Five Last Minute Value Bets for UFC 250

By in MMA on
6 Minute Read
UFC 250 Amanda Nunes

UFC 250 is right around the corner and there’s still time to get some wagers in before the stacked card begins. If you are looking to place a last minute bet on the UFC before the show kicks off then check out our Top 5 last minute value plays for UFC 250: Nunes vs Spencer:

Cody Stamann Wins Via Decision (-135)

Cody Stamann (-265) is a large betting favorite over Brian Kelleher (+225) in their exciting prelims fight on Saturday. This will be Stamann’s first fight since December 2019. However, Kelleher is making a quick turnaround on three weeks’ notice. The short rest period is one factor working against Kelleher.

The Over/Under is set at 2.5 rounds for this contest with the Over (-235) heavily favored. This means that UFC betting sites feel that the fight has a good shot at going late into the 3rd round. Furthermore, the odds favor the fight going the full three rounds (-210).

With the odds lining up for the fight to go the distance that means we’re most likely looking at one of these men winning via decision.

Kelleher has gone to a decision in seven of his 31 pro fights with a record of 4-3 in those contests. Stamann has gone the distance in 12 of his 20 pro fights and has a remarkable record of 10-1-1 in those bouts.

Five of Stamann’s last six fights have gone the distance and he’s 4-1-1 in those bouts. I see great value with Stamann winning via decision over Kelleher this weekend.

Sean O’Malley Wins Inside the Distance (-160)

Rising bantamweight prospect Sean O’Malley returns to action three months after his first fight in two years. He scored a 1st round TKO victory in that contest over Jose Alberto Quinonez.

O’Malley is a massive betting favorite (-500) over Eddie Wineland (+400) on Saturday and is expected to pick up the 12th win of his career. The Over/Under is set at 1.5 rounds with the Over (-150) being listed as the favorite.

However, this fight is not expected to go the full three rounds (-210). Eight of O’Malley’s 11 pro fights have ended inside the distance with seven coming by way of TKO/KO. Wineland has suffered three TKO/KO losses in his career and is more of a “name” than a contender these days.

I’m not sure if “Sugar” Sean O’Malley can score the 1st round TKO/KO in this one, but I like his chances to finish this fight inside the distance (-160). He has the speed, power and striking advantages over his opponent this weekend.

Sterling Wins by Decision (+180)

Of the five main card fights, Sterling vs Sandhagen will be the most impactful bout moving forward unless there is a huge upset in the main event, which I don’t see happening. This is a battle of two Top 4 bantamweights who are fighting for a title shot in their next trip to the octagon.

These combatants are evenly matched on paper and with the MMA betting sites as #2 ranked Aljamain Sterling is the slight favorite at -120 odds and #4 ranked Corey Sandhagen is the slight underdog at +100 odds.

The Over/Under for this contest is at 2.5 rounds with the Over (-210) being the large betting favorite. Once again, oddsmakers feel that this fight has a good shot at going the full three rounds (-180).

Taking this a step further, these two men have lost one time inside the distance over a combined 34 total MMA fights. Additionally, these two top ranked bantamweights have gone the distance in 17 of their 34 total fights. That’s a 50% combined rate of going the full scheduled rounds.

I see the opening round of this contest being a feeling out process between the two technically savvy fighters. Eventually, this bout will end up on the mat where Sterling has the slight edge. Upright, Sandhagen’s height and reach will most likely be too much for Sterling.

I expect a solid two rounds of grappling to close out this fight, which should take this contest the full distance. From there, I like Sterling to win the bout via decision (+180) due to his wrestling, BJJ and athletic advantages.

Garbrandt Wins Inside the Distance (+195)

The popular Cody Garbrandt returns to action in the co-main event of UFC 250 as he takes on Raphael Assuncao in a Top 9 bantamweight battle. The #9 ranked Garbrandt (-140) is the betting favorite over a tough #5 ranked Raphael Assuncao (+120).

The Over/Under for this fight is set at 2.5 rounds with the Over (-125) listed as the slight favorite. The Under is a +105 underdog. These odds are so close that some MMA betting sites have it reversed where the Under is the favorite.

Nevertheless, I really like the Under 2.5 rounds in this contest for several reasons. One factor is that these two bantamweights are going to come out swinging and look for the TKO/KO. Garbrandt has lost three straight fights via TKO/KO, so Assuncao will test his chin.

However, the main reason why I like this fight to finish inside the distance is that Garbrandt has only gone the full distance in two of his 14 pro fights with one of them being against Dominick Cruz for the title.

I see a desperate, hungry Garbrandt going in for the finish early in this fight and getting it. Assuncao has been stopped in three of his seven pro losses including two fights ago against Marlon Moraes when he lost via 1st round submission.

With that in mind, I like Garbrandt to pick up the win inside the distance (+195) as he announces that his days as a title contender aren’t over.

Nunes Wins Inside the Distance (-230)

In my UFC 250 betting preview, I listed several reasons why I believe Amanda Nunes will win this fight and why I believe she’s the greatest female MMA fighter of all-time. So, I won’t rehash those reasons in this article. Instead, I will touch on why I believe this fight will end inside the distance.

Nunes is the biggest betting favorite of the night as she’s listed at -600 odds and Felicia Spencer is listed at +450 odds. Furthermore, the Over/Under is set at 1.5 rounds in a scheduled five round fight.

The listed O/U means that the sports betting websites don’t see this bout going the full five rounds. Additionally, the odds favor this bout ending inside the distance (-260).

Nunes has only gone the distance in four of her 23 pro fights. In her seven year UFC career, Nunes has gone the distance in three contests. Those bouts were against Valentina Shevchenko and Germaine de Randamie.

Both of those women are top notch strikers, which Felicia Spencer is not. Moreover, Shevchenko is considered the second best female fighter in the UFC behind Nunes. Once again, you won’t mistake Spencer for a Shevchenko or GDR.

Since I don’t see this fight going the full five rounds, and I definitely don’t see the GOAT Amanda Nunes losing that leaves me with the betting option of the “Lioness” winning inside the distance at -230 odds.

If you want to take more of a risk then go with Nunes winning this fight via TKO/KO at -120 odds. The champ has a 68% TKO/KO rate in her victories.

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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