2018. Last year, Mahomes missed two games due to injuries and wasn’t able to hang with Lamar Jackson in this race.
However, heading into the 2020 season, Mahomes is once again the sizable betting favorite to capture this award for the second time in his career.
Coming off a Super Bowl victory, the Chiefs and their fanbase are hoping that Mahomes can lead the team back to the Super Bowl and become a repeat winner. They have the talent on both sides of the ball and could end up being the best offense in the league this season.
Expect a healthy Mahomes to surpass his numbers from last year and get closer to the marks he set in 2018.
Just like Mahomes put up a stellar season in 2018, Jackson made his mark on the NFL record books by putting up numbers that we might not ever see again. Jackson finished with 3,127 passing yards, 36 passing TDs, and just 6 INTs. However, he added 1,206 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs as well.
Jackson set the record for most rushing yards in a season by a QB and even finished 6th overall in the NFL just 300 yards behind the rushing leader Derrick Henry.
Jackson’s unique blend of throwing and running make him one of the hardest players to defend. Yet, it’s hard to imagine that Lamar will duplicate those numbers as teams now have a full season of tape to study and use for preparations.
With that said, Jackson still has a strong chance at winning the award if Mahomes misses time and Lamar can put up similar numbers to last season’s remarkable totals.
Despite being one of the best QBs in the NFL for several years now, Russell Wilson has never won the NFL MVP award. This year, he could have the most talent he’s ever had around him and that will make “Russ” one of the contenders for this award.
Wilson is a mix of Mahomes and Jackson where he can throw from the pocket, on the run and scramble. Although he’s not elite in passing like Mahomes or running like Jackson, Wilson’s blend of both skills makes him a true contender for this award.
Wilson will have the best passing weapons around him since the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run, one of the best rushing attacks, and an improved offensive line. This team will go as far as Wilson takes them and I expect that to be a deep postseason run in 2020.
At +3000 odds, the payoff for a wager on Newton is certainly appealing. However, I would avoid that bet as there are other players who are more worthy of a flier than Cam Newton.
A QB has won the NFL MVP award 11 of the last 12 years including seven in a row. So, we will most likely see that trend continue this year.
With that in mind, I believe that Patrick Mahomes will win the MVP award for the second time in the last three years. The weapons he has at his disposal is just too much for most defenses to deal with. This offense should score at least 30 points per game in 2020.
Mahomes will surpass 4,500 passing yards, 45 TDs and lead this team back to the Super Bowl. As for fliers, I like Kyler Murray.
As a rookie, Arizona’s talented QB put up 3,722 passing yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs, 544 rushing yards, and 4 rushing TDs in 2019. All of those numbers are very close to what NFL betting sites are listing for the Newton prop bets discussed above.
Kyler Murray’s odds of +2500 are a little less than Newton’s, but he is going to have a better offense than Cam will have this year. Most notably, the Cardinals added one of the best receivers in Hopkins who will make this passing attack unstoppable.
Look for Murray to surpass the 4,200 yard passing mark and throw for 30 TDs along with at least 600 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs. He’s going to give Lamar Jackson a run for the best dual threat QB in the league.
If you want a longshot, Josh Allen (+5000) of the Buffalo Bills has arguably the best trio of receivers in the AFC and possibly the NFL. He has a strong running game, a solid offensive line and a Top 3 defense. If Allen can make another leap in progress this year like he did last year, then Allen could create MVP buzz.
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