With the UFC 229 superfight just a few days away, there’s a lot of excitement, hype, and betting action over the main event of the evening. One particular UFC 229 prop bet has drawn a great deal of buzz and a wide range of opinions is – how will the McGregor vs Nurmagomedov fight will end?
Here are the top sites we recommend for betting on the McGregor vs Nurmagomedov fight:
According to 5Dimes, we have a few betting options on potential fight outcomes to explore: Draw, Decision, Submission or TKO/KO. Let’s examine these options further, to see which ones have value and which ones to avoid.
The Fight Will End In a Draw
Unlike sports entertainment and boxing, MMA tends to get things right as most fights usually have a clear-cut winner.
However, there are a few occasions where the fights don’t end the way the crowd, commentators and social media experts believe they should end. Even in those instances, there still tends to be a winner and not a Draw.
For McGregor vs Nurmagomedov, the option of wagering on the fight to end in a Draw is +8500. That’s a high number that could pay off big, but the odds of a Draw happening are virtually zero. For starters, neither McGregor nor Nurmagomedov have ever had a Draw in their careers.
If you look at the rest of the fight card, there’s only been four times that any of the 24 fighters have ended up with a Draw. If you add up the total amount of professional fights between all 24 fighters, you come up with 501 fights.
So, only 4 of those 501 fights ended in a Draw. That’s just a small sample size, but a great example of how rarely an MMA fight ends in a Draw.
UFC 229 Betting Advice: Avoid this option and save your money for a different bet.
The Fight Will End In a Decision
There are many pundits and fans who feel this fight may go the distance. Oddsmakers don’t quite see it that way, but they do offer some value with their lines.
Currently, Conor McGregor is getting +1240 odds to win this fight via Decision. Khabib Nurmagomedov is getting odds of +320. This is largely due to the fact that in Nurmagomedov’s 26 professional fights, 10 of them have ended in a Decision. For McGregor, only two of his pro fights have gone the distance.
If you are set on betting that this fight goes the distance then check out the following Decision Props:
Of Khabib’s 10 Decision wins, all of them have come via Unanimous Decision. Only 1 of McGregor’s 2 Decision outcomes have come via Unanimous Decision.
Khabib has never had a fight end in a Majority or Split Decision. McGregor had one fight end with this result and it was his rematch against Nate Diaz in August 2016.
UFC 229 Betting Advice: If the fight does go the distance and ends with a Decision, the smart bet would be Nurmagomedov to win via Unanimous Decision (+425). I would also suggest taking a flier on McGregor to win via UD (+1450), as there is some value there.
The Fight Will End In a Submission
It’s hard to imagine McGregor winning this fight via Submission. Oddsmakers agree, as the odds for this result are +2300. In his career, Conor only has 1 submission victory and has lost 3 times via submission.
Nurmagomedov at +320 has more of a realistic chance at winning via submission as he’s finished 8 opponents in this fashion. Some pundits believe that this is how the fight will end – Khabib forcing McGregor to tap out after grinding him down.
UFC 229 Betting Advice: Avoid the appeal of McGregor’s +2300 submission line as this is highly unlikely. There is value with Nurmagomedov winning via submission with a +320 line.
The Fight Will End In a TKO/KO
A TKO/KO is the most likely outcome to this fight according to pundits, fans and betting sites. In McGregor’s 24 pro fights, he has 18 wins via TKO/KO. For Nurmagomedov, 8 of his 26 wins have come via KO/TKO. Conor’s last TKO/KO victory was his last fight against Alvarez in November 2016. Khabib’s last TKO/KO was in April 2016, which was 4 fights ago.
The betting odds for this outcome are: McGregor (+185) and Nurmagomedov (-405).
As you can see, oddsmakers believe that this is the most likely outcome for the UFC 229 main event.
UFC 229 Betting Advice: For McGregor to win this fight, he will need to do so via TKO/KO. His chances of winning via Decision are low, and via Submission are next to nil. Nurmagomedov has a great chance at winning via TKO/KO because he could ground and pound McGregor especially later in the fight.
How Will the McGregor vs Nurmagomedov Fight End?
I see this superfight ending in one of two ways: McGregor TKO/KO (+185) or Nurmagomedov Unanimous Decision (+425).
Nurmagomedov has the skills to wear down McGregor and keep him on the mat for 5 rounds. Additionally, he has the wrestling ability to takedown Conor at any moment and turn the tide of the fight.
I believe McGregor would do enough to protect himself on the ground and last the full 5 rounds. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough to win the fight with the judges.
For McGregor to win, he will need to lay some hands on Nurmagomedov especially when “The Eagle” is coming forward for a takedown. I believe Conor has the speed to do this. Additionally, if they get into the later rounds and Khabib slows down at all, McGregor’s hand speed could end the fight right then and there.
UFC 229 Prediction: I believe this fight will end via TKO/KO with McGregor defeating Nurmagomedov. Conor has the hand speed and power to stop this fight in one punch. I expect him to catch Nurmagomedov at some point in the 2nd or 3rd round unless Khabib makes a silly mistake in the opening moments of the fight and gets floored like Jose Aldo did against McGregor in 2015.