Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Preview, Odds and Predictions

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Folds of Honor NASCAR Winner Racetrack

On Sunday, June 7th, NASCAR returns to the Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. This is the 10th race of the season and drivers are getting back into a groove after a hectic month of May as NASCAR returned from a two month hiatus.

The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, QuikTrip 500 for short, was originally scheduled for March 15th, but was postponed nearly two months due to professional sports being suspended due to health restrictions.

Brad Keselowski comes into this weekend red hot after winning two of the last three races. He’s also the reigning QuikTrip 500 winner. However, it’s Kevin Harvick that is the betting favorite with the NASCAR betting sites. He’s followed closely by Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Alex Bowman.

Race Profile

The Atlanta Motor Speedway is a traditional quad oval track with a lap distance of 1.5 miles and four corners that have a 24 degree banking.

  • Total Miles: 500 miles
  • Total Laps: 325 laps
  • Stage 1: First 85 laps
  • Stage 2: Second 85 laps
  • Final Stage: Remaining 155 laps

The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 is set to begin at 3 PM ET and will air live on FOX.

What to Watch for in Atlanta

With all of the racing action heading into the first weekend of June, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on in Atlanta:

  • Will Brad Keselowski win his 3rd race of the season?
  • Can Team Penske capture their 5th win of the year?
  • Can Toyota win their first Atlanta race since 2013?
  • Will we get a repeat winner on Sunday?
  • Can Hendrick Motorsports pick up their 10th Atlanta win all-time?
  • Can Jimmie Johnson set the all-time win mark for the QuikTrip 500?

Previous QuikTrip 500 Winners

The first Atlanta race was held in 1960 and won by Fireball Roberts. Since then, Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Bobby Labonte and Jimmie Johnson are tied with the most QuikTrip 500 wins of all-time at four apiece. The following is a list of previous QuikTrip 500 winners dating back to 2000:

  • Jerry Nadeau in 2000
  • Bobby Labonte in 2001
  • Kurt Busch in 2002
  • Jeff Gordon in 2003, 2011
  • Jimmie Johnson in 2004, 2007, 2015-2016
  • Carl Edwards in 2005, 2008
  • Tony Stewart in 2006, 2010
  • Kasey Kahne in 2009, 2014
  • Denny Hamlin in 2012
  • Kyle Busch in 2013
  • Brad Keselowski in 2017, 2019
  • Kevin Harvick in 2018

Only six active drivers have won this race before. Brad Keselowski is the reigning QuikTrip 500 winner.

NASCAR QuikTrip 500 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

  • Kevin Harvick (+500)
  • Chase Elliott (+650)
  • Kyle Busch (+750)
  • Martin Truex Jr (+800)
  • Alex Bowman (+900)
  • Joey Logano (+900)
  • Brad Keselowski (+1000)
  • Denny Hamlin (+1000)
  • Jimmie Johnson(+1200)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1400)
  • Kurt Busch (+1800)
  • Erik Jones (+2500)
  • William Byron (+2500)
  • Clint Bowyer (+4000)
  • Matt DiBenedetto (+5000)
  • Matt Kenseth (+5000)
  • Tyler Reddick (+6000)
  • Aric Almirola (+6600)
  • Austin Dillon (+8000)
  • Daniel Suarez (+10000)
  • Ryan Newman (+10000)

Betting Favorites to Win in Atlanta

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the QuikTrip 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway on June 7th:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Kevin Harvick 2 8 14 16.3 16.3 4
Chase Elliot 0 1 3 21.0 10.5 0
Kyle Busch 2 5 8 11.4 14.4 1
Martin Truex Jr. 0 4 9 15.6 16.9 4
Alex Bowman 0 0 0 26.5 23.2 0

Kevin Harvick (+500)

Harvick enters this weekend still sitting atop the driver standings with a 24 point lead over Joey Logano. Harvick saw his streak of Top 10 finishes end last weekend at Bristol after finishing 11th in the race. That’s his worse finish of the season.

Nevertheless, Harvick comes to a track where he’s had decent success at over the years. In 29 starts at AMS, Harvick has two wins, eight Top 5s, 14 Top 10s, an average finish of 16.3 and 4 DNFs. But, it’s his recent success at this track that makes him a contender to win on Sunday.

Harvick won this race in 2018. He’s also scored five straight Top 9 finishes and 11 Top 10 finishes in his last 13 trips to this track. Harvick was 4th in this race last year, 9th in 2017, 6th in 2016 and runner up in 2015. He has a 4.4 average finish in the last five QuikTrip 500 races.

I see Harvick easily finishing in the Top 10 (-435) and competing for a Top 3 (+145) spot as he will be a challenger for the checkered flag on Sunday.

Chase Elliott (+650)

Chase Elliott enters this race as the second odds on favorite to win and sitting 3rd in the driver standings. He won two races ago at Charlotte, but finished 22nd at Bristol last weekend after leading 88 laps. He also won the draw to start on the pole this Sunday.

Elliott only has four career starts at this track, however he’s never finished worse than 19th which was last year in this race. He has three Top 10s and one Top 5 in the QuikTrip 500. Furthermore, Elliott’s 10.5 average finish leads all active drivers with three or more starts.

I believe Elliott will be a Top 10 car (-360) on Sunday. However, I have a hard time thinking he will win this race. Yes, Elliott is a very talented driver and someone I enjoy rooting for, but he’s yet to finish higher than 5th at this track.

I can see Elliott challenging for a Top 5 finish (+105), but I don’t see him in the Top 3 (+175) or winning this race.

Kyle Busch (+750)

It’s not often that we see Kyle Busch this low on the list of betting odds. But, the reigning Cup Champion has been slow out of the gates this season. He finished 4th last weekend at Bristol after being the heavy favorite going into the race. He even led 100 laps, but that only helped him move up to 9th in the driver standings.

Busch has five Top 5s this year, but he does have three races where he’s finished 26th or worse and one DNF.

With that said, Busch does have solid numbers at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. In 21 starts, he has two wins, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, an average finish of 14.4 and one DNF.

Busch finished 6th in this race last year and 7th in 2018 after starting on the pole. His last Top 5 finish in this race was back in 2016 when he came home 3rd. Busch’s last win came in 2013 in the fall Atlanta race. His only QuikTrip 500 victory came in 2008.

I like Busch to get a Top 10 on Sunday (-305) and a Top 5 (+120), but I have a hard time seeing the #18 car winning this race. I see his ceiling being a Top 3 finish (+190).

Martin Truex Jr (+800)

Truex’s streak of four straight Top 9 finishes on the year came to a halt when he ended up 20th in Bristol last Sunday. However, the poor showing still bumped him up to 6th in the driver standings. Unfortunately, he heads to Atlanta where he doesn’t have a lot of success at.

Truex has never won at this track and only has four Top 5s in 21 starts, which is the same number of DNFs he’s tallied. Truex did finish second in this race last year, which does give us some hope for the #19 car.

Truex’s overall numbers in Atlanta aren’t good, but his last five QuikTrip 500s have been. Over that span, Truex has five straight Top 8 finishes and a 5.6 average finish.

I like Truex to finish inside the Top 10 (-220) and challenge for a Top 5 (+170). With that said, I don’t see Truex in the Top 3 (+275) and I don’t see him winning the race. He won’t have enough horsepower or luck to beat out Harvick and his teammate Kyle Busch.

Alex Bowman (+900)

Of the betting favorites, Alex Bowman has the worst stats at this track. In four career starts, he has never finished higher than 15th, which was his result for last year’s QuikTrip 500, and he has an average finish of 23.2. Bowman has also never started higher than 16th in Atlanta.

The reason Bowman is even listed with odds this high is due to his 2020 season so far. Currently, Bowman sits 5th in the driver standings as he has one victory and a runner-up on the year. The rest of his results have been 13th or worse. He crashed out of Bristol last weekend.

I think Bowman is the most overvalued of the betting favorites. His ceiling is a Top 10 (-230) finish. And, that’s debatable. I certainly don’t see him contending for the checkered flag on Sunday as he’s never even led a lap at this track.

The Best QuikTrip 500 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the QuikTrip 500 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the Atlanta Motor Speedway, and their 2020 season so far:

Driver Wins Top 5 Top 10 Avg Start Avg Finish DNF
Brad Keselowski 2 4 7 15.8 15.1 3
Kurt Busch 3 7 14 15.2 14.9 3
Erik Jones 0 0 1 16.0 10.7 0

Brad Keselowski (+1000)

I am surprised at Keselowski’s odds being this high. He offers the best value on Sunday as he not only comes in with a lot of momentum, but is also the defending champ of this race.

For the season, Keselowski sits 4th in the driver standings as he’s 55 points behind Kevin Harvick. However, Keselowski is tied with teammate Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin for the most wins this season with two.

Yet, those two wins have come in the last three races. In fact, since NASCAR returned to action, Keselowski has four Top 7 finishes, five Top 13 finishes, and two victories. He’s clearly benefited the most from the hiatus and subsequent restart to the season.

At Atlanta Motor Speedway, Keselowski has two wins, four Top 5s, seven Top 10s, an average finish of 15.1, and three DNFs in 11 career starts. Yet, it’s his recent success at this track that has him being one of the cars to beat on Sunday.

In the last five QuikTrip 500s, Keselowski has five Top 9s, three Top 2s, and two wins. That’s a 4.4 average finish just like Kevin Harvick. Furthermore, he’s finished in the Top 3 for the last three races and has led laps in all three of them.

I expect Brad Keselowski to be at worse at Top 10 car (-240). At best, he wins this race for the second year in a row. There’s also value with taking him to finish in the Top 5 (+138) and the Top 3 (+225).

Kurt Busch (+1800)

Kurt Busch remains 10th in the driver standings, but has three straight Top 7 finishes. He was 7th at Bristol last weekend, but never could get up and contend for the checkered flag. Since coming back from hiatus, the older Busch has a 7.4 average finish.

I believe Busch can hit that mark on Sunday as he has done fairly well in Atlanta over the last 10 years. For starters, Busch has won three times at this track including the 2002 QuikTrip 500. His last Atlanta win came in 2010.

Since his last Atlanta victory, Busch has finished in the Top 13 for all nine races. Furthermore, he’s scored four Top 5s and seven Top 10s over that span.

Busch has four straight Top 8 finishes in this race as he was 3rd overall in 2019. He’s also led laps in four of his last five QuikTrip 500 appearances.

I really like Kurt Busch to be a Top 10 car (-137) and flirt with a Top 5 (+275). However, he’s going to need some late-race luck to take the checkered flag from drivers like Harvick and Keselowski.

Erik Jones (+2500)

Erik Jones comes into this weekend sitting above the Playoff cutoff in 14th position. He was 5th last weekend in Bristol, which was a good result for a tough track. Jones has three Top 8 finishes since NASCAR returned to action and four Top 11s.

Jones has only raced in Atlanta just three times. Yet, he’s never finished worse than 14th overall. Additionally, his 10.7 average finish is the second best among qualified active drivers just behind Chase Elliott.

Furthermore, Jones was 7th in this race last year. I see him definitely cracking the Top 10 (-106) again this weekend. I can also see him flirting with a Top 5 (+425). However, like with Kurt Busch, Jones is going to need some things to go his way late in the race to contend for a checkered flag.

The Top Longshot to Win the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500

Matt Kenseth’s (+5000) return to racing has been an up and down affair. His first race back, Darlington, saw the #42 car finish 10th. However, he then had three straight finishes outside of the Top 20. Last weekend, Kenseth was 16th at Bristol and still sits 32nd in the driver standings.

Kenseth is my longshot pick of the week due to his past success in Atlanta. He has the most Top 10s out of all active drivers with 17. He also has the second most Top 5s among active drivers with 11. Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with 14 Top 5s and 5 wins at this track.

Kenseth’s last race at this track was in 2017 and he finished 3rd. He has three Top 5 finishes in his last four trips to Atlanta.

I like Kenseth to crack the Top 10 (+175) on Sunday. However, I’m not sure if he has what it takes to compete with the favorites this weekend. Kenseth seems to be lacking success late in the race.

QuikTrip 500 Checkered Flag

There are many drivers that race well at the 1.5 mile tracks. Martin Truex Jr. is an example of this. He’s really performed well at this distance for his career. I expect him to crack the Top 5, but I just don’t see him winning on Sunday since he’s never won this race before.

The same can be said for Chase Elliott. Although he’s racing well at this distance and on the year, he’s also not won in Atlanta before. So, I don’t see him winning on Sunday.

That leaves me with three drivers to compete for the checkered flag: Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch. Let me also say this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kurt Busch contending late in the race. I just see him getting edged out.

Until Kyle Busch wins a race this season, I can’t pick him to win right now. So, that leaves me with the last two QuikTrip 500 winners.

Keselowski has the most momentum coming into this weekend, but I just don’t see him winning on Sunday. It would be his second win in a row this season, third in 2020, and his third QuikTrip 500 victory in the last four races. He’s capable of doing it, but I am going to give the edge to Kevin Harvick in this one.

Harvick is the 2018 winner of this race and is on top of the driver standings. He’s already won this season and races really well at this distance. I expect the #4 car to be really strong and to hold off Keselowski and one of the Busch brothers late in the race.

My Top 5 Drivers

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Kyle Busch
  • Chase Elliott
  • Martin Truex Jr.

QuikTrip 500 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings:

Car Number of Race Winner

  • Even (-245)
  • Odd (+180)

Of my Top 5 drivers, Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott are odd numbers. That leaves Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick as even numbers. Furthermore, Alex Bowman and Joey Logano, who are high on the list of betting favorites, are also even numbers.

I believe the race will come down to Keselowski and Harvick. Fortunately, for this prop bet, they’re both even numbers.

Car Number of Race Winner –Even (-245)

Car Number of Race Winner

  • Over 16.5 (+100)
  • Under 16.5 (-130)

Of my Top 5 drivers, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are Over 16.5. That leaves Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski as drivers Under 16.5. Furthermore, Kurt Busch (#1) is also Under 16.5.

I believe Harvick or Keselowski will win this race, so I’m feeling good about the winner being a car Under 16.5.

Car Number of Race Winner –Under 16.5 (-130)

Manufacturer of Race Winner

  • Ford (+140)
  • Chevrolet (+170)
  • Toyota (+225)

In my Top 5 drivers, two are Fords (Keselowski, Harvick), one is Chevy (Elliott) and two are Toyotas (Busch and Truex Jr.).

For this prop bet, I like Ford to win. In addition to my race favorites Keselowski and Harvick, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are also Ford cars. I believe Logano is a Top 10 car and Blaney could sneak in.

I do see value with Chevy especially with Chase Elliott, Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch all driving for this manufacture. Additionally, Chevy has won five of the last 10 QuikTrip 500 races. Toyota has won this race since 2013.

With that said, Ford has taken the last three QuikTrip 500s in a row and I see it being a 4th straight.

Manufacturer of Race Winner –Ford (+140)

Team of Race Winner

  • Hendrick Motor Sports (+240)
  • Joe Gibbs Racing (+240)
  • Team Penske (+325)
  • Stewart-Haas Racing (+400)
  • Chip Ganassi Racing (+1400)
  • Any Other Team (+2500)
  • Richard Childress racing (+3300)
  • JTG Daughtery Racing (+5000)
  • Roush Fenway Racing (+6000)

Hendrick Motor Sports holds the record with 9 wins in this race, and 14 wins at this track, but I don’t see Elliott, Bowman, Byron or Johnson winning on Sunday. I like Joe Gibbs Racing to win most weekends, but this race is a bit outside of their reach.

The value comes with Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing. Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney all drive for Team Penske. While Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer drive for Stewart-Haas Racing.

Since I’m giving the edge to Harvick on Sunday over Keselowski, that means I am going with Stewart-Haas Racing to win this weekend over Team Penske.

Team of Race Winner –Stewart-Haas Racing (+400)

QuikTrip 500 Betting Recap

Betting Value:

  • Brad Keselowski (+1000)
  • Kurt Busch (+1800)
  • Erik Jones (+2500)

Longshot

  • Matt Kenseth (+5000)

Winner

  • Kevin Harvick (+500)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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