The fight of the year arrives on August 26th, when UFC star Conor McGregor prepares to battle boxing legend Floyd Mayweather Jr. It’s been an uber-hyped affair with a lot of rumors and chatter, but it’s actually turning into a reality in about two months.
While the actual weight a matchup between one of the best boxers in history and a guy who has never boxed professional is debatable, the star power is not. The sheer possibility of McGregor landing a surprise knockout blow to Money Mayweather has the betting action heating up for the fight, and will surely draw the masses to tune in live on Pay-Per-View.
McGregor vs. Mayweather – Odds to Win
Vegas doesn’t think it’ll be that close of a contest, though, as most of the top boxing betting sites are confidently backing the undefeated Mayweather (49-0) in his plight to get to 50-0. Check out the latest McGregor vs Mayweather odds at Bovada:
Mayweather to Win (-550)
McGregor to Win (+375)
These weak odds are a far cry from where we were when the conversation first got started. Mayweather opened as a massive -1100 favorite on most boxing betting websites, while we still get more playable odds at BetOnline (McGregor a fun +550 underdog) and other sites.
There is obviously some solid value to be had with Notorious, but the value is seemingly dipping by the day. If you can find a viable and reliable website that sports really killer odds for McGregor as an underdog, we’re all for it. But right now it doesn’t really pay to go hard at McGregor at the reputable sites like BetOnline and Bovada.
Pick: Mayweather (-550)
The good news is betting purely on a winner is far from the only betting that can and will go down for this fight. That’s true due to McGregor’s shrinking playability, but also because sites like BetOnline and Bovada are offering some fun McGregor vs. Mayweather prop bets we all will need to consider.
One easy prop bet is simply how long this fight will last, regardless of what the outcome will be. Early indications are the more experienced Mayweather is unlikely to get knocked out by McGregor, while an inexperienced boxer like McGregor may not be a great bet to last a full 12-round fight.
Bovada puts the early Over/Under at 9.5 rounds:
Over 9.5 (+125)
Under 9.5 (-175)
The Under is the logical bet here, as the only way Notorious is coming away with an upset win is some magical KO early in this bout. What’s more likely, however, is Notorious gets gassed well before this fight can end and Mayweather gets some type of KO, whether it be KO or TKO.
Mayweather is much more known for avoiding KOs and merely out-punching his competition and lasting a full 12-round bout, but it’s tough to see McGregor lasting 12 full rounds, regardless of the reason.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-175)
Will McGregor vs. Mayweather Go the Distance?
That bleeds right into another bet at Bovada, that strips away all the other result possibilities and offers a straight up bet on whether or not we’ll see this fight go a full 12 rounds. The outcome isn’t in the equation here, so we can just put money down on whether McGregor can hack it until the end:
It’s going to take a lot for McGregor to either not get knocked out early due to his inexperience or simply avoid being gassed in a bout he’s probably not truly prepared for. Our money would be on this fight not lasting past 9.5 rounds, which obviously puts the onus on the “no” here. The value lies with us aiming high for a 12-round bout and we don’t need to pick a winner, so we can absolutely toss a hedge bet here. We’re still using logic here and not buying a full 12-round bout. That obviously includes the slim chance McGregor lands a surprise KO, too.
Pick: No (-300)
If we don’t love the value in betting the Over/Under for the rounds, we can tackle this bout by actual rounds at Bovada. That gives us a slew of options for either fighter, as well as the fight leading to a Draw (+5000) or either fighter winning via points (+200 for Mayweather, +1600 for McGregor).
Considering McGregor is not the favorite in what should be an uphill battle, few of his bets offer much intrigue. His best avenue to an upset win is probably an early KO, however. That puts his +1600 odds to win in rounds one or two in play, while we can also consider betting on an early McGregor win in round three (+2500) or round four (+3300).
The most viable bet lies with Money Mayweather, however. That’s either going to be on points, a flat out win through 12 rounds (+1600) or an early KO. All of Mayweather’s round bets offer the same upside, though, which can be good or bad. At that point it just comes down to luck of the draw in trying to predict precisely which round Mayweather gasses out.
Something like Mayweather to win in round four seems like a solid bet, but keep in mind the bet is the same across the board for Money Mayweather, so the playability is solid for every round.
Pick: Mayweather in Round 4 (+1600)
Method of Victory
Bovada offers a Method of Victory bet, too, with the favorite understandably being Mayweather winning by KO, TKO or DQ. That’s the leading bet, but here are all of your options for fight night:
Mayweather by KO, TKO or DQ (-175)
Mayweather by Decision or TD (+200)
McGregor by KO, TKO or DQ (+500)
McGregor by Decision or TD (+1600)
Draw or Technical Draw (+5000)
If Vegas is right in backing Mayweather, the best bets are picking a Mayweather win or just calling an overall draw. The draw call is not impossible and carries the best value, so we certainly can chase that. We can tie that in with a Mayweather Decision bet, which helps us hedge our bets a bit incase the fight does go the distance.
There is obviously way more value elsewhere, but Mayweather winning straight up one way or another still makes the most sense. We actually get more playability in this bet than we do in the straight up fight pick, so it’s a good one to target if we’re firm believers in Mayweather.
Pick: Mayweather (-175)
Bovada and BetOnline – among other sites – both offer bets on how this fight will fare in terms of PPV success. The bets are pretty similar, but BetOnline arguably offers a little more overall playability:
Still, the last big Mayweather fight was close to 5 million and 1.7 million tuned in for McGregor’s last big bout in the UFC versus Eddie Alvarez. Considering the cross-sport hype and stardom involved, shooting for the Over (-140 at Bovada) makes sense.
Pick: Over (-115)
Will the Fight Even Happen?
Despite this fight being officially announced as a done deal and given an August 26th fight date, there are some who still think it’s not truly finalized. We won’t know for sure until we start seeing PPV advertisements and we can’t trust it until we’ve got our popcorn and the bell officially rings, but it’s pretty cemented at the moment.
Regardless, BetOnline offers a fun bet on whether or not the fight will still take place as scheduled on August 26th:
There is some fun value here, as fights do get cancelled randomly for many reasons. Fighter injury, making weight, venue issues – you name it – can cause hiccups. A date change may not mean the fight is off, but +400 odds for the fight to not make this date isn’t a bad gamble.
Ultimately, the fight is just two months away and there’s not a ton of logic supporting this thing randomly being axed.
Pick: Yes (-600)
There are some other fun bets we can target for this insanely hyped bout, as we can bet on which fighter tweets more the month of the fight (August), with McGregor pulling in as the early favorite (-160) and Mayweather providing the value (+130).
Anyone who pays attention to these guys knows McGregor is far more active on social media. Mayweather isn’t a bad stab given the value, but one quick look at each fighter’s tweet count (6,182 for Notorious since 2011 and 7,549 for Mayweather since 2009) shows the tweet rate favors McGregor.
Pick: McGregor (-160)
Total Combined Tweets
In that same breath, we can lean both ways and bet on the total number of tweets by both fighters, combined. BetOnline has a pretty conservative tweet count for August alone and has a leveled playing field:
Over 40.5 tweets (-115)
Under 40.5 tweets (-115)
Looking back at June alone (19 days deep), Notorious was active on Twitter 12 times. If we double that for the rest of the month, that gives us 24 twitter moves and gets us over halfway to where we need to be. Both fighters get 26 opportunities to tweet out and eclipse this Total in August, making it a solid bet to chase.
Pick: Over 40.5 tweets (-115)
Pre-Fight Physical Confrontation?
We can also freely bet on whether or not Mayweather and McGregor will get into it physically ahead of their huge bout. Both fighters are no stranger to theatrics or trash talk, so it would not be shocking to see them at worst shove each other or have a punch or two get thrown.
BetOnline gives us some solid value with the early odds on this bet:
This could obviously go either way, as both fighters probably respect each other despite all of their trash talk. That being said, nothing drums up interest in a fight more than the fighters selling the idea that they hate each other. We’re chasing the value here.
Pick: Yes (+260)
McGregor vs. Mayweather II?
The last big McGregor vs. Mayweather prop bet to considering wagering on is whether or not we’ll get a rematch. That likely all depends on how this first bout goes. If Notorious knocks Mayweather out or at least makes this a very interesting fight, it would make sense for both sides to capitalize on a successful fight and try to do it again.
BetOnline does not love the chances of that happening, however:
This is most likely just a money grab for both sides, and that’s a fact that can support or work against a rematch. Mayweather’s pride would probably promote a rematch if he got KO’d, while Notorious serving up a competitive bout could also fuel a rematch.
This fight needs to fare well in the eyes of PPV buyers, first and foremost. Regardless of the outcome, this can’t be a trash fight and Mayweather can’t dominate it. Mayweather vs. Pacquiao was criticized as a boring fight, so we need a KO win by McGregor or Notorious to at least hold his own.
Most fighting fans – us included – would love to see that happen, but it’s not overly logical. And unless it does, a rematch wouldn’t make much sense.
Pick: No (-800)
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