On Sunday, July 21st, NASCAR will be live from the New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, New Hampshire, for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301.
This is NASCAR’s 20th race of the season, and there are only six races after this one until the playoffs begin. The summer temperatures are not only heating up the tracks, but they’re also heating up the standings.
Kurt Busch’s win last weekend in Kentucky cemented his spot in the playoffs with a handful of drivers all still battling to qualify before the postseason begins. These next six weeks will be exciting racing action.
For this weekend’s race, NASCAR betting sites have listed Kyle Busch as the favorite with Martin Truex Jr. close behind. Now that we have taken the starting line, let’s examine these racing odds to see if there are any value bets and to try to predict a winner.
The New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS) is an oval track with a lap distance of 1.058 miles. Nicknamed “The Magic Mile,” this track often provides a backdrop for some exciting NASCAR racing. The track first opened in 1990, but NASCAR didn’t hold a race there until 1993.
This weekend’s race breaks down as follows:
The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is set to begin at 3 PM ET and will air live on the NBC Sports Network.
With all of the excitement heading into the 20th race of the season, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at New Hampshire:
The first NASCAR race held at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS) was in July 1993, and it was won by Rusty Wallace.
Multiple drivers went on to win this race over the next few years before Jeff Burton won three straight races from 1997 to 1999. Burton holds the record for the most Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 wins with three.
There are numerous drivers with at least two wins, and four of them will be active this weekend.
The following is a list of the previous Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 winners dating back to 2003:
Harvick, Newman, Johnson, Hamlin, Logano, Keselowski, and both Busch drivers will be racing in New Hampshire this weekend.
The following Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301:
|Driver||Wins||Top 5||Top 10||Avg Start||Avg Finish||DNF|
|Martin Truex Jr.||0||6||11||11.0||12.6||1|
Busch comes into New Hampshire still sitting second in the driver standings after finishing second at Kentucky last weekend. He was edged out by his brother Kurt Busch at the finishing line after the two drivers banged against each other throughout the final lap.
The runner-up finish extended Kyle’s winless streak to six races. He hasn’t won since Pocono but is still tied with his teammate Martin Truex Jr. for the most wins on the season with four.
At New Hampshire, Busch has been one of the best drivers in recent years. He’s tied with Harvick for the most top 5s (11) and has won at this track on three occasions. Over the last six years, Busch has finished 8th or better in 9 of the last 11 races. Kyle has led laps in five of the last races at New Hampshire and continues to lead the odds for being a weekly race favorite.
Kyle is the man to beat at this track on Sunday. Will anyone be able to get the better of him?
Although he has four wins on the year, Truex currently sits 6th in the driver standings after falling one spot last weekend. He’s finished 19th and 22nd over the last two weeks despite being one of the betting favorites each week.
Since his win at Sonoma, Truex has a 16.6 average finish over the last three races. He could really use a bounce-back performance this weekend, but that’s easier said than done.
Of the betting favorites, Truex is the only driver to have never won at New Hampshire. He’s also the only one in the top 7 within the standings to have never won at this track.
Martin has been consistent in this race as he finished 4th last year and 3rd in 2017. He’s also finished within the top 17 in the last 15 New Hampshire races.
One more reason why Truex could be a candidate to win on Sunday is the fact that he’s led laps in the last five New Hampshire races just like Kyle Busch. In the last four races, he’s finished 7th or better.
I like Truex to have a top 10 car, but I’m not sure if he will have enough “magic” to beat his teammates this weekend.
Another weekend, and another track where Harvick is a favorite. Unfortunately, I’m still avoiding the #4 car until he takes his first checkered flag of 2019.
Last weekend, Harvick finished 22nd at Kentucky, which was the second straight weekend where he has finished outside the top 20. Despite the two poor finishes, he still sits 3rd in the driver standings.
However, he’s currently 6th in the playoff standings.
New Hampshire is a track where Harvick can possibly break his winless streak and get back into victory circle. He’s the reigning Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 champ and also won the fall New Hampshire race in 2016. Last year, NASCAR decided to eliminate two races at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
With that said, Harvick has six top-5 finishes in the last seven New Hampshire races and is tied or holds the record for active drivers in top 5s (11), most races (35), and most laps (10,181).
I expect Harvick to run well this weekend, but I don’t have confidence in him winning.
Like with Harvick, Keselowski has had two poor finishes over the last two races. At Daytona, two weeks ago, Brad finished 39th. Last weekend, he finished 20th.
It’s the third time in the last four races that he has finished 18th or worse. Keselowski was 3rd in the standings prior to the last two races. Now, he’s slipped down one spot to 4th.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been a good track for Keselowski. In 18 career races, he has finished in the top 10 on 11 occasions. He also has one victory and an 11.1 average finish.
Last year, Keselowski was 32nd overall. It was only the third time he’s ever finished below 18th. It was also the first time in 15 races at this track where he finished outside of the top 15.
Keselowski is a model for consistency at this track. But will he be good enough to pull off the victory on Sunday?
If ever there was a time where a driver could use a win at a track he’s raced well at over his career, it’s this weekend for Denny Hamlin. The #11 car hasn’t been to victory circle since Texas in Week 7.
Last weekend, Hamlin ran well in Kentucky to finish 5th overall, which boosted him one spot in the standings to 5th overall. Hamlin has averaged 11th or better in 13 races this year.
At New Hampshire, Hamlin has won three times, including taking the checkered flag in this race on two occasions: 2007 and 2017.
In 25 career starts at this track, Hamlin has finished 15th or better on 22 occasions. Furthermore, he has the best average finish of 10.2 among all active drivers. I really like Hamlin’s chances this weekend. I believe he could compete with his teammate Kyle Busch for a potential victory.
The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for this week’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 due to their current betting odds, their past success at this track, and their 2019 season so far:
|Driver||Wins||Top 5||Top 10||Avg Start||Avg Finish||DNF|
It’s not often that I list Bowyer as a value play or even as a potential candidate to win a race, but this weekend, I do believe he’s a sleeper pick.
Bowyer does have two wins at New Hampshire and a respectable 16.6 average finish. He’s had a few rough races over the last three years, but Bowyer is a veteran driver that can turn things around in one race.
The perfect example of turning on a dime is Bowyer’s race last weekend. Clint had crashed in three of the previous four races heading into last Saturday’s race at Kentucky before crossing the finish line in 6th. That result bumped him up in the standings to 14th overall, and it also bumped him up into my betting value section for this weekend.
As mentioned above, Kurt Busch edged out his brother Kyle last weekend at Kentucky to get the checkered flag. It was his first win of 2019, and it boosted him up to 6th in the driver standings.
The win also pretty much locked Kurt into the NASCAR playoffs in September. Busch has finished 13th or better in the last six races, and I expect him to keep that streak going this weekend.
At New Hampshire, Kurt has 15 top 10s along with three victories. He started on the pole in this race last year and led 94 laps before finishing 8th overall. It was the third top 8 finish for Kurt at this track in the last four races.
Kurt tends to be streaky at The Magic Mile. If you look over his career results at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, you will see that he tends to finish either really well or poorly.
Right now, he seems to be in a good streak of finishes.
I like his chances this weekend to at least finish inside the top 10. Last weekend, I picked him to finish top 5 and as a sleeper to win the race. I went with Kyle but said to watch out for Kurt. This weekend, I believe both Busch brothers will run well once again.
Last weekend, Jimmie Johnson finished 30th at Kentucky, which was his worst finish since Talladega ten races ago. It snapped a streak of four straight top-15 finishes and a streak of eight top-19 finishes. The poor finish dropped Johnson one spot in the driver standings to 14th.
However, New Hampshire is a track where Johnson could bust out another top-5 finish on the season.
In 33 starts, JJ has three wins, ten top 5s, and 22 top 10s, which is the record for active drivers. He has a fantastic 10.6 average finish and just one DNF. He has six straight top 14 finishes at NHMS and should extend that streak this Sunday.
I really like Johnson to bounce back from last weekend’s poor running and snag a top-10 spot this weekend. If he can be near the front in the final laps, then anything can happen for the seven-time NASCAR champion.
Ryan Newman (+10000) is my favorite longshot driver in NASCAR. That’s largely due to his past success at the tracks that I pick him to be my betting longshot at. And this Sunday is a track where Newman makes a lot of sense. In 33 career starts at New Hampshire, Newman has three wins, seven top 5s, 19 top 10s, an average finish of 13.7, and has started on the pole seven times.
Newman has also been racing well on the season with four top-9 finishes in the last five races, including a top 5 at Daytona two weekends ago.
Ryan is 17th in the driver standings, which means he has a decent shot at making the playoffs if he keeps up the consistency. He could really lock himself in the playoffs with a win in the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 this weekend.
The following NASCAR prop bets require bettors to pick the winning driver out of head-to-head matchups at New Hampshire on Sunday, July 21st. These driver matchups and betting odds are courtesy of 5Dimes.
|Driver||Kurt Busch||Ryan Blaney|
I’ve already laid out an argument for Kurt Busch this weekend, so let’s take a look at Ryan Blaney and his career success at this track.
In six races, he has two top 10s and a decent 13.5 average finish. The last two races at this track, Blaney has finished 9th and 7th overall. Both he and Kurt Busch have been driving well over the last two months on the season, but I really like Kurt’s experience at this track over Blaney.
Additionally, Kurt is coming off a victory and will have a lot of momentum on his side. Blaney finished 13th overall last weekend. Also, Blaney sits 11th in the standings while Kurt is 6th and climbing.
For this bet, take Kurt Busch to beat Ryan Blaney in a head-to-head battle.
|Driver||Jimmie Johnson||William Byron|
William Byron might sit three spots ahead of Jimmie Johnson in the driver standings, but I don’t like his chances to finish higher than Johnson at New Hampshire on Sunday.
Byron has only raced at this track on one occasion. Johnson has 33 career races at NHMS and dominates the stats compared to Byron. Byron finished 18th at Kentucky, which was better than Johnson’s finish of 30th overall. However, Johnson’s experience at this short track is going to be the difference.
Byron has had success at speedways and 1.5-mile tracks, but he has yet to master the 1-mile, short tracks. Johnson has three wins and the most top 10s among active drivers at New Hampshire. He’s also won the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 on two occasions.
I’m taking JJ to win this driver’s battle on Sunday.
This short track is a different breed of animal, and it takes an experienced, aggressive driver to have success.
That’s why my top 10 drivers list features experienced stars in the sport: Kyle Larson, both Busch brothers, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, and Kevin Harvick.
Of this list, I really like Hamlin, both Busch brothers, and Keselowski to compete for the victory.
From those four, I think one of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers will get the win. The smart money is on Kyle Busch to win. That’s the safe play here, but if you want more value and bang for your buck, then go with Denny Hamlin.
I’m taking the #11 car to get the win at New Hampshire on Sunday.
Winner: Denny Hamlin (+1000)
Longshot: Ryan Newman (+10000)
My Top 5 Drivers
Every week, NASCAR releases 10 prop bets for racing fans to choose the correct answers, earn points, and potentially win some cool prizes. For the 20th race of the season, there are a few props that I really like.
The last two New Hampshire races have seen the under hit twice. However, the over hit four straight times prior to those two races. When looking back at the last 20 races at this track, the over has hit 15 times. For this prop bet, I’m going with over 10.5 lead changes.
I believe that Chevy’s winning streak will come to an end this weekend. Over the last 12 New Hampshire races, Chevy has only won one time. Ford and Toyota have won the other 11 times. This weekend, I believe Ford’s Keselowski and Toyota’s Hamlin and Busch are the favorites to win the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 on Sunday. Take the “No” for this prop bet.
Larson has an average finish of 10.7 in nine career starts at this track. He did finish 12th last year but has five top 10 finishes on his resume. I like Larson’s chances to crack the top 10 this weekend as I believe he’s starting to heat up on the year. Larson has two top 4s and three top 10s in the last four races this season. Go with Larson to race well on Sunday.
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