Heads or Tails: Super Bowl 54 Coin Toss Prop Bets

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Super Bowl Field and NFL Coin in Hand

One of the most popular prop bets to wager on at the Super Bowl is the coin toss. That might surprise some of you, but to experienced sports bettors it makes a lot of sense. If you think about it, this is a 50-50 wager, which means there’s an equal chance that either outcome can hit.

Additionally, the odds for both Heads and Tails tend to be equal and offer solid betting value.

To some, the coin toss might seem so small in the grand scheme of things, but it sets the tone for the game and could end up being one of the biggest decisions a coach can make. With that in mind, Super Bowl betting sites have released odds and props for this year’s SB 54 coin toss.

What Will the Outcome of Coin Toss Be?

  • Heads (-105)
  • Tails (-105)

In 53 Super Bowls, Tails holds the all-time advantage over Heads with a record of 28 and 25. Tails has hit in five of the last six Super Bowls. Prior to that, Heads hit in five straight Super Bowls.

Over the last 22 Super Bowls, Tails has gone 14-8. I say all of this to set you up with a Heads pick for this wager. Heads has to be due for one right? Both options have value, so you either believe that Tails is going to keep winning or that Heads finally gets the nod.

Bet: Heads (-105)
Year Super Bowl # Coin Toss
2011 Super Bowl 45 Heads
2012 Super Bowl 46 Heads
2013 Super Bowl 47 Heads
2014 Super Bowl 48 Tails
2015 Super Bowl 49 Tails
2016 Super Bowl 50 Tails
2017 Super Bowl 51 Tails
2018 Super Bowl 52 Heads
2019 Super Bowl 53 Tails
Bet: Heads (-105)

Will the Team Making Coin Toss Call Get it Right?

  • Yes (-105)
  • No (-105)

Since the Super Bowl is played at a neutral site, there’s no home field advantage for either team. With that said, it can also be confusing as to who is technically considered the home team and who is considered the road team.

The NFL decided several years ago to alternate the home and away teams by designating the AFC as the home team in the even years and the NFC as the home team in the odd years. Since this year is Super Bowl 54, that means the AFC team (Chiefs) will be the home team because it’s an even number.

Over the last 15 years, the team that has called the coin toss has been accurate only six times. In Super Bowl 53, the Patriots called the coin toss, but got it wrong. Not since Super Bowl 49 has the team calling the coin toss got it right.

Year Super Bowl # Call Coin Toss Win Coin Toss
2005 Super Bowl 39 Eagles Eagles
2006 Super Bowl 40 Steelers Seahawks
2007 Super Bowl 41 Bears Bears
2008 Super Bowl 42 Patriots Giants
2009 Super Bowl 43 Cardinals Cardinals
2010 Super Bowl 44 Colts Saints
2011 Super Bowl 45 Packers Packers
2012 Super Bowl 46 Patriots Patriots
2013 Super Bowl 47 49ers Ravens
2014 Super Bowl 48 Broncos Seahawks
2015 Super Bowl 49 Seahawks Seahawks
2016 Super Bowl 50 Broncos Panthers
2017 Super Bowl 51 Patriots Falcons
2018 Super Bowl 52 Eagles Patriots
2019 Super Bowl 53 Patriots Rams

For this prop bet, take the “No” option. The recent trends show us that the team calling the coin toss at the Super Bowl tends to get it wrong more times than they get it right.

Bet: No (-105)

Will the Team that Wins Coin Toss Also Win Super Bowl?

  • Yes (-105)
  • No (-105)

If you look over the last 15 Super Bowls, the team that loses the coin toss has actually gone on to win the Super Bowl more times than the team that gets the coin toss correct. In fact, the losing coin toss team has won 10 of the last 15 Super Bowls including a streak of five straight games.

Not since Super Bowl 48, has the team that won the coin toss go on to win the game. That year, the Seattle Seahawks defeated the Denver Broncos by the score of 43 to 8.  When you look at the all-time numbers, the team that loses the coin toss has won 29 of 53 Super Bowls.

Year Super Bowl # Win Coin Toss Win Super Bowl
2005 Super Bowl 39 Eagles Patriots
2006 Super Bowl 40 Seahawks Steelers
2007 Super Bowl 41 Bears Colts
2008 Super Bowl 42 Giants Giants
2009 Super Bowl 43 Cardinals Steelers
2010 Super Bowl 44 Saints Saints
2011 Super Bowl 45 Packers Packers
2012 Super Bowl 46 Patriots Giants
2013 Super Bowl 47 Ravens Ravens
2014 Super Bowl 48 Seahawks Seahawks
2015 Super Bowl 49 Seahawks Patriots
2016 Super Bowl 50 Panthers Broncos
2017 Super Bowl 51 Falcons Patriots
2018 Super Bowl 52 Patriots Eagles
2019 Super Bowl 53 Rams Patriots

For this prop bet, I would also go with the “No” option. There’s too much data going against the team that wins the coin toss. With five straight victories for the losing coin toss team, and 10 out of the last 15, the smart play is on the “no.”

Bet: No (-105)

Will Team Making Coin Toss Call Defer or Receive Ball?

  • Receive the Ball (+375)
  • Defer to 2nd Half (-650)

In 2008, the NFL changed their coin toss rule to allow teams the choice of receiving, kicking or deferring to the second half. Prior to that rule change, coaches were only allowed to choose kickoff or receive. At that time, the coaches were choosing to receive the ball roughly 99% of the time.

This rule change also impacted the NFL championship game as well. In nine of the last 10 Super Bowls, the team that won the coin toss chose to defer nine of ten times. Only the Saints in 2009 chose to receive the ball on the opening kickoff.

Last year, the Patriots got the coin toss call wrong and the Rams deferred to get the ball in the 2nd half. Unfortunately, it didn’t help the Rams or the viewers as Super Bowl 53 was arguably the most boring Super Bowl in recent memory as the Patriots won 13 to 3.

This Super Bowl, the Chiefs will make the call for the coin toss. In 2019, the Chiefs won the coin toss 11 times and deferred all 11 times. They won the coin toss in the AFC Championship game and also deferred. I expect the Chiefs to adopt the same philosophy for the Super Bowl if they win the coin toss.

If the 49ers win the coin toss, then I expect them to also defer. From 2008 to 2018, the 49ers deferred 75% of the time. However, in 2018, the 49ers chose to defer 100% of the time.

It’s rather surprising that the odds aren’t greater for these betting options. With that said, the smart play is on the coin toss winner deferring to the second half.

Bet: Defer to 2nd half (-650)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...

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