On Friday, the NFL and its fans were in a perpetual state of shock as details unfolded in real time regarding Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt and his assault allegations. It seemed like every hour during the day, details of this incident were being shared via media outlets and social media. Eventually, footage of the assault was released to the public and a backlash ensued. Within hours of the video’s release, the NFL placed Hunt on the commissioner’s exempt list. However, the Chiefs did one better by cutting Hunt from the team.
Now that we’ve had a night to digest what’s happened, let’s take a look at how Hunt’s release has affected Kansas City’s betting odds for their upcoming game and future bets.
Initially, the Chiefs opened up as a huge road favorite over the Raiders. Some online betting sites had Kansas City favored as high as 15.5 points, which makes them one of the largest road favorites in the last 15 years. Initially, the majority of betting action has been placed on the Chiefs to cover. They are 8-2-1 ATS this season.
However, with the release of Hunt, the spread dropped at many NFL betting sites. Currently, the majority of sportsbooks have the Chiefs favored by 14 points. Although that’s still a big spread for a road team, the line dropped at least 1 full point and up to 1.5 points at most internet sportsbooks.
There are some online NFL betting sites that have removed the game altogether. If you are looking to do some NFL betting on the Chiefs vs Raiders then you will have to shop around to make sure the online sports betting site is listing this game.
A major reason for this game’s spread to fall is due to the drop-off in production from Hunt to Spencer Ware. Although very capable of handling the starting role, Ware isn’t as explosive as Hunt. Spencer’s best year came in 2016 when he rushed for 921 yards, caught 33 receptions for 447 receiving yards, and tallied 5 total touchdowns.
Last year as a rookie, Hunt finished with 1,372 rushing yards, 455 receiving yards, and 11 total touchdowns. This year, through 11 games, Hunt had 1,202 total yards and 14 total touchdowns. In fact, his 824 rushing yards in 11 games, is almost more than Ware’s best year when he played in 14 games.
Prior to the news of Hunt’s release, the Chiefs were the clear favorites to win the AFC West, the AFC Conference and one of the top teams to win the Super Bowl. After the release, the Chiefs remain the favorites as these future bets haven’t changed.
I think it’s safe to assume that the online sportsbooks are waiting to see how the Chiefs do this weekend before they adjust any Kansas City NFL future bets. It’s a reasonable approach to take for the weekend. Depending on how Kansas City does on Sunday against the Raiders, these odds could remain unchanged or they could see movement based on the results of this rivalry game.
This is one of the bitterest rivalries in all of football. Heading into this weekend’s game, these two teams have played against each other 118 times. The Chiefs lead this rivalry with an all-time record of 63-53-2.
Although the Raiders aren’t a good team this year, their hatred for the Chiefs could propel them to play inspired football in Week 13. But, will that be enough to upset the AFC’s best team?
In all honesty, even without Hunt, the Chiefs should still demolish the Raiders. Oakland is giving up 29.7 ppg and 395.9 total yards per game. They’re the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 151.4 rushing ypg. They also allow nearly 245 passing ypg.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the leading candidate for NFL MVP with 3,628 passing yards, 37 TDs, and only 10 INTs. The Chiefs offense averages 445.6 total yards per game, with over 60% of that production coming via the passing attack.
On the year, the Chiefs were averaging 115.8 rushing yards per game with Hunt. Kareem has only gone over the 100 yard mark on one occasion this year. With that in mind, Spencer Ware and company should be able to replicate most of Hunt’s production this year and help to keep this offense rolling along. Let’s face it, the Chiefs are a pass first team with one of the most dominating passing attacks in the league.
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the Chiefs, 5-10 ATS against divisional foes, 2-5 ATS versus the AFC, and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against the Chiefs.
KC is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 12-3 ATS versus their divisional foes, 7-1 ATS versus the AFC, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games during December, and 5-2 ATS as a favorite.
Even without Hunt, there’s no way the Raiders will win this game. Mahomes and the passing attack will light up a weak Raiders defense. Furthermore, Oakland’s rush defense is so bad that Spencer Ware will have a big day and make everyone forget about Hunt at least for this weekend.
If you are determined to bet on this AFC West rivalry game, then take the Chiefs to cover the 14 point spread. I believe they will come out on fire and look to prove that they don’t need Hunt on their team. Mahomes will probably throw for at least 4 touchdowns and KC should win 38 to 20.
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