The 2019 NFL Draft is almost here and there’s plenty of buzz heading into this event that starts on April 25th. By all accounts, this draft has become one of the most defensive heavy classes in recent memory with plenty of franchise-changing talent ready to make that next step to the NFL. With that said, NFL betting sites have numerous draft prop bets available for bettors looking to wager on the 2019 NFL Draft. Let’s take a look at the most popular NFL Draft prop bets, identify some betting value and see where we can make some money.
When looking at most of the mock drafts, defensive players are coming off the board in the 1st round at a rapid pace. BetOnline has a prop bet that sets the Over/Under of 1st round defensive players at 16.5:
With so much talent coming from the defensive side of the ball, I believe we will surpass the 16.5-mark on Thursday night. When taking a look at some of the more credible draft analysts out there, we see an average of 18 to 19 defensive players being taken in the 1st round. Keep in mind, once a run of players gets going, other teams join in on the draft trend.
The defensive line will be the first position to have a run of picks due to the number of highly talented players coming out this year. With that said, I would expect in the middle of the round that defensive backs and linebackers will start coming off the board as well.
MyBookie has a similar prop bet to the one above, as the online betting site set a spread for the Defensive vs Offensive number of players drafted in the 1st round:
With only 32 draft picks, a spread of 3.5 is actually pretty reasonable. I believe that there will be at least 18 defensive players taken in the 1st round, which means only 14 offensive players will be drafted. However, that will cover the spread. But, anything under 18 defensive players will result in not covering the 3.5 spread. There’s not a lot of wiggle room with this bet. The value is in taking the Offensive option of +3.5, but I’m sticking with my prediction of 18 players drafted from the defensive side of the ball.
Some of this year’s elite defensive players are expected to dominate the top of the draft. Among those future NFL stars are: Nick Bosa and Quinnen Williams. There’s a lot of chatter that one of these two defensive studs could sneak up the board and go first overall. BetOnline has the following props regarding where these two athletes will be drafted:
Nick Bosa spent most of the 2018 NCAAF season as the consensus number one pick for this year’s draft. However, after suffering a core injury during the season, he only played 3 games. Nevertheless, that didn’t stop draft analysts and scouts from declaring Bosa as the best prospect this year. In his 3 games, Bosa finished with 4 sacks. The son of former 1st round pick John Bosa and the younger brother of Chargers defensive lineman Joey Bosa, Nick is expected to carry on the Bosa family name in the NFL and have a lot of success for whichever team drafts him.
For this prop bet, you have to go with Under 2.5. There’s no way that Bosa makes it past the 2nd overall pick. If anything, he should still be taken #1 overall, but the Arizona Cardinals are being rumored to want Kyler Murray instead.
Quinnen Williams leaves Alabama after his redshirt sophomore year where he put up some stellar numbers for a defensive tackle that’s 6’4” and 295 pounds. He finished the year with 8 sacks and 19.5 tackles for a loss. He also played in two National title games and was a factor in both. Not only can he collapse a pocket on the QB, but he also is a solid run stuffer. ESPN has tabbed him as a “next generation” tackle. He’s a Top 3 talent, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will go in the Top 3.
This bet is one of the harder ones to figure out. Williams could go 3rd to the Jets or 4th to the Raiders. The Jets do already have DT talent, so I lean toward the Jets skipping Williams and going for an edge rusher like Josh Allen. With that said, I’m taking the Over 3.5 for this bet. I believe Williams goes 4th overall to the Raiders.
With Williams and Bosa getting a lot of attention, we can’t forget other defensive talents like Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, and Ed Oliver. MyBookie has prop bets regarding where these three defensive stars will go in the NFL Draft:
As mentioned above, I believe the Jets are going to go with Josh Allen from Kentucky with the 3rd overall pick. The Jets need to improve their pressure from the Edge and Josh Allen is the man for that task. The Kentucky LB finished his senior year with 17 sacks, which gave him a total of 31.5 sacks for his career. He also had 88 total tackles last year, 5 forced fumbles and 21.5 tackles for a loss. He was the SEC defensive player of the year and won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy for the best defensive player in the nation.
With that said, there’s no way that Allen falls past the Oakland Raiders at #4. If the Jets decide to take Quinnen Williams instead of Allen then the Raiders will snatch him up. So, for this wager, under 4.5 is the betting option to take even if there are better odds on the Over.
Of the top defensive players, Ed Oliver is the hardest one to predict where he will be taken. And, a lot of that has to do with whether or not teams will move up to take a QB in the Top 10. As of now, most mock drafts have 2 QBs going in the Top 7, which means that Ed Oliver will most likely be the elite defensive player that falls some.
He’s easily a Top 5 talent, but team needs and other players like Allen, Williams, and Bosa will determine where Oliver ends up. The former Houston Cougars DT could’ve come out after his sophomore year and been drafted in the Top 5, but he decided to go back to school. His numbers dipped in his junior year and that also had an impact on his stock.
In this draft, Oliver is predicted to go anywhere from 6th through 10th, which makes this prop bet a hard one to pick. Fortunately, the odds are even with both options. With that said, Ed Oliver has been linked a lot with Buffalo at the #9 pick. The Bills have also been rumored to want to trade back in the draft. Either way, I don’t see Oliver being drafted before the 7th pick in the draft, which is Jacksonville. I don’t believe the Jaguars will take him, but I also don’t see anyone in the Top 6 drafting him.
For this bet, take the Over 6.5 as Oliver will probably be closer to 10 than 6 in the draft.
When you look at his collegiate production for Mississippi State, Montez Sweat was one of the best defensive players in the game. In his two years with the Bulldogs, following a transfer from Michigan State, Sweat finished with 22.5 sacks, 101 total tackles, and 30 tackles for a loss. At the combine, he set a record for defensive linemen in the 40-yard dash at 4.41 seconds.
Sweat is one of the top edge rushers in the draft, but his medical tests showed a preexisting heart condition, which has his draft stock plummeting. Sweat won’t attend the NFL Draft this year because of this disappointing health news. As for this bet, the payout is terrible, but it’s easily going to be Over 7.5. There’s no way Sweat goes in the Top 10 for this draft now.
This bet is going to be a challenge. Depending on which mock draft you look at, there’s a different corner projected to be the first pick taken at this position: Williams, Murphy, and Baker.
Greedy Williams had a stellar redshirt freshman year with 6 INTs, which led the SEC. However, his redshirt sophomore year saw a dip in numbers. Nevertheless, he’s a consensus All-American and a 2-time All-SEC player. He also has the height that coaches crave for at 6’3”.
Byron Murphy, out of Washington, bounced back in his redshirt sophomore year after missing 7 games in 2017. He finished with 4 INTs last year, 1 FF, 1 TD, and 58 total tackles. He doesn’t have the height as Williams does, but he does have the physical play that will translate into the NFL.
Lastly, Deandre Baker from Georgia is the other DB who’s been mocked as the first player taken at this position. Baker leaves Georgia after playing 4 years and tallying 7 career INTs. He could’ve come out last year, but decided to return for his senior season. Baker stepped up his performances in the big games like the Rose Bowl. He also won the Jim Thorpe Award for the best DB in college football.
Williams is clearly the betting favorite, but Baker offers the best betting value for this prop bet. However, the NFL is always looking for bigger corners to matchup against tall receivers in this league. And, LSU has churned out top defensive backs for years now. Tre White for the Buffalo Bills was drafted in the 1st round two years ago and he’s become a franchise corner. Greedy Williams has that potential and is the smart bet for this NFL Draft prop bet.
Even with the defense being the main focus of this year’s NFL Draft, there are still some offensive players that can define the 2019 NFL Draft, especially at the QB position. BetOnline asks the question of how many QBs will be drafted in the 1st round on April 25th:
For most of 2019, Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins have been the two “can’t miss” QBs that were definitely being taken in the 1st round. The only question was when they would be selected. I will dig deeper into their draft spots further below.
For this bet, we have to ask ourselves if two more QBs will be taken in the 1st round. After checking many of the reputable mock drafts, and reading through the latest buzz, there’s a great chance that we get 4 QBs in the 1st round this year. In addition to Murray and Haskins, draft experts are predicting that Daniel Jones from Duke and Drew Lock from Missouri will also go in the 1st round. That’s why the Over is such a betting favorite.
Murray, Haskins, and Jones can all go within the top half of the draft, which leaves Lock to get selected at the bottom of the 1st round. Right now, some draft pundits are predicting Lock to go to Green Bay with the 30th pick. I don’t think he will make it that far as I believe someone will trade up to get him in the ’20s. Could we see the Patriots go for Tom Brady’s successor?
Both BetOnline and MyBookie have a prop bet asking if the Top 2 picks in the draft will be QBs:
As mentioned, the top 2 QBs coming into the NFL offseason were Murray and Haskins. However, many draft pundits are now picking Daniel Jones to come off the board ahead of Haskins. Nevertheless, there’s no way that 2 QBs will be taken with the first two picks of this draft. For starters, the 49ers at #2 Have Jimmy G. as their franchise QB. The Jets at #3 have Sam Darnold who they just drafted last year #3 overall. And, the Raiders have Carr at QB and bigger holes to fill elsewhere. So, even if any of these teams traded up with the 49ers, it wouldn’t be for a QB.
This bet is pretty easy to figure out. It’s definitely No!
With most mock drafts and scouting reports, the top 2 QBs heading into the NFL Draft are Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins. Murray can potentially turn the entire draft upside down if the Arizona Cardinals decided to take him first overall. Additionally, Haskins is considered the most pro-ready QB in this class, but he’s expected to go somewhere later in the Top 10 according to BetOnline or possibly fall further down the board. Let’s examine these two players’ draft possibilities further.
Murray is a real-life video game when he steps on the field. He’s fast, quick, smart and has a rocket for an arm. He might not be the biggest QB in the draft, but he is the most exciting one. With that said, his name has been linked with the Arizona Cardinals at #1 overall. Apparently, the Cardinals are ready to ship out Josh Rosen who they selected in the first round of last year’s draft. New head coach Kingsbury believes that Murray will be a better fit for his high octane offense.
Personally, I believe this is a huge mistake for the Cardinals unless they can get good value back in a trade of Rosen. As for this bet, the safe play is Under 2.5 with the expectation that Murray is taken first overall in the draft.
Haskins put up incredible numbers for Ohio State last year as he finished 3rd in the Heisman Trophy race. Haskins finished with 5,396 passing yards and 54 TDs to just 9 INTs. He also had 4 rushing TDs to give him a total of 58 TDs on the year. Dwayne Haskins racked up numerous awards throughout his collegiate career and has the frame that NFL teams look for in a QB at 6’3” and 231 pounds.
When the college season ended, and Murray appeared to be heading to play baseball for the Oakland A’s, Haskins was the unanimous #1 QB in the draft and predicted to go to the New York Giants at #6 overall. Unfortunately, Murray changed his mind and decided that he wanted to play in the NFL instead. That caused a huge shift in the draft as now Murray is expected to go first overall. But, that wasn’t the only thing to hurt Haskins’ draft position.
In addition to Murray entering the draft, Daniel Jones out of Duke has shot up the draft boards and is now projected to be taken by the Giants at #6. So, if Jones goes 6th and Murray 1st then that leaves Haskins to fall down the draft board. And, that’s why online betting sites have him with an O/U of 10.5.
The smart money is on the Over at -150, but I believe there’s a good chance that Haskins doesn’t make it out of the Top 10. The Bills at #9 are looking to trade back and there are some QB needy teams, like the Dolphins at #13, who would need to jump up to take him before he possibly falls to the Bengals at #11. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals traded up 2 spots with the Bills to get Haskins just to make sure nobody else jumps in front of them.
For this bet, I’m taking Under 10.5 as I believe Haskins is more pro-ready than Jones or Murray and there will be teams wanting to jump up into the Top 10 to get him.
In addition to quarterbacks, NFL betting sites have prop bets for the number of running backs and wide receivers taken in the first round:
In my opinion, this could end up being a push. There’s really only 1 RB worthy of a 1st round pick and that is Josh Jacobs from Alabama. He doesn’t have eye popping stats, but he is a three-down back with explosiveness and is perfectly suited for today’s NFL game. Depending on the mock draft, Jacobs is going anywhere from 25th to the top of the 2nd round. I believe he will go in the 1st round and he will be the only back taken on Thursday night in the opening round of the draft. So, that eliminates the Under option. I don’t see two RBs taken in the 1st round, but there will be at least 1. So, go with the Over 1 RB and hope that an NFL team does something unexpected and you can get a big return on your wager. Those +300 odds look great.
Currently, only 2 wide receivers have seen their names mocked in the 1st round of this draft and those are D.K. Metcalf from Mississippi and Marquise Brown from Oklahoma. There’s a slight possibility that A.J. Brown from Mississippi can also be taken late in the 1st round, but that’s more of a guess than a majority of draft pundits expecting it to happen like with the Metcalf and Brown.
Both Metcalf and Brown have been linked to teams in the Top 20, but it remains unclear whether or not these teams will actually draft them. For example, the Bills have been linked to Metcalf at #9, but would be better off trading back with the Dolphins at #13 or Washington at #15 to get extra draft picks and taking Metcalf there.
Nevertheless, I just don’t see 3 receivers being drafted in the 1st round this year. The safe play is on the Under.
Heading into the 2019 NFL Draft, the buzz is all about whether or not the Arizona Cardinals will draft former Oklahoma Sooners QB Kyler Murray 1st overall. If they don’t, then draft experts expect a defensive player like Bosa to be taken. With that said, oddsmakers believe that Murray is the odds on favorite to be taken 1st overall:
For almost all of the 2018 NCAAF season, Nick Bosa was considered the #1 overall pick. However, after Kyler Murray dazzled late in the year, won the Heisman, and looked great in the playoffs, he has become the player expected to be #1 overall in this year’s draft. Although I think Arizona would be foolish to draft another QB this year, the smart money is on Murray.
With the majority of NFL Draft betting sites offering odds on the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, MyBookie took a different approach and is asking who will be drafted 2nd overall:
With Murray locked in as the #1 pick, I believe it’s pretty clear who will be #2 – Nick Bosa. As mentioned, he was predicted to be #1 until Murray took that spot. He has the pedigree, athleticism, and stats to earn him the #2 spot in the draft. If the 49ers decide to skip Bosa then they would probably look at Allen or Williams. With that said, I don’t see San Francisco being that foolish.
It’s become an annual tradition for Alabama Crimson Tide players to be snatched up in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. And, this year will be no different. The Crimson Tide has several star players leaving the collegiate ranks in hopes of becoming NFL superstars. Online betting sites like BetOnline have listed the number of Alabama players taken in the opening round of the 2019 NFL Draft at 2.5.
Over the last two years, Alabama has had 4 players selected in the 1st round of the 2017 and the 2018 NFL Drafts. That trend will end as there won’t be 4 taken in this year’s draft, but there is a strong possibility of three. Defensive Tackle Quinnen Williams will be drafted in the Top 4 as he’s the best DT in this year’s class. Offensive tackle Jonah Williams will be taken within the top 15 picks as he’s widely considered to be one of the top OT’s in the draft.
The third player that could be taken in the 1st round of this year’s draft is running back Josh Jacobs. As I mentioned above, he’s going anywhere from 25th to the top of the 2nd round in most mock drafts. However, I actually believe he will go in the 1st round as he has the skills that will make him a great RB in this modern version of the game. With that said, Jacobs makes it 3 Alabama players for this year’s 1st round and that means taking the Over for this bet.
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