UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar Betting Odds, Underdogs, and Picks

By Rick Rockwell in MMA on July 26, 2019

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Minute Read

On Saturday, July 27th, the UFC will be live from the Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, for UFC 240 also known as UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar. This UFC PPV features a main event featherweight championship fight as Max Holloway puts his title on the line against former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar. The co-main event of the night will see Cris Cyborg return to the octagon to take on Felicia Spencer.

In total, UFC 240 is scheduled to have 12 fights on the card. The first round of prelims is set to begin at 6:15 PM ET with the PPV portion of the event set to begin at 10 PM ET. UFC betting sites have released their odds for the full slate of UFC 240 fights. Let’s step inside the betting octagon and examine these current MMA betting lines, identify possible betting value or upsets, and KO our picks. All betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.

UFC 240 Early Prelims

The opening round of preliminary fights will consist of three bouts and is set to begin at 6:15 PM ET on ESPN+.

Tanner Boser (16-5-1) vs Giacomo Lemos (6-0)

  • Tanner Boser (-170)
  • Giacomo Lemos (+145)

Boser comes into this fight as the favorite despite only going 1-1-1 in his last three fights. Prior to that, he was 2-3 during a 13-month span. Boser has spent most of his time fighting overseas, but has seen some reputable competition. 10 of his 16 fights have ended via stoppage, with eight of those coming via KO/TKO. Boser last fought two months ago and won via TKO. He also captured the Unified MMA heavyweight title during that fight.

Lemos comes into this bout undefeated with fights in Brazil and overseas. He’s stopped all six of his opponents with five of those coming via TKO/KO. Lemos hasn’t fought anyone credible and appears to be more of a physical specimen rather than a technical fighter.

This bout is perfectly placed as the opener for UFC 240. Neither fighter has a lot of potential to move up the ladder in the UFC. Boser is from Canada, so I expect Tanner to get the crowd going right out of the gates. I also see Boser winning this fight due to being a better fighter than Lemos. However, in the big picture, that’s not saying a lot.

UFC Bet:  Tanner Boser (-170)

Erik Koch (15-6) vs Kyle Stewart (11-2)

  • Erik Koch (+100)
  • Kyle Stewart (-120)

This fight is close in odds and close on paper as well. Erik Koch used to be a divisional contender when he first joined the UFC in 2011. Unfortunately, the former WEC stalwart has lost five of his last seven fights including two straight. What’s even more concerning is his history of injuries, and Koch actually hasn’t fought in 18 months. Since May 2014, Koch has fought only four times in a little over five years. Eight of his 15 professional wins have come via submission.

Stewart last fought six months ago when he lost via submission in his UFC debut against Chance Rencountre. Prior to that, Stewart was 11-1 and a former title contender in the LFA. Stewart will have the height advantage in this fight, and he should also have the strength and power advantages as well. Kyle is a natural welterweight, whereas Koch is coming up in weight for this fight.

If you’re planning to bet on UFC 240, I believe that Stewart is going to win this contest. He’s the bigger fighter and has enough skills to smother his opponent with vicious strikes. I’m not extremely confident in Stewart, because he has lost two of three fights and doesn’t have the resume that Koch has. With that said, until Koch can win again, I’m going with Stewart to win via UD.

UFC Bet: Kyle Stewart (-120)

Gillian Robertson (6-3) vs Sarah Frota (9-1)

  • Gillian Robertson (-120)
  • Sarah Frota (+100)

In the first women’s fight of the night, Gillian Robertson is the slight betting favorite over Sarah Frota. Robertson is from Canada and will get the crowd advantage. She last fought in February and won via submission, which was the fifth win of her career. Robertson has gone 3-1 inside the octagon with wins over Molly McCann and Emily Whitmire.

Frota is from Brazil and is looking to bounce back after losing in her UFC fight five months ago. She ended up suffering a Split Decision loss and showed a big hole in her takedown defense. That loss was the first of her career, as Frota racked up nine wins prior to joining the UFC. Seven of her nine pro wins have ended in stoppage.

This is another close fight from the UFC 240 prelims. However, I am siding with the Canadian Gillian Robertson in this one. I believe she has a strong grappling game and should score enough points per round in her takedowns on Frota. Look for a ground fight that ends up with Robertson controlling the fight for as long as it lasts. Frota will try to keep it standing where she has a striking advantage. Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening.

UFC Bet: Gillian Robertson (-120)

UFC 240 Second Set of Prelims

The second round of preliminary fights will be televised live on ESPN beginning at 8 PM ET. This part of the event will consist of four fights.

Alexandre Pantoja (21-3) vs Deiveson Figueiredo (15-1)

  • Alexandre Pantoja (-120)
  • Deiveson Figueiredo (+100)

In a growing trend for the preliminary card, we have another close fight with MMA betting sites. This bout features two flyweights looking to move up the ranks within the division. It’s actually mildly surprising that this bout is on the prelims when it has the potential for fireworks and could justify a main card slot.

Figueiredo last fought in March and suffered the first loss of his career when he was defeated by Formiga via UD. That dropped his UFC record to 4-1 and halted his impressive unbeaten streak. Figueiredo has 13 stoppages in his 15 professional wins with eight of those coming via KO/TKO. He will have the power advantage and should be able to keep this fight upright.

Pantoja is on a three-fight win streak and was last inside the octagon in April. He defeated Reis via TKO in that fight, which improved his overall UFC record to 5-1. Pantoja has a great blend of striking and grappling skills. He’s arguably the better technical striker between the two men and is a better grappler. 15 of his 21 wins have come via stoppages with eight of those by way of submission.

Both fighters offer betting value and both of them have had success striking and submitting opponents. I am leaning toward Pantoja winning, because I believe his ground game could be the difference. As long as he doesn’t eat power shots from Figueiredo, then Pantoja should either control this fight from the mat for all three rounds or find a way to force his opponent to tap out.

UFC Bet: Alexandre Pantoja (-120)

Gavin Tucker (10-1) vs Seung Woo Choi (7-2)

  • Gavin Tucker (-125)
  • Seung Woo Choi (+105)

Gavin Tucker returns to the octagon for the first time since September 2017. This nearly two-year layoff was largely due to injuries. His last fight was a loss to Rick Glenn via UD. However, that fight wasn’t close at all. Glenn beat up Tucker badly. Tucker is 1-1 inside the octagon after making his UFC debut in February 2017. Eight of Tucker’s 10 professional wins have come via stoppage.

Choi made his UFC debut in April, but lost via UD to Evloev whose superior wrestling skills controlled that fight. Choi is looking to bounce back from losing in his only octagon fight and definitely has a chance in this weekend’s bout. Five of his seven pro victories have come via KO/TKO. Choi has the striking skills and stamina to make this a long night for Tucker.

Tucker is giving up at least seven inches in reach and almost four inches in height. He hasn’t been inside the octagon for almost two years, which provides more questions than answers. I don’t think that Gavin has the wrestling skills to control Choi like Evloev did. I also have concerns as to how Tucker can get inside Choi’s reach without eating too many punches. Additionally, Choi can put out a high volume of strikes. I’m taking Sung Woo Choi to win via UD, unless he can get a TKO inside the distance.

UFC Bet: Seung Woo Choi (+105)

Hakeem Dawodu (9-1-1) vs Yoshinori Horie (8-1)

  • Hakeem Dawodu (-385)
  • Yoshinori Horie (+320)

Horie is the biggest underdog of the preliminary fights. He has a difficult matchup this weekend against Dawodu. Yoshinori has fought his entire career in Pancrase and has scored five KO/TKO victories in his eight career wins. Horie’s odds are a bit high in my opinion. I believe that online betting sites might have undervalued Horie some. He has the striking skills and athleticism to make this a competitive fight for as long as it lasts.

Dawodu entered the UFC in March 2018 to a lot of hype. He ran roughshod in the WSOF promotion and was undefeated prior to his UFC debut against Danny Henry 16 months ago. Unfortunately, Henry forced Dawodu to tap out in less than a minute. Since then, Hakeem has won two straight fights via UD. His last bout was in December 2018, so this will be his first fight of the year. Six of his nine professional victories have come via KO/TKO.

Dawodu is slightly overvalued in my opinion, but he should still win this fight. Horie will appease Dawodu’s desire to stand and strike. I don’t see Horie being able to get this fight to the mat and winning it. Both men either win via TKO/KO or go to the scorecards. With that said, it’s hard to imagine that two striking enthusiasts with knockout power will go all three rounds. I’m taking Dawodu to score the TKO win in this fight, but he needs to be cautious, because Horie has potential to upset.

UFC Bet: Yoshinori Horie (+320)

Alexis Davis (19-9) vs Viviane Araujo (7-1)

  • Alexis Davis (+210)
  • Viviane Araujo (-245)

In the second of three women’s fights at UFC 240, Alexis Davis is hoping to break her losing streak of two contests by pulling off the upset on Saturday night. The Canadian plans on using her fellow countrymen for motivation and her submission skills to try and score the victory. Davis is 6-4 inside the octagon, but has lost four of her last seven fights dating back five years when she was defeated by Ronda Rousey via KO in 16 seconds. Davis has also lost to McMann, Chookagian, and Maia.

Araujo has won four straight fights including her UFC debut two months ago. She took a fight against Bernardo on short notice and won via KO. All seven of her victories have come via stoppages. Araujo packs power in her striking arsenal. Her four submission victories also prove that Viviane is very capable of holding her own on the mat.

Oddsmakers view Araujo as a sizable favorite, and I definitely agree with this UFC 240 bet. I think that she is the better fighter at this stage of their respective careers and she should win in convincing fashion.

UFC Bet: Viviane Araujo (-245)

UFC 240 Main Card

The UFC 240 main card features five fights and is set to begin at 10 PM ET on PPV.

Marc-Andre Barriault (11-2) vs Krzysztof Jotko (20-4)

  • Marc-Andre Barriault (+145)
  • Krzysztof Jotko (-170)

One of Canada’s most popular MMA fighters is stepping back into the octagon and looking to rebound from his debut loss in May. Barriault is an excellent striker and put it all on the line in his octagon debut. Unfortunately, he was outwrestled by Sanchez, which ended up being the difference in that fight. Eight of his 11 wins have come via KO/TKO.

Jotko made his return to the UFC after a year away from the octagon. He had suffered three straight losses, which snapped a five-fight win streak. All three losses came against top notch opponents. Jotko is a rugged grappler and can grind out wins. He’s scored 13 decision victories in his 20-win career.

This fight should favor Jotko, especially if he can get it to the mat. Krzysztof Jotko has fought higher caliber competition than Barriault and should get the win as he climbs back up to the top of the division:

“I think this guy is a little different than Amedovski. He’s much better on the ground, has much better wrestling but, like you say, I’ve seen everything. I was at the top, I was down, and now I’m going to the top again and this will be a very, very good night and a good win for me.”

UFC Bet: Krzysztof Jotko (-170)

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-4) vs Arman Tsarukyan (13-2)

  • Olivier Aubin-Mercier (+165)
  • Arman Tsarukyan (-190)

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (OAB) is the underdog for this fight in front of his fellow countrymen. He’s dropped two bouts in a row to high quality competition like Gilbert Burns and Alexander Hernandez. His other two losses also came inside the octagon against Laprize and Ferreira. Eight of OBA’s 11 career wins have come via submission.

Tsarukyan is just a 22-year-old kid turning the sport upside down with his growing set of skills. Although he took the fight on short notice, Tsarukyan took Makhachev the distance. 10 of his 13 wins have come via stoppage. Despite losing a Top 15 ranked lightweight, Tsarukyan has all of the potential in the world to become a star in the UFC.

At just 22 years old, the Russian fighter has a great mindset heading into this fight, which takes place in “enemy territory.”

“First off, I’ll just say that I don’t underestimate him. But in terms of finding some kind of specific point, I think he’s good everywhere. The fact that he has eleven UFC fights, [I’m] not going to underestimate him. Take him seriously. Fighting in enemy territory, however, is not a concern. There’s only one cage, so it’s no problem. There’s not much crazy pressure on [me], because it doesn’t really matter. [I’m] mentally and physically prepared 100%, so that won’t play a factor.”

Not only do I like Arman Tsarukyan’s skillset, I love his mindset heading into a big fight for the young fighter. I believe his striking will be the difference in this contest. If you’re looking to make a UFC 240 bet, my pick would be Tsarukyan.

UFC Bet: Arman Tsarukyan (-190)

Geoff Neal (11-2) vs Niko Price (13-2)

  • Geoff Neal (-310)
  • Niko Price (+260)

Here’s another fight that has all of the makings for “fight of the night.” We have two welterweights that like to finish off their opponents in devastating fashion.

Niko Price is a powerful puncher who isn’t afraid to go toe-to-toe with his opponent. However, that hasn’t always worked out well for him. 10 months ago, Price lost via KO to Alhassan. Yet, that loss was sandwiched between two KO/TKO wins, including his last fight that was four months ago. Nine of Price’s 13 pro wins have come via KO/TKO.

For Neal, this is another step toward the top of the division. He’s really picked up momentum since his win on DWTNCS two years ago. Neal has won three straight fights, including a solid win over Belal Muhammad in January. Neal has a solid kickboxing arsenal and is the more technical striker of the two. Six of his 11 career victories have come via KO/TKO.

I don’t see either man trying to take this fight to the mat. Neal will most likely try to dictate the fight from a distance and pull ahead on points with a consistent volume of strikes. Price will have to try and close the distance. Additionally, Price will need to come from behind and try to connect with one of his patented swings for the fences. I believe Neal will win this fight because he’s a more polished striker. However, these UFC 240 betting odds are a bit too high in my opinion. I give Price a puncher’s chance in this one.

UFC Bet: Geoff Neal (-310)

Cris Cyborg (20-2) vs Felicia Spencer (7-0)

  • Cris Cyborg (-700)
  • Felicia Spencer (+525)

Felicia Spencer is taking on the toughest opponent of her career this weekend. Spencer, who is undefeated, will fight the former champ Cris Cyborg. It’s no surprise that Spencer is the largest underdog of the night. She’s fighting a woman who was once considered the most feared fighter on the planet.

Spencer last fought in May and defeated Megan Anderson via submission. It was the fourth submission win of her career. She has a total of five wins via stoppage.

Cris “Cyborg” Justino was on a 21-fight unbeaten streak before she lost to Amanda Nunes last December via KO. It was her first loss in 14 years. Cyborg is a beast inside the octagon with a UFC record of 4-1. Unfortunately, it appears that Cyborg could be out of the UFC after this fight.

Cyborg will be a free agent after her fight against Spencer. It’s a fact that has caused a lot of grief from UFC’s president Dana White. The two have sparred in the media as White has thrown some serious shade at Cyborg. Justino recently responded to White’s accusations that she’s afraid to rematch Amanda Nunes among other allegations:

 “He’s always lying. I just keep (focus) on myself and keep doing what I’m doing. I know the truth is going to come out.”

Cyborg indicated that she would share more of her feelings after her contract is up. Many pundits believe she will move on to Bellator or fight in another promotion. With that said, Justino needs to maintain focus for this fight. And I think she will.

I don’t see Spencer having success taking Justino down to the mat. And Cyborg is just too powerful in the standup game. Cyborg has 17 KO/TKO wins in her career. I’m going with the UFC 240 betting odds here and taking Cyborg to TKO Spencer in the fight and eventually, KO White in the media afterward.

UFC Bet: Cris Cyborg (-700)

(c) Max Holloway (20-4) vs Frankie Edgar (23-6-1)

  • Max Holloway (-400)
  • Frankie Edgar (+330)

The main event of the night is a matchup that was almost made multiple times over the last few years. For one reason or another, this fight just never came to fruition until now.

Edgar gets another title fight after losing his three previous title shots. At age 37, this is probably his last chance. With that said, this is his last real shot at fighting for a belt. Edgar has gone 3-1 over his last four fights. However, he hasn’t fought in 15 months. As for his upcoming title bout this weekend, Edgar told UFC that believes he can still compete at a high level and win:

“I still think I have the ability to be the best in the world and I get the opportunity to fight for that title in two days and prove that I am the best in the world. If I’m able to achieve it (win the title), it will let me know that what I have done these last (seven) years since I lost the belt haven’t been wasted.”

When we last saw Max Holloway three months ago, he stepped up to the lightweight division (10 pounds heavier) to take on the hard hitting Dustin Poirier for an interim-lightweight title. It was a major step up for one of the sport’s pound-for-pound best. Unfortunately, he came out on the wrong end of a Unanimous Decision result. Now, Holloway returns to the featherweight division to defend his title. His last fight in this weight class was against Brian Ortega last December. It was a highly anticipated showdown that delivered.

Holloway has 15 wins in the featherweight division. He also has a 12-fight win streak at this weight class and has finished off 10 opponents. These stats put Holloway as arguably the best featherweight of all time. Another interesting stat is that this will be the fourth title fight where Holloway has fought in Canada. He’s become a fan favorite despite being from Hawaii. In fact, some fans have dubbed Holloway as Canada’s top fighter.

Although there are many pundits out there who feel that Edgar has a real shot at winning, I just don’t see it. Holloway will have the height and reach advantages, which is a big deal in a striking contest. Edgar might prove to still have some pop in his striking, but I believe Holloway is going to win via TKO. He’s just too talented of a fighter and still in his prime.

UFC Bet: Max Holloway (-400)

UFC 240 Betting Value

The following MMA fighters offer value based on their current UFC 240 betting odds, matchups, and career success:

  • Kyle Stewart (-120) is the slight betting favorite in his fight with veteran Erik Koch (+100). Both men offer betting value, but I like Stewart to win this fight. Koch hasn’t been very active, hasn’t won in a few years, and is having to go up in weight to take on a bigger fighter with some skills.
  • Gillian Robertson (-120) is from Canada and has a better ground game than her opponent Frota (+100). I believe Robertson will take down Frota at-will, control the fight, and get a submission victory. Both women offer betting value.
  • Alexandre Pantoja (-120) is the slight favorite in a tough fight against Deiveson Figueiredo (+100). Both men offer UFC 240 betting value, but I believe Pantoja will edge out Figueiredo due to his grappling skills. Formiga laid out the blueprint for defeating Figueiredo and Pantoja has the skills to follow this plan.
  • Seung Woo Choi (+105) is the slight underdog to Gavin Tucker (-125), but appears to have the advantage in this fight. Choi’s high volume of striking and knockout power will give Tucker a lot of issues. I like Choi to win this fight. However, both men do offer enough UFC 240 betting value.

Final Thoughts on UFC 240

UFC 240 doesn’t have the same buzz or excitement that UFC 239 did. In fact, the two main event fights are rather lackluster. Cyborg is too powerful for Spencer and Holloway is too good for an aging Edgar, who is returning from a long layoff. I feel like these two fights won’t offer a lot of excitement for fans. These two main event fights also offer very little for UFC bettors.

Fortunately, for those looking to make some money off of this event, there are a handful of fights with close UFC betting odds that offer a lot of betting value. I believe the most excitement from UFC 240 will be in the undercard and a few of the prelim fights!

UFC 240 Betting Recap

  • Tanner Boser (-170)
  • Kyle Stewart (-120)
  • Gillian Robertson (-120)
  • Alexandre Pantoja (-120)
  • Seung Woo Choi (+105)
  • Hakeem Dawodu (-385)
  • Viviane Araujo (-245)
  • Krzysztof Jotko (-170)
  • Arman Tsarukyan (-190)
  • Geoff Neal (-310)
  • Cris Cyborg (-700)
  • Max Holloway (-400)
Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site.

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