I’m really surprised that the odds aren’t even higher than -2500 for this prop bet. It’s a rarity that a team has missed their pick in the draft. But, because it happened this century, we still get this wager.
In 2003, the Minnesota Vikings took too long to get their pick in. Minnesota was trying to work out a trade with the Baltimore Ravens and their 15 minute time limit to make the draft selection expired.
The Jacksonville Jaguars rushed to get their pick in as they selected QB Byron Leftwich. The Carolina Panthers followed quickly by taking OT Jordon Gross.
By time the Vikings could get their pick in, they fell two spots in the draft. Fortunately, they were able to get the player they wanted.
As for this prop bet, go with the No option.
Draft Spot Moved Back? –No (-2500)
NFL Draft Trade Prop Bets
The following NFL Draft prop bets are centered on trades during the 1st round.
Will the Falcons Trade the No. 4 Overall Pick?
The Atlanta Falcons are drafting 4th overall and they are “open for business.” The team is keeping all of their options open as to whether they will trade down in the draft or select a player.
“There are still variables involved, so we know the players that we will be discussing there, and we can all anticipate the first three picks, but it has to actually happen. And then from that point we have to weigh the options of, do we trade back compared to the player we could get at 4, or if we trade back, what would be the value.
So we have to weigh all those different variables and all those scenarios so we know the players that we’re talking about. We’ve gone through the different things that can happen. But you never know what is going to happen at that exact moment, but we know the players that we’re talking about.”
From NFL Now: The #Falcons would turn the draft on its head by taking a QB at 4. Right now, they are considering all options — QB, position player, trade out… pic.twitter.com/Ixmo3fwC9D
If Atlanta does remain at the #4 spot, they will most likely take TE Kyle Pitts from Florida. However, if they decide to go all-in on building for the future then the Falcons could also select a young franchise QB to replace Matt Ryan next year like Trey Lance or Justin Fields.
With that said, it would be foolish to pass on Kyle Pitts. He’s one of the best tight ends to come out of college in years. He will start Day 1 for the Falcons and give the offense another weapon.
I think there’s a better chance of Atlanta trading wide receiver Julio Jones, which they are open to discussions, than trading the #4 pick.
Will Falcons Trade No. 4 Overall Pick? –No (-250)
Will the Lions Trade the No. 7 Overall Pick?
I actually think there’s a better chance of the Detroit Lions trading out of or down in the Top 10 than the Falcons. This franchise is in a complete rebuild mode. They were 5-11 last year and pitiful on defense.
“At 7, we do have a cluster of players that we’re comfortable with picking, but at the same time we will be very prepared and also willing to move in either direction. So, we’re still open in those regards, but there are a cluster of players that we would be comfortable with.”
After the Top 3 quarterbacks are selected, along with the best WR, TE and OT, Detroit’s #7 spot could be a great position for teams wanting to jump up and draft Trey Lance or Justin Fields.
The Lions needs more picks to build depth on both sides of the ball and this draft is loaded with at least five QBs that could go in the Top 10. It just makes too much sense for a trade not to happen. But, then again, this is the Lions we’re talking about here. So, put a small wager on the Yes option.
Will Lions Trade No. 7 Overall Pick? –Yes (+135)
Will the Panthers Trade the No. 8 Overall Pick?
Like with the Lions, the Carolina Panthers front office has already come out and said that they were also open to moving down in the Draft. Second year GM Scott Fitterer made the following comments:
“We’re very open to moving back. It just depends on how the first seven picks go. We’ll have to take a look at the players that are available when we pick and how many of those players can help us that we’ve identified, how far we can trade back and still get one of those players without trading out of the [top] level. We don’t want to trade out of a certain level where the talent dips.”
Here’s the problem, if the Lions make a trade then I don’t see the Panthers making one also. Furthermore, Carolina just traded Teddy Bridgewater to the Broncos on Wednesday, April 28th, for a 6th round pick.
So, that removes the Broncos from the equation of trading up to get a QB since they now have Bridgewater and Lock vying for the starting spot.
Additionally, I’m on the side of the fence that believes the Eagles won’t draft a QB this year with Hurts set to take the reigns of the offense. The only other team that could trade up is the Patriots and they might not have to if things fall in place.
I feel more comfortable with the Lions trading than the Panthers. Carolina could really use the 8th pick to add to their young roster. They could end up with the #1 corner in the NFL Draft, which would definitely help the defense.
Will Panthers Trade No. 8 Overall Pick? –No (-200)
Will Allen Robinson Be Traded During Round 1?
Allen Robinson was franchised this offseason by the Chicago Bears and he signed the one year, $18 million dollar deal last month.
The talented wide receiver signed with the Bears in 2018 and has been their best wideout since then. There was some concern that the team could lose Robinson via Free Agency, but they decided to franchise him and Allen didn’t put up much of a fight.
With that in mind, I don’t see the Bears trading Robinson at all. There’s no point. They need him now more than ever especially with Andy Dalton expected to be the starting QB.
Furthermore, the team is expected to draft a defensive player in the 1st round, which means they won’t be adding any weapons in the passing game.
This is clearly a No and the odds should be much higher than -450.
Allen Robinson Traded During Round 1? –No (-450)
Will Jimmy Garoppolo Be Traded During Round 1?
The San Francisco 49ers moved up to #3 in the NFL Draft to select a QB with most pundits believing that will be Mac Jones from Alabama.
I was surprised that no team jumped at this opportunity during the offseason. But, it also makes sense for other teams to wait since the 49ers will be in a more desperate spot after this season if their rookie QB is ready to take over.
If Jimmy G. gets dealt, it will be after the 1st round. As of now, I would say the 49ers appear to be keeping the QB for at least the 2021 season.
Jimmy Garoppolo Traded During Round 1? –No (-400)
Total Round 1 Trades Within Top 10 Picks
Under 1½ 1st Round trades (-200)
Over 1½ 1st Round trades (+150 )
This prop bet requires us to decide whether their will be two or less trades in the Top 10. We looked at the most likely candidates to make a trade in the above prop bets (Falcons, Lions, Panthers).
The #NFLDraft has 7 rounds that take place over 3 days each spring.
I don’t see all three teams making a trade. In fact, I only see one team making a move and that’s the Lions. The Falcons would be better off staying at #4 and taking Pitts at TE. The Panthers would be better off staying at #8 and taking Patrick Surtain II at corner.
Both of those players could become cornerstones for their respective teams.
Although the Over is worthy of a very small flier, the Under is the smart choice here.
Total Round 1 Trades Within Top 10 Picks –Under 1.5 (-200)
Total Round 1 Trades?
Over 4½ 1st Round trades (-155)
Under 4½ 1st Round trades (+115)
Before we make our selection, let’s take a look at the previous half dozen NFL Drafts to see how many trades were made in the 1st round:
2020 NFL Draft: There were only four trades in the first round of last year’s draft. And, the 49ers made two of those trades.
2019 NFL Draft: This year’s draft saw six trades take place in the opening round.
2018 NFL Draft: Three years ago, this draft saw plenty of action with six trades as quarterback needy teams like the Bills, Cardinals and Ravens made moves to get their franchise QB.
2017 NFL Draft: Eight trades were made this year with Houston and Kansas City snagging franchise QBs in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.
2016 NFL Draft: Four trades were made in this draft. It certainly didn’t compare to 2017, but it was more than 2015.
2015 NFL Draft: In regards to first round trades, this was one of the most boring opening rounds of the NFL Draft. There were only two trades made in 2015.
In the last six years, there were 30 trades made in the 1st round of these NFL Drafts. That’s an average of five trades per draft.
Last year, the O/U was set at 5.5 total trades for the first round. As you can see, it came in Under that mark.
This year, I think we will come in Under 5 trades once again. That’s largely due to the trades that have already been made this offseason.
Take the Under 4.5 trades and the solid betting value of +115 odds.
Total Round 1 Trades? –Under 4.5 (+115)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed "King of the Blog" in his first year with the site. ...
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