Besides Genetic Luck, Does Conor Have a Chance Against Floyd?

By in Sports & Betting on

“The Notorious” Conor Mcgregor has signed his part of the deal to fight Floyd “Money” Mayweather. Of course, there are more details to be ironed out like the PPV money split, fight weight, and when. The where seems to be T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. This gorgeous new facility is surrounded by one of our country’s most unique skylines. These casinos run Vegas and they will probably see more action for this fight than they ever have!

We can begin to assume now that only the big money will be on Floyd. Average joe bettors can’t play with -700 odds. This leaves opportunity for the public to potentially get some serious return on their investment.

Mcgregor’s odds to pull off a victory are around +1000. Considering the odds for some of Ronda Rousey’s underdog foes have been larger than that, this bet is worth a look. There are many deep pockets out there that are going to bet 5,000.00 to win 50,000.00. Many more will wager less. 100.00 to win 1000.00 sounds like a good night for the public. Are gamblers better off tossing their 100 in the Bellagio fountain and making a wish?

Conor has been a value bet in the past, but nothing like we see now in the contest against Mayweather. “Mystic Mac” as he likes to call himself has predicted wins along with the round in the past. He may be outmatched, but will not be short on confidence. Now let’s take a glimpse into some of Conor’s biggest fights along with the closing odds and possible payouts.

Mendes

This matchup came about quickly after the champion at the time, Jose Aldo, broke his foot a couple weeks before the fight. The interim title was up for grabs and the two warriors were set to collide. The odds closed at -210 in favor of Mcgregor. This line looks especially tasty considering Mendes took the fight on short notice.

Stylistically though, it didn’t look good for Conor. He was training for a striker in Jose Aldo. Instead, Mendes is a very strong wrestler who showed he could hang with Aldo on the feet. Early in the fight, Mendes took control with takedowns and cut Macgregor with a sharp elbow.

Conor never stopped kicking the body the whole fight. He landed 14 body kicks in the 1st round and 5 in the second. They caught up with the “2-week camp trained” fighter and as his hands dropped, so did the rest of him. Those who put up double money were rewarded by Mystic Mac as he was just 1 round off his KO prediction.

Aldo

Following the contest with Mendes, Conor had a unification bout with the longtime featherweight champion Jose Aldo. The odds on this one closed at -245 in favor of Mcgregor. This was mainly because Aldo wasn’t known for his superior wrestling, as that seemed to be the only possible solution to the riddle that was Mcgregor.

This fight had much of the public and sharps jumping on Jose, as he was the more proven champion by far. Some late money went on Conor as he was obviously burrowed deep into the psyche of Aldo. Contrary to what some may believe, anger will not help you win a fight. It will only tighten your muscles, close your mind, and slow your reaction time.

As long as you didn’t blink, you saw Aldo angrily moving forward without earning that position. We all saw him pay dearly. Still, no one saw this coming, not even Mcgregor. Or did he? The man’s fight IQ is in the 99th percentile, no doubt. In hindsight, the -245 line definitely had value. Foresight though isn’t 20/20. This is unless you’re Mystic Mac of course.

Diaz I 

This was an intriguing and equally impressive matchup of two trash talkers outside and inside of the octagon. Conor went up not one but two weight classes to fight the much larger Nate Diaz. Diaz took the fight on short notice when he got a call while relaxing on a beach in Mexico. Both guys had elite boxing for MMA, but Nate held a massive advantage on the ground.

The lines closed on this one in favor of Conor at -585. The value here was clearly on Nate Diaz “upsetting” Mcgregor. Conor came out of the gate blistering Nate with left hands and trying to finish the fight as soon as possible. This was his first mistake. One doesn’t just simply finish a Diaz brother. Unless of course, your name is Tony Montana.

As Mcgregor found himself wobbled from being on the wrong end of a 1-2, he was gassing and nearly out on his feet. He then desperately shot for a takedown and soon tapped to the black belt’s rear naked choke. Many fans claimed it was BJJ that decided the fight, and/or Conor’s lack of heart. This wasn’t true at all as boxing was the difference when he only shot the takedown to prevent himself from being knocked out.

Those who found value in Nate Diaz were handsomely rewarded. This included me as I parlayed him with Meisha Tate to beat Holly Holm. This made for an incredibly exciting and fruitful night.

Diaz II

When it came time for these two to lock horns again, the odds were sure to be much closer. Surprisingly, they were still in favor of Mcgregor as he lost the first fight. Nate had a full camp to prepare. It was still to be fought at 170 lbs, per an insist by Mcgregor. This showed he was a true samurai.

When it was time for the lines to close and the cage door too, Mcgregor found himself at a -185 favorite against a larger man. Nate also tapped him within 10 minutes the first time they fought. Did this line hold any value or should you have put your hard-earned dough on the underdog Nate again for a bigger payout?

Conor made the necessary adjustments in this contest. He kicked Nate’s leg early which slowed Nate from the 3rd round on. This was imperative as Conor is mostly a fast twitch muscle guy and knew that he himself would slow around that time. Nate being an endurance fighter, looked to capitalize deep into the contest. With his movement slowed due to leg kicks, Conor was able to pull off the decision victory.

Bettors who put up double money on Mcgregor went home happy. Many want to see this matchup ran back a third time. If it happens, it will be a while still as Conor has belts to defend and that Floyd Mayweather thing too.

Alvarez

After Conor won the interim 145 belt and unified it, he went to 170 and split two contests with Nate Diaz. With the thought of cutting to 145 nearly out of the question, a 155 title fight with champion Eddie Alvarez was next for Mystic Mac.

This contest was scheduled to be the first UFC in the state of New York, and set to take place inside the sports mecca Madison Square Garden. These odds closed at -195 for the challenger Conor Mcgregor. On paper, this is a much better matchup for him than Nate Diaz. Conor was clearly the more technical boxer. He also held a reach and power advantage.

Eddie’s best chance was to win with wrestling and endurance. While UFC fighter’s win with this strategy all the time, this one was not meant to be. Conor was now back in the good graces of the sharp bettors with the deep pockets. The public maintained a split, but that was mostly due to Conor’s “heel” persona.

The fight proved to be a mismatch. Alvarez was outclassed and embarrassed on his home turf. Conor easily defeated him with superior boxing, range, timing, and power. I cashed out big on this one as well as those who put their trust into Mystic Mac.

Mayweather

Here comes the change, pun intended. Conor is longer, younger, and more awkward than Floyd Mayweather. This is a boxing match though. “Money” is the best boxer of our time and probably the last 20 years. He is incredibly hard to hit, and has maybe the best right hand of all time.

Floyd has definitely faced better boxers than his opponent, and we know Conor cannot say the same. Prop bets will be of Super Bowl popularity when fight time comes around. This is usually the case when the odds are staggeringly far apart.

Conor is definitely worth a small to medium wager of 50.00 all the way to 5000.00 if you’ve got it. Through sparring 1000’s of rounds with pro fighters, I’ve learned that awkward younger southpaws are highly difficult to deal with. This is almost always true even with a significant advantage I may hold in experience.

So, go ahead and have some fun with this one. Fights like these will hopefully happen more frequently. Until then though, enjoy the huge odds and butterflies in your stomach while you dream of a 10-1 payout.
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