Donald Trump Favored to Win 2024 Election: Is He a Good Bet? 

By in Politics on
6 Minute Read

To say that Donald Trump’s first and only term as president was chaotic would be quite an understatement. The 45th president was impeached twice during his four-year stint in the White House, and he left office this past January in disgrace shortly after an unruly gang of his supporters tried to overturn the election by charging the US Capitol.

In a normal world, a politician with Trump’s dicey track record would have no prayer of ever winning another election. Of course, we don’t live in a normal world at the moment. Despite having been out of office for 10 months, Trump is still the single most popular figure in Republican politics.

Trump has spent the vast majority of the past year out of the public eye. After leaving Washington, he immediately retreated to Mar-a-Lago before spending the summer at his golf club in New Jersey.

While he has not explicitly stated that he plans to run for another term in 2024, he has still held the occasional campaign rally. Just this past weekend Trump made a stop in Iowa, where he raved and ranted his usual lies about how last year’s election was unfairly stolen from him.

In spite of it all, political betting sites have installed Trump as the betting favorite to win the 2024 election. That election is still a long way off, of course, but BetOnline has given Trump +245 odds to win a second, non-consecutive term in office. Joe Biden, meanwhile, has slumped to +325, while Kamala Harris checks in at +500.

The fully updated 2024 presidential election odds are listed below:

  • Donald Trump (+275)
  • Joe Biden (+325)
  • Kamala Harris (+500)
  • Ron DeSantis (+1050)
  • Pete Buttigieg (+1600)
  • Nikki Haley (+1750)
  • Mike Pence (+2000)
  • Elizabeth Warren (+2500)
  • Tucker Carlson (+3300)
  • Andrew Yang (+4000)
  • Mike Pompeo (+4000)
  • Kristi Noem (+4500)
  • Mark Cuban (+5000)
  • Amy Klobuchar (+5000)
  • Ted Cruz (+5000)
  • Gavin Newsom (+5000)

GOP Nomination Is Trump’s if He Wants It

As the most popular member of the Republican Party, Trump can essentially call his own shot. If he decides to throw his hat into the ring and seek a second term in the White House, all he has to do is make it official. As soon as he does, it’s almost impossible to imagine any other candidate beating him to the GOP nomination.

The Republican Party Is Divided at the Moment

The Trump wing of the party will be happy to put him right back at the top of the presidential ticket for the third consecutive election. However, there is another large faction of the party that wants to head in a different direction. Despite his claims, Trump didn’t come particularly close to beating Biden last fall. Biden racked up 306 electoral college votes and beat Trump by more than seven million popular votes nationwide.

Some outspoken Republicans, like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, are adamant that the party needs to move on from Trump in order to survive in the long run. However, they seem to be in the minority among Republicans at the moment. The vast majority of Congressional Republicans have continued to support Trump. 88-year-old Senator Chuck Grassley, who is seeking re-election next year, gladly accepted Trump’s endorsement at the aforementioned Iowa rally this past weekend. Grassley and Trump have not always seen eye-to-eye, but the veteran Senator admitted that he would be crazy to turn down Trump’s endorsement.

At the rally, Grassley said,

“I was born at night but not last night. So if I didn’t accept the endorsement of a person that’s got 91 percent of the Republican voters in Iowa, I wouldn’t be too smart. I’m smart enough to accept that endorsement.”

Trump is 75, but the American public did just elect the 78-year-old Biden. Age isn’t as big of a hindrance as some may think. Trump will be pushing 80 by the time 2024 rolls around, though, so it will be interesting to see whether Father Time plays a role over the next couple of years. The former president can talk all he wants about another presidential run right now, but there’s no telling how he’ll fare physically as he continues to age.

BetOnline lists Trump as a +100 favorite to win his party’s presidential nomination in ’24. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a loyal Trump ally, is a distant second at +500. Nikki Haley (+850), Mike Pence (+1200), and Tucker Carlson (+1750) round out the top five.

  • Donald Trump (+100)
  • Ron DeSantis (+500)
  • Nikki Haley (+850)
  • Mike Pence (+1200)
  • Tucker Carlson (+1750)
  • Ted Cruz (+2500)
  • Kristi Noem (+2500)
  • Mike Pompeo (+2800)
  • Liz Cheney (+3000)

Which Other Republicans Could Challenge Trump?

Trump lost last year’s election, but he still garnered more than 74 million votes nationally in that losing effort. That is still the second-most votes any presidential candidate has ever received. While he is one of the most divisive politicians the country has ever seen, there is still a large swath of the voting public willing to support him if he’s the nominee.

Could that change between now and 2024?

Possibly. Perhaps Trump’s anti-democratic behavior after losing the election turned off some of the people that voted for him last November. Maybe some voters that supported him because he was the only alternative to Biden are ready for the GOP to go a different route with a new face in 2024.

It will be fascinating to see which Republicans are brave enough to potentially challenge Trump in the primary. It’s easy to forget that the Republican field ahead of the 2016 election was packed with big names even before Trump became a real threat. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush were all heavy favorites to lead the GOP ticket that year before Trump Fever swept through the party.

A lot has changed since then, of course. Trump is now the face of the party, while many of his former opponents, including Cruz and Rubio, have become loyal public-facing allies. Running for office requires a lot of work and effort. It’s worth wondering whether any other Republican heavy-hitters – including Cruz and DeSantis – will even bother to take on Trump if the latter decides to seek a second presidential term.

DeSantis is the name most often cited as a potential alternative to Trump. The Florida Governor has drawn rave reviews from those within the party for his refusal to shut down his state’s economy during the pandemic. If Trump does not run, many believe DeSantis is the logical successor to the GOP throne.

However, Trump did fire a warning shot across the bow earlier this month. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Trump said,

“If I faced [DeSantis], I’d beat him like I would beat everyone else. I think most people would drop out. I think he would drop out.”

Those that are ideologically aligned with Trump would presumably just wait until the next election cycle before jumping into the ring. Frankly, there’s no sense in bothering to challenge Trump if he’s going to run. Trumpism is an ideology best promoted by the man himself. US election betting is all about trying to predict what will happen in the future. Given Trump’s recent actions, it’s looking increasingly likely that he’ll give the presidency another go in a few years.

That Said, It’s Not as Though Trump Won’t Have Some Opposition if He Does Run

There is a very good chance that at least one non-Trump Republican joins the fray. Liz Cheney, who is set to face a tough re-election battle for her seat in the House of Representatives next year, is the most likely candidate to try and unseat Trump atop the ticket. Nikki Haley, Trump’s former UN Ambassador, is another potential candidate that has vacillated in her support of the former POTUS over the years.

Is Trump a Good Bet for 2024?

While Trump has been saying all the right things with regard to his interest in a 2024 presidential run, I’ll believe it when I see it. Trump didn’t seem to particularly enjoy his time in the White House, to begin with. He is certainly someone that relishes being the center of attention, though, which is what may ultimately push him over the top when it comes to whether to seek another term.

That said, I can’t ignore the fact that Trump will likely breeze his way to the GOP nomination if he enters the race. The lack of legitimate opposition gives him a very clear path to winning another election in 2024. If Biden’s approval rating continues to trend in the wrong direction, the Democrats may have a very difficult choice to make before the next election cycle. Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, may face an uphill battle if she’s forced to run on Biden’s struggling resume.

As a result, Trump is certainly a good bet to win again in 2024. The even-money odds on the former president to win his party’s nomination again are very much in play. At +275 to win in ’24, Trump is a very alluring long-term wager.

Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu ...

View all posts by Taylor Smith
Email the author at: [email protected]