Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin Prop Bets and Picks

by Kevin Roberts
on September 15, 2017

Fighting fans got the fight they thought they wanted when Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Conor McGregor touched gloves on August 26th. While it didn’t turn out to be a total waste of time, that super fight still left fans and bettors alike wanting more.

True satisfaction should arrive on Saturday, September 16th, when boxing gets a true super fight with Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin waging war in a ring.

The two living legends will go at it to give the sports arguably its biggest bout since Mayweather vs. Pacquiao, if not it’s the biggest bout ever. While that’s a bold claim, there is no getting around the magnitude of this fight, especially in a sport where the elite of elites rarely steps up to the challenge of facing each other.

Alvarez vs. GGG Odds

Step one for boxing bettors will be to figure out who has the edge here. It’s extremely tough to say, as the 27-year old Alvarez has lost just once in his professional career and that defeat came by the hands of the undefeated Mayweather via Majority Decision back in 2014.

Alvarez has been pretty much perfect with a 49-0-1 record throughout the rest of his impressive career, while his knockout power has been on display (34 KOs) in most of those wins.

Of course, Alvarez has the unique challenge of taking on another fighter that will be undefeated when he faces him. GGG has an amazing amateur record but as a pro hasn’t been stopped once, piecing together an iconic string of 37 wins against 0 losses.

GGG has been just as potent when it comes to his knockout power, too, as a ridiculous 33 of his 37 wins have come via some form of KO.

It’s tough to pick a winner here, but you’re not alone. Online betting sites like BetOnline are calling this one close to the chest, with Golovkin entering as the mild favorite:

  • Canelo Alvarez (+129)
  • Gennady Golovkin (-149)

With the KO power and talent here, it’s fair to wonder which way this fight is headed. Some boxing experts think Alvarez is the best boxer as he stands and a win over GGG will only cement that. Other don’t think GGG will ever lose and that a bout with Mayweather has to happen.

You get to decide yourself, while the world waits for the answer ahead of the huge bout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. If we had to pick it, we’d ride with GGG, who has displayed better KO power on a more consistent basis and obviously has never lost. As the mild favorite, he makes sense.

Pick: GGG (-147)

Alvarez vs. GGG Prop Bets

Due to the tight line, this bout isn’t just about who wins. It has to be more than that because it’s extremely tough to call and you’re not getting a massive return on your investment, no matter which side you pick.

It will still be fun to bet on the Alvarez vs. GGG fight, but some of the prop bets in this bout should spice things up a bit. The value is what we’re really after, too. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top prop bets and which wagers make the most sense if we want to get some upside out of this super fight:

Does the Fight Go the Distance?

It’s very possible that we get a full 12 rounds here, judging by the fact that Alvarez did survive Mayweather and these fighters are about as good as it gets. However, when you consider the punching talent and power from both sides, we have to ponder a KO.

BetOnline and other boxing betting sites give us a fun prop bet here, although the line is admittedly even tighter than the fight itself:

  • Goes Distance (-130)
  • Doesn’t Go Distance (+100)

Again, we could bend either way just like with the fight itself, but in this case, we might as well aim somewhat high and take the value. We could get 12 rounds here, but both fighters hunt for the KO and know how to get it. It’s not a bad bet to take at +100.

Pick: Doesn’t Go the Distance (+100)

Group Round Betting

Here you can wager on where the fight will end and how, as BO gives you a number of combinations to consider. Take a gander:

  • GGG wins in rd 1-3 (+1250)
  • GGG wins in rd 4-6 (+725)
  • GGG wins in rd 7-9 (+650)
  • GGG wins in rd 10-12 (+725)
  • GGG wins by Dec (+280)
  • Alvarez wins in rd 1-3 (+3400)
  • Alvarez wins in rd 4-6 (+2500)
  • Alvarez wins in rd 7-9 (+2200)
  • Alvarez wins in rd 10-12 (+2800)
  • Alvarez wins by Dec (+180)
  • Draw (+2000)

Obviously, we prefer GGG here and we like the upside of this bout not going the distance, so a bet somewhere with GGG ahead of round 12 makes sense. This fight probably isn’t ending too early due to Canelo being a great fighter and quite tough, but the value at 10-12 (+725) looks pretty solid.

Pick: GGG wins in rd 10-12 (+725)

Method of Victory

For us, this fight is ending ahead of the full 12 rounds, so we’d be gearing away from any type of a Decision win for either side. That doesn’t mean you have to bet that way, as a Decision bet could still be profitable and/or you might prefer Canelo in this fight.

That could work just fine as well, while it’s important to consider all of our options:

  • GGG via KO/TKO/DQ (+150)
  • GGG via Decision (+280)
  • Alvarez via KO/TKO/DQ (+825)
  • Alvarez via Decision (+180)
  • Draw (+2000)

Again, we’re not picking this bout to go the full 12 rounds, so that takes two bets off the table for us. That could obviously still happen, though, and +280 with GGG provides some nice value.

A GGG KO wins at +150 isn’t terrible, either, but the true value lies with an unlikely Draw (+2000) or a Canelo KO (+825). Still, we like GGG here so if it doesn’t get to 12, a KO looks likely.

Pick: GGG via KO (+150)

Round Betting

Last, but for boxing fans certainly not least, comes the round betting for Alvarez vs. Golovkin. There is a slew of options here, as BetOnline allows you to wager on every single round for both fighters.

We would be foolish to not at least consider a cursory glance at the early round bets for either side. GGG is the more impressive puncher to us so a round one win at +4000 is rather enticing. Alvarez might take the cake at +7500 if we’re talking pure value in round one, of course.

While we’re not banking on a full 12-round bout that leads to a Decision, these fighters are probably too good to see this thing end too early.

That places the bets from round 5 to round 11 squarely in play, as both boxers should have gotten some licks in and we’d be a lot closer to knowing who has the leg up in the fight. The problem, of course, is if we’re betting on it we need to project that beforehand.

Ultimately, these bets aren’t even demanding a win method. We can just bet on GGG winning in round 11 (+2000) or round 12 (+2500) and regardless of how he does it, we’d get a winner. There is a ton of upside on the Alvarez side across the board, but we’d stick with GGG in round 10.

Pick: GGG in round 10 (+1900)
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