Donald Trump Betting: Will the President Win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Unless you passed away a few years ago and are somehow reading this from beyond the grave, you may be aware that Donald Trump is the sitting President of the United States. You may also be aware that his time in office has led to all sorts of controversies and a nauseating, poisonous, seemingly endless discourse from both sides of the aisle. Trump has only been in office for about a year-and-a-half, but the nonstop deluge of wild stories that have come out in that time make it feel as though he’s been in the White House a whole lot longer than 18 months.
Anyway, we aren’t here to whine about things. We may as well have some fun with it in the meantime. Paddy Power has set the bar for Donald Trump-related prop betting. The Irish bookmaker has taken full advantage of the interest in the 45th American president, and they have a boatload of Trump props listed in their website. Some of them are pure comedy, while others take a more serious tone.
There’s no way we will have time to cover all of them in this space (there are hundreds of props), but let’s dive into a few of these.
Trump to Win a Nobel Peace Prize During First Term
Donald Trump certainly isn’t the type of person that immediately comes to mind when you think of the Nobel Peace Prize, but his supporters have been adamant that the has a legitimate case. During a recent Cabinet meeting at which reporters were present, Trump was asked whether he believes he deserves the honor. The president replied, “Everyone thinks so, but I would never say it. The prize I want is victory for the world. Not for even here – I want victory for the world ‘cause that’s what we’re talking about. So that’s the only prize I want.”
Trump’s name has come up in connection with the honor due to the recent summit with reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. The Nobel Peace Prize is handed out every October and awarded on December 10, the anniversary of the death of Alfred Nobel. If Trump wins, he will be the fifth American president awarded the honor after Theodore Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, Woodrow Wilson and Barack Obama.
Supporters have gone all-in on suggesting Trump would be a worthy recipient. At a recent campaign-style rally in Michigan, the crowd broke into a “No-bel! No-bel!” chant as Trump was talking about North Korean relations. In April, South Korean president Moon Jae-In went so far as to say that Trump would be a deserving recipient.
Trump’s summit with Kim resulted in both leaders signing an agreement, though specifics on said agreement have not yet been reported publicly. The goal for the United States in reaching out to North Korea is to try and convince the tiny nation to get rid of their nuclear weapons. North Korea has threatened nuclear attacks in the past against a number of targets, including the U.S.
We obviously don’t yet know whether the discussions between Trump and Kim will bear any fruit, but that hasn’t stopped folks from insisting that the president should get the Nobel Peace Prize just for trying. There isn’t much value on betting on Trump to win, considering the oddsmakers seem to think it’s a real possibility. 1-2 odds don’t present a whole lot of profit potential.
Rex Tillerson to Confirm by the End of 2018 That he Called President Trump a “Moron”
Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is one of many, many members of Trump’s staff and Cabinet to have left his post rather early on. Tillerson served as Secretary of State from February 1, 2017, until March 13, 2018. It wasn’t a long run, but TIllerson sure did seem to make the most of his time in charge of American foreign policy.
It took only a few months before reports began to emerge indicating a divide between Tillerson and Trump. The former was reportedly growing increasingly frustrated in private with the way the latter wanted to run things on a global stage. Reports said that Trump suggested a tenfold increase in America’s nuclear arsenal during a meeting on July 20, 2017. Something like that, of course, would cost an exorbitant amount of money and take decades to accomplish.
Those in the meeting then told reporters that Trump’s comments resulted in Tillerson calling him either a “moron” or a “f-ing moron.” When those comments were reported in the media, Tillerson subsequently held an awkward press conference during which he declined to answer whether he actually made those comments. Trump would go on to publicly challenge his own Secretary of State to an IQ test. Yes, all of this really happened.
Trump ultimately decided to fire Tillerson in March and replace him with Mike Pompeo, the former CIA director. Tillerson, who was the CEO of ExxonMobil before being nominated for Secretary of State, hasn’t been seen much in public since leaving the administration. The 66-year-old has presumably retired to his home in Texas. He was never one to seek much attention from the media while working in the government, and you can be sure he won’t be seeking the spotlight now that he has gone back to being a private citizen.
Still, if someone were to ask Tillerson whether he made the comment now that he’s out from under the Trump shadow, there’s a decent chance that he would. Remember, he never denied having called the president a moron in the first place. I like the profit potential here at 6-1.
Trump Approval Rating to Drop Below 20% During His First Term
Approval ratings, like all polls, should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Remember the 2016 election polls that told us Hillary Clinton was a lock to win? Yeah…not great, Bob. Anyway, Gallup tends to be the most reliable pollster as far as approval ratings go. From June 11 through June 17, Trump had an approval rating of 45 percent. Not bad! Especially for him. That tied the highest mark of his presidency to date. The 50 percent disapproval was also one of his better marks.
It didn’t last long, however. The very next week, the week that the whole “keeping immigrant children away from their parents” thing really hit the mainstream, the numbers differed considerably. His approval dropped 4 percent on the next poll, while disapproval saw a 5 percent hike, per the Washington Post. Republican approval dropped 3 percent, independents went down 4 percent and Democratic approval dipped 5 percentage points.
Trump’s average approval rating over the course of his entire presidency to this point sits at 42, per Gallup. Per RealClearPolitics, which accounts for Gallup’s numbers, he’s at 43.5 percent. For the sake of comparison, President Obama’s approval rating was well over 50 percent during his final year in office.
The Trump presidency is such a whirlwind that we have no idea what kind of news will come out at any time that will sway public perception one way or another. As such, making prognostications regarding something as volatile as approval rating is a real challenge. It’s also worth noting that there is a large faction of America that will approve of him no matter what happens. As the man himself once said, he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and he wouldn’t lose any votes. For whatever demented reason, he might be right.
Trump is all sorts of divisive on just about every issue, but the notion that his approval may one day dip below 20 percent is hard to fathom. That seems to be because, no matter what he does, his fellow Republicans will remain in his corner. The president’s approval rating among his fellow Republicans is constantly hovering above 80 percent. At the 500-day mark of his presidency, Trump’s approval rating among those in his own party sat at a healthy 87 percent. Among recent presidents, that’s the second-highest mark at day 500, trailing only George W. Bush. 96 percent of Republicans approved of Bush at that point.
So, no, Trump’s approval rating will likely never dip below 20 percent.
White House to Confirm Donald Trump Has Hit a Hole in One
You may have heard that Mr. Trump is an avid golfer. Despite spending plenty of time lambasting President Obama for golfing during his presidency, Trump has spent a great deal of time on the course himself since being elected. As someone that owns a bunch of golf courses all over the world, it only makes sense that the president would choose to spent his leisure time on the links. The Trump Organization either owns or operates 17 golf courses around the world, including 12 in the United States.
As of June 24, 2018, Trump has played golf 119 times since taking office. As of September of 2017, the president was on pace to play golf 759 times over the span of 8 years, if he is able to win re-election and complete 2 full terms. So far, Trump has spent nearly 22 percent of his days as president on a golf course somewhere. That’s a lot of golf! Trump has played with luminaries like Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning and perhaps the greatest player to ever play the sport, Tiger Woods.
The notion that the White House may confirm that Trump hit a hole-in-one during a round of golf is clearly a reference to North Korea. North Korea’s former leader, Kim Jong-Il, was said to be an avid golfer in his own right. We know that the North Korean media is controlled by the government. There’s clearly a chance Kim Jong-Il was a fine golfer. Even so, the North Korean dictator reportedly shot a round at 38-under a par 34 at the Pyongyang Golf Course. He reportedly carded no shot worse than a birdie during the 18-hole round and racked up 5 holes-in-one. 17 armed bodyguards claimed to be witnesses to the amazing “feat.”
We know Trump’s administration (notably press people) tend to get a little loosy-goosy with the facts from time to time. Would it surprise anyone to hear Sarah Huckabee Sanders stand at the White House podium and say that Trump bagged a hole-in-one during a round? This is an entirely plausible scenario, especially since we know much of what they say is geared to please the boss.
There is some pretty solid profit potential here at 50-1, too. Why not take a flier here? Crazier things have happened during this administration.
Donald Trump to Employ Sean Hannity at the White House in 2018
We know that 2 of Donald Trump’s favorite things to do are to play golf and to watch cable news. The president is more than happy to take time to tweet or speak out regarding his approval of Fox News, which tends to take a favorable view toward the 45th POTUS. Trump frequently praises Fox News while lambasting other networks like CNN or NBC.
Sean Hannity, a right-wing personality, is one of the stars of Fox News’ weeknight programming schedule. Hannity, who also hosts a radio show during the afternoon, has been on Trump’s side of things since Trump first announced his candidacy in the summer of 2015. Trump has clearly taken a liking to Hannity’s positive coverage of Trump’s presidency, and the 2 have reportedly become quite close. Trump will reportedly often call Hannity at night, either before or after the host’s TV show hits the airwaves.
Some of the bigger names at Fox News have taken some heat in recent years, with both Bill O’Reilly and Roger Ailes having been forced out due to conduct concerns. Hannity hasn’t been linked with anything of that nature, but he has gotten himself into some hot water in the past for things he’s said while on the air. There’s no telling whether Hannity is really in any danger of being let go at the moment, but there is always the potential for him to say something that will get him fired.
If he is to leave Fox News, one would imagine the president would be happy to scoop him up as a free agent. Hannity’s status as an unwavering loyalist would likely mean a White House job will be there for him if he wants it. Hannity’s show led the prime time ratings for a while, but he was recently surpassed by MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow. If Fox gets nervous about the declining ratings, perhaps they will go in another direction at some point.
It may not necessarily happen before the calendar flips to 2019, however. This bet says that Hannity needs to be hired in 2018, which only gives us about 5 months with which to work. There is still excellent value here at 13-1, but the time frame may not make the bet viable. If the bet were whether Hannity will work in the White House in some capacity during Trump’s first term, I would have a lot more enthusiasm for it.
Still, I don’t hate this wager if you’re a more risk tolerant type of bettor. Hannity and Trump seem to be on a collision course of sorts one way or another.