MLB Home Run Leader Odds: 5 Sleepers to Consider Betting On

By in Sports & Betting on

Chicks dig the long ball. So, do MLB bettors if the price is right. We can bet on virtually anything these days, and when we start tossing in a fun stat like home runs into the “I can make money off of that” conversation, it gets even more interesting.

That’s right, if you weren’t aware already, there are already MLB home run leader odds available on several MLB betting sites, with BetOnline currently hosting some of the best, most up to date odds. The beauty is in the upside, plus the fact that it’s still early and any of these top contenders could end up breaking away from the pack and becoming serious forces to close the year.

We always want to factor parks, scheduling, health and talent into the equation, but as things stand the biggest thing we want to eye is upside. Which bats have the most going for them and are far enough behind in the odds department to potentially give us the biggest bang for our buck? Let’s take a look at the latest HR leader odds and see which sleepers make for the most tantalizing bets.

2017 Home Run Leader – Odds to Win

  • Aaron Judge – New York Yankees (+450)
  • Giancarlo Stanton – Miami Marlins (+475)
  • Khris Davis – Oakland Athletics (+650)
  • Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals (+800)
  • Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies (+1000)
  • Nelson Cruz – Seattle Mariners (+1400)
  • Chris Davis – Baltimore Orioles (+1600)
  • George Springer – Houston Astros (+1600)
  • Eric Thames – Milwaukee Brewers (+1800)
  • Miguel Sano – Minnesota Twins (+2000)
  • Anthony Rizzo – Chicago Cubs (+2000)
  • Joey Gallo – Texas Rangers (+2000)
  • Kris Bryant – Chicago Cubs (+2000)
  • Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels (+2500)
  • Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals (+2500)
  • Adam Duvall – Cincinnati Reds (+2500)
  • Justin Bour – Miami Marlins (+3300)
  • Manny Machado – Baltimore Orioles (+3300)
  • Scott Schebler – Cincinnati Reds (+3300)
  • Edwin Encarnacion – Cleveland Indians (+4000)
  • Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds (+4000)
  • Mark Reynolds – Colorado Rockies (+4000)
  • Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks (+4000)
  • Marcell Ozuna – Miami Marlins (+4000)
  • Michael Conforto – New York Mets (+4000)
  • Jake Lamb – Arizona Diamondbacks (+4000)
  • Jay Bruce – New York Mets (+5000)
  • Yonder Alonso – Oakland Athletics (+5000)
  • Logan Morrison – Tampa Bay Rays (+5000)
  • Corey Dickerson – Tampa Bay Rays (+6600)
  • Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays (+6600)

Aaron Judge leads the way as the favorite to pace the entire league in home runs and few can scoff at that considering the Yankees slugger has been absolutely mashing all year. He currently leads all of baseball with 18 deep balls and he doesn’t look ready to slow down anytime soon.

Stanton is an impressive masher in his own right and has one of the more effortless swings in baseball. He pulls into second place, yet he’s far out of first place (when you factor in the competition) with 15 deep balls. Khris Davis is second in the league with 17, tying with Texas masher, Joey Gallo.

Needless to say, some guys are being valued more right now for their big name and ability to rack up homers, and not necessarily so much for playing in favorable parks or being near the front of the pack right now.

We want to consider this largely because it opens the door to players with weaker odds to rise up the ranks, while in that same breath noting hitters who have ground out HR-winning campaigns before in the past. The guys that have done that and also make this list are Nolan Arenado, Bryce Harper, the aforementioned Giancarlo Stanton and Paul Goldschmid (for AL). For the NL side, we always want to keep our eyes peeled for the likes of Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz and Jose Bautista.

5 HR Leader Sleepers

We know who the favorites are and who has the best odds, but who provides the best value? To us, that’s going to be the guys who can really crank it, are already in an enviable spot compared to their fellow HR leaders and also offer some upside when it comes to their odds:

George Springer – Astros (+1600)

Springer is one of the first big names to pop off of this HR odds list, as he’s absolutely wrecking right now as part of a red hot Astros lineup. Houston looks like the best team in the majors these days, and the hard-hitting Springer feels like a huge reason why.

Springer is just two home runs behind the league lead as things stand, yet you’re getting way more value with him compared to Judge or even Bryce Harper. This isn’t new territory for Springer, either, as the Astros star outfielder poured in a career high 29 dingers a year ago.

This season has Springer in his best form yet and should have him hitting on new career highs. Depending on exactly where 2017 takes him, that just might get him the MLB home run title. Considering the solid value with Springer, he’s a strong bet to unseat Judge before the year is up.

Eric Thames – Milwaukee Brewers (+1800)

We’re getting slightly more value with Thames, who has been quite the story as a power hitter who flamed out of the league, wrecked in Korea and has crushed ever since arriving in Milwaukee. Thames has hit a snag due to injuries lately, but he’s still just three dongs out of first place and is another insane HR tear away from wrestling the top spot away from Judge and the other top competition.

Thames could potentially make for an even better story than he already is, as he’s got the perfect setting to launch balls left and right in the ever-hittable Miller Park. Adding to the allure is Milwaukee’s potent offensive lineup, which has played a big role in the Brew Crew vying for the top of the NL Central. Should the team stay hot and try to fend off the Cubs and Cardinals for an unexpected division title, Thames’ power should end up being a huge reason why.

Justin Bour – Miami Marlins (+3300)

Another interesting story is Bour, who offers roughly double the payout upside of Springer and Thames can. Despite the value being way better with the Miami slugger, he still is just two long balls out of the lead in the majors and surprisingly has went yard more than teammate Giancarlo Stanton (15).

The race is tight even on his own team, but Bour has rocketed up the home run rankings lately, due to impressive splits against southpaws. Bour did land on the DL recently due to an ankle issue and he plays in a park that tends to be more favorable to pitchers, but the power he’s displayed can’t be ignored.

Mark Reynolds – Colorado Rockies (+4000)

Reynolds is another interesting, albeit fairly unlikely sleeper to monitor. The 33-year old masher is in what could be a career year with the Rockies, but he’s been known for his power in the past. Reynolds dropped 44 home runs with Arizona back in 2009 and has topped 20+ homers seven times in his lengthy career.

The fact that Reynolds’ power is showing up better than ever in his age 33 season is mildly surprising, but he routinely plays in Coors Field. With a positive park factor and a hot-swinging bat, Reynolds might be one of the funnest HR sleepers to consider betting on this year.

Corey Dickerson – Tampa Bay Rays (+6600)

Chris Davis has won before and Paul Goldschmidt offers solid value, but both are tied with the hot-hitting Dickerson, who right now offers the best value in this entire group. Easily Tampa Bay’s best power hitter right now, Dickerson has impressed by slashing .333 on the year to go with his 13 dongs.

Dickerson is not a flash in the pan, as he put up 24 homers in his first season with the Rays last year and showcases plenty of pop during his time in Colorado (39 total home runs). This is shaping up to be a career year for the 28-year old, while a playing in a pitcher’s park hasn’t at all slowed him down (6 home runs at home).

It’s still debatable if Dickerson can keep up this torrid pace and get to the top of the HR mountain, but he is leaving a blazing trail behind him right now and he’s ready to post his best numbers ever. With crazy +6600 odds, he’s at least worth a flier bet to see if his awesome run can lead him to the top of the league.

Which Sleeper is Best?

Aaron Judge is a fine choice to run away with the home run crown this year, but any of these five sleepers has a solid chance and also would offer much more betting value. Corey Dickerson is worth a flier bet no matter how much confidence you have in him, but in this group, Springer makes the most sense.

Houston is crushing right now and Springer’s heavy bat is a huge reason why. Currently just two homers out of the MLB lead, Springer could quickly see his odds go from extremely playable to aligning with the top three options in the league. Dickerson is the high upside play to consider, but Springer very easily could get you where Aaron Judge’s odds suggest he’s going, but with much more value.

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