Game of Thrones Season 7 Odds: Who Will Be the First to Die?

by Kevin Roberts
on July 14, 2017

The summer is dark and full of terrors. At least, it will be soon, as season seven of hit HBO fantasy drama Game of Thrones is scheduled to return on July 16th. The official return of Cersei, Jon Snow and all of the characters we either love to hate or simply love arrives in mere days and with it could come a new death in a show known for killing the ones we love.

At this point, you’re either a die hard fan of the show that is fully caught up, or you’re just looking ahead to see if you want to go back and watch. We’re far beyond the point of spoiler warnings, though, so read at your own peril.

We all know by now that Jon Snow was dead but now isn’t and that Cersei worked hard to get herself back to the throne. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess, but death is at our doorstep and the knock is coming. What does that mean for some of our favorite characters? Probably nothing, at least initially. But Game of Thrones usually doesn’t waste much time before ripping our hearts out with a huge death and we can probably expect someone to perish relatively early.

It’s worth noting that the final two seasons of Game of Thrones have been cut down to just 13 episodes, so things are going to come at us pretty fast and even the biggest characters will quickly become vulnerable. But who will die first when Game of Thrones Season 7 touches down on HBO on July 16th?

Game of Thrones Death Odds

Most entertainment betting sites will produce updated Game of Thrones death odds at some point, but for now, all we have to go on are the Game of Thrones odds over at Ladbrokes (who also happen to offer two other GOT bets involving the Iron Throne). Here are the latest odds for who will die first in season 7 of GOT:

  • Any Sand Snakes – Obara, Nymeria, Tyene, Sarella, Elia, Obella, Dorea, Loreze (6/4)
  • Yara Greyjoy (4/1)
  • Ellaria Sand (9/2)
  • Petyr Baelish (5/1)
  • Melisandre (6/1)
  • Theon Greyjoy (7/1)
  • Euron Greyjoy (9/1)
  • The Hound (10/1)
  • The Mountain (10/1)
  • Brienne of Tarth (12/1)
  • Olenna Tyrell (12/1)
  • Ser Davos Seaworth (12/1)
  • Samwell Tarly (14/1)
  • Cersei Lannister (16/1)
  • Jorah Mormont (16/1)
  • Bran Stark (20/1)
  • Jaime Lannister (20/1)
  • Arya Stark (66/1)
  • Daenerys Targaryen (100/1)
  • Jon Snow (100/1)
  • Sansa Stark (100/1)
  • Tyrion Lannister (100/1)

Before we really dive into who might die first in Game of Thrones season 7, we need to consider a couple of things. For one, this bet isn’t asking us who will die at some point. It’s asking which one person will die first. GOT is great at ripping life away from us when we least expect it, so we know that anyone is fair game, but for the sake of this story and the momentum we have built up, the second aspect we probably need to consider is that certain players in the “great game” are probably safe for at least an episode or two.

One other thing to think about is that just because Game of Thrones kills a lot of characters and the show returns soon, doesn’t mean we’re necessarily going to see a death – much less a big one – right away in episode one of season 7.

I also think that as ruthless and random as Game of Thrones deaths seem at times, they actually end up being rather calculated and necessary. The Red Wedding was absolutely shocking when it happened, but Rob Stark and his mother played with fire and got burned. Their deaths – along with Ned Stark’s – were all necessary to fuel the fires in Arya, Sansa and of course, Jon Snow. We wouldn’t be where we are right now with all of their character arcs, had that tragedy not taken place.

You can really make that case right down the line, which should force us to think – which character is huge and necessary right now, but arguably holds more power as a death that serves as a precursor to something even bigger?

They’re Safe (Probably)

To be a little more specific, it is kind of interesting to think about the show’s current trajectory and how the creators could completely flip the script. The best way to start would be to have a huge power shift by completely shaking things up at the bottom of the current Game of Thrones death odds.

We’ve already seen Jon Snow, Sansa Stark, and Daenerys Targaryen survive what should have been actual deaths and they all seem to be headed for predictable endings. Is GOT going to just keep them on a calculated pace, or will they throw a massive curveball and kill one of them early on?

Probably not, right? These are understatedly two of the three biggest stars on the show (Tyrion might be the third) and it makes too much sense for one or both to end up ruling all of the kingdoms. Then again, the death of either would dramatically change everything and no one would really see it coming.

We need to brace for crazy things like that, which is why these options with insanely long odds absolutely are worth our time and a cursory bet or three. That being said, I’m not really biting here, as there is still a lot of story to be told and killing any of the 100/1 odds options off right away in episode one seems rather rash – even for Game of Thrones.

I’m also not overly worried about Samwell, Davos, Brienne, Cersei, Jorah, Bran, Jaime, Arya, Littlefinger, Tyrion or Olenna Tyrell – at least not yet.

Samwell is off in a library somewhere hunting down clues to help the good guys win and he’s just in general far away from any real danger. Davos is a loyal servant and while he’s admittedly not a good fighter, he’s with the good guys and is a fantastic voice of reason the show might want to hold onto. The same goes for Brienne, who has a friend on the other side in Jaime Lannister. Jaime himself is a huge piece to the show’s puzzle and while he seemingly is constantly in danger, he might be too big of a star to kill off in episode one.

I’m not too keen on Arya dying yet, either. She has gone through so much and is now an accomplished assassin. It’d be pretty annoying for her to survive so much and get so far, only to see it ultimately be a giant waste of time. The same goes for Cersei. She most certainly won’t reign forever and she won’t last through the duration of this series, but she just got back into power. That should be a pretty big part of everything we see in season 7, at least for a little while.

Bran is someone else who has had a ton of story devoted to them and has unfinished business. Him dying right away in season 7 would feel like a waste. Littlefinger (Baelish) is probably closing in on his own demise, but he’s such a brilliant character and he still yields some power, so I’m not sure he’ll be dispatched so quickly. He’s had his hands in so many evil works, too, so his situation feels more like a house of cards thing. I also don’t fear a quick exit for Tyrion Lannister, who despite his small stature has been one of the most powerful characters in the show. He’s on the most formidable team at the moment, too, so at least early on he’s probably safe.

Truth be told, it’s probably not a bad idea to bet on most of the huge stars making it to the final season.

It wouldn’t make much sense to carve out this amazing story and get to the final leg of the marathon with nobody to market it, right

The other two middling options would be Olenna Tyrell and Jorah Mormont. Tyrell is an enemy of the state in Cersei’s eyes, but she holds a lot of power and understandably will want vengeance for her family members being killed. I don’t see her going out quietly or early. Jorah could simply be left for dead, which is why I don’t fear him in this spot, either. He could succumb to grayscale without us ever having to see it, or he could take heed to his queen’s orders and actually stumble upon a cure and return to Khaleesi’s side.

I’ll be the first to admit that all of this logic could backfire in an instant, but on the surface, these don’t seem like the best starting points for the show in season seven in terms of characters to kill off.

They’re in Danger

Everyone is in danger on this show, truthfully, but there are some that stand out more than others. Before looking at the latest Game of Thrones season 7 death odds, I would have never thought of the sand snakes characters. We have strength in numbers with this bet, as we have numerous outs and they bleed out of an ongoing story. GOT could easily kill off one or more of them to start off season 7, which could give us some new blood being spilled and could also help move one of the many storylines along.

Simply based on the numbers (not really the odds or impact), this is a viable bet to get the ball rolling. We also need to fear for every Greyjoy known to man. The niece and nephew of Euron are going to meet up at some point and somebody in that trio is going to die, giving way to one ruler of the Iron Islands.

The only question is, are we going to see that come to a head right away in season 7, and will that death be the first one we see? I’m not so sure, as Euron Greyjoy has been built up as the next Bolton Ramsay, so if he’s going to be so evil, it wouldn’t make sense to kill him off so quickly. Because of that, it might be a solid bet to go against any of the Greyjoy’s dying in episode one.

Melisandre is certainly a viable contender to die, as she’s probably worn out her usefulness on the show and Davos did tell her that if he ever saw her again, he’d kill her. Perhaps she shows her face again and Davos ends up being a man of his word or maybe in retreat she runs into harm’s way elsewhere.

Another realistic option is what feels like an inevitable clash between brothers, The Mountain and The Hound. Cersei’s right-hand man may be needed to defend her at some point, and perhaps we get to see that early on with both of these brothers facing off. One final clash between the two feels unavoidable and it could serve to strengthen Cersei’s hold or loosen it dramatically.

Who Will Die First in Game of Thrones Season 7?

As you can see, we have a lot of options and even the ones we try to explain away with sound logic probably aren’t truly “safe”. That’s the harsh reality when you look at a show like Game of Thrones, especially when we’re down to the final two seasons being stretches across just 13 more episodes.

The option that stands out the most is the Sand Snakes. As we touched on before, you’ve got strength in numbers with this bet, but the odds obviously aren’t enticing. The logic is there, too, as just about everyone wants them dead at this point and they’re also little more than pawns in the great game.

Is anyone from Dorne a realistic threat to Cersei or anyone else? No, but others will want them dead and/or will see them as a stepping stone to greater rule. I see them being a necessary casualty at some point, if for no other reason than to simply close up some loops.

But they aren’t the best bet to target. The odds aren’t good and they’re not big enough of a death. If you want some upside and a little shock mixed together, I’d instead target Baelish at 5/1. Yara or any of the Greyjoy’s are at risk and I actually love the character of Littlefinger, but he’s shown his hand and has made too many enemies. I know I listed him among the “probably” variety in terms of surviving, but of that group, he is closest to the plank and he may be forced to walk it.

I’d certainly bet on the Sand Snakes due to the numerous outs, but I like Petyr Baelish as a fun pick with some upside, as well as a death many GOT fans will relish.

Pick: Petyr Baelish (5/1)
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