An Early Betting Look at UFC 244: Diaz vs Masvidal
2019 has been a stellar year for the UFC as they’ve put on some incredible fights around the world. With that said, the best is still to come. On November 2nd, UFC 244 will be live from the hallowed grounds of Madison Square Garden with the main event of Nate Diaz versus Jorge Masvidal.
This fight is loosely being dubbed as “the people’s fight” as these two welterweights are two of the most popular fighters in the UFC. This fight has created such a buzz that some of the world’s top athletes and entertainers are taking notice.
No celebrity has jumped on the UFC 244 hype train more than Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. Hollywood’s biggest action star has already publicly stated that he will try to be at the event. The UFC retweeted The Rock’s comments, and it almost broke Twitter.
— UFC (@ufc) September 7, 2019
Jorge Masvidal, a resident of Miami just like Johnson was as a kid and in college, stated that he wants The Rock to put the specially created “BMF belt” around his waist when he wins. That sparked Johnson to release the following comments via social media:
“Doing all I can to make this fight. If I can and you win, I’ll put the belt around your waist at MSG – consider it done. Already shaping up to be one of the biggest and most electrifying fights in @ufc history. Can’t wait.”
UFC betting sites have also taken notice of this fight as they’ve already released betting odds for the main event contest. Let’s take a look at the odds and see if there’s any value on placing an early UFC 244 bet.
UFC 244 Betting Odds
Jorge Masvidal is on a two-fight win streak with both of them coming against top UFC fighters Darren Till and Ben Askren. Masvidal last stepped inside the octagon in July, and KO’d Ben Askren with a flying knee just five seconds into the contest. It was an incredible UFC moment, and it catapulted Jorge into stardom.
Nate Diaz returned to the octagon last month after a three-year hiatus and took on Anthony Pettis in a fight that brought a ton of hype and buzz from the fans. The pro-Diaz crowd got their money’s worth as Diaz dominated the fight and won via unanimous decision. He called out Masvidal afterward, and it shook up the entire sport.
After a few weeks of tossing the idea around, the UFC finally accepted this matchup and made it official last week. MMA betting sites released odds on the main event as soon as it became a possibility. Jorge Masvidal is listed as high as a -200 betting favorite depending on which sports betting site you look at. Nate Diaz is as high as a +162 underdog depending on the UFC 244 betting site.
As for the rest of the UFC 244 card, there are several exciting fights in the works for this big PPV event like:
- Kelvin Gastelum vs Darren Till
- Stephen Thompson vs Vicente Luque
- Derrick Lewis vs Blagoy Ivanov
- Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker
Unfortunately, online betting sites haven’t released any odds for these fights as of yet.
A Look at Diaz’s and Masvidal’s Previous Betting Odds
Masvidal was the underdog for his fight against Askren two months ago. He opened as a +170 betting underdog and closed around +130. Before that, he was also the underdog against Darren Till, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, and Donald Cerrone.
You have to go back to December 2016 when Masvidal defeated Jake Ellenberger via 1st round TKO to find the last time he was a betting favorite.
Diaz opened as a -120 betting favorite against Anthony Pettis in their showdown last month but ended up closing as the underdog with a line of +110 to -105 depending on the sports betting site. Diaz was an underdog in both of his fights against Conor McGregor despite winning their first bout in March 2016.
The last time Diaz came in as the betting favorite was against Josh Thomson in April 2013. Diaz lost that fight via 2nd round TKO.
Should You Place a UFC 244 Wager Now?
I believe that oddsmakers are overvaluing Masvidal and it sets up a nice payday for those who bet on Diaz. But, should you wager on Diaz now or wait until later?
I expect the odds to significantly shift over the next six weeks leading up to the mega-fight. With that said, for those picking Nate Diaz to win then you should wager now. With betting lines of +160 at several online betting sites, I expect his odds to go down by November.
For those of you picking Jorge Masvidal to win then, I suggest you wait for his line to go down. With odds as high as -200, I expect them to come down some as we get closer to the fight. Lower betting odds would provide more of a return on your wager.
I’m hoping that some MMA betting sites offer exciting Masivdal versus Diaz prop bets outside of the octagon. This fight deserves some creativity from oddsmakers like whether or not The Rock will be there.
As for who will win this fight, you will have to wait until around Halloween when I do my UFC 244 betting preview before I give away my winner. These two “gangstas” are going to put on an incredible event that will be a hit with MMA fans around the world and draw big numbers for the UFC.